Doing the math: Lewis holds keys to his championship

So, three races to go. The race is still mathematically alive for Robert Kubica, Kimi Raikkonen and Nick Heidfeld, but statistically they are already out of it. For example Kimi would need to win all three remaining races, and if Lewis scores even one point in every remaining race (ie finishes 8th), Lewis would tie Kimi, but with more wins, Lewis would win.

So great effort Kimi, Robert and Nick; but you are statistically eliminated already. And Heikki Kovalainen, he is mathematically eliminated. Even if he won the remaining 3 races, and Lewis scored no points, Lewis would finish ahead of Heikki, so Heikki cannot win the championship anymore this season.

So it comes down to Felipe Massa or Lewis Hamilton. And seven points between them. Yes, last year, Lewis was able to throw it all away with a lead of 17 points, but that was with his team mate racing him to the last race (now Heikki is clearly in supporting role, as he is mathematically eliminates) and Massa has not shown the steel and dedication race-in and race-out as Kimi did last season.

In any case, Lewis has the keys in his hand. He is in control of his destiny. If he finishes ahead of Massa in every remaining race, Lewis is the winner, obviously. But its better than that. Lewis can finish one position behind Massa in every remaining race (Massa first, Lewis second; or Massa second, Lewis third, etc) and still win the championship.

So for Felipe now, it is not enough that his Ferrari be faster than the McLaren for the last 3 races. Felipe can win the remaining three races, and if Lewis comes in second, Lewis takes the championship, by one point. In effect it would be the "Singapore effect" - the six point cushion, due to the pit stop failure with the fuel hose.

What Massa now needs, desperately, is for Kimi to show up, and finish second, behind Massa, but ahead of Hamilton, for at least one of the last three races (and Massa finish ahead of Hamilton for every remaining race). Thats much to ask, especially as Kimi has had a horrendous second half of the season, while he was still competing for the championship. I do doubt it whether Kimi will truly give his 100% now in the last races, when he's crashed out several times quite spectacularly at the end of the race, and still those times (Spa, Singapore) been behind Hamilton when Kimi crashed.. If he can't beat Hamilton when Kimi is racing for his own championship, how much will he push "more" to bring a supporting second position for Massa.

So its looking very promising for Hamilton. But now, what he needs is solid podium finishes to the last three races. What Lewis cannot now do, is to make the mistakes we saw last season, such as beaching his car in China for example..

Yes, it will be exciting, and yes, we could well see the two drivers within a couple of points to the last race, and what more can we honestly ask for in a season, than a competitive season. And that is what we've seen this year.

Alonso also wins in 2008, Singapore review

The Singapore race was impressive on TV, a most beautiful town in the night race view, from the helicopter shots, with the race track sparkling like a diamond necklace..

The qualifying had a somewhat familiar setting. Massa first, Hamilton second and Raikkonen third. The race also seemed to follow predictable form, with Felipe running away from the others and seemed to be headed for an easy win.

Then came Piquet's accident and the safety car. And like so often with the safety car, the resulting pit stops turned into a total lottery. Massa was further caught in an accident with the electronic lights of the Ferrari pit, and left (with the green light showing) while the fuel hose was still attached, wrecking the fuel rig. His race was ruined.

Kimi was also a victim of the unscheduled pit stop. It seemed that Kimi was fuelled for longer than Massa, now he came in right after Massa and had to wait behind Massa at the pit stop, while most cars refuelled and rushed past him, until Kimi got to be refuelled. Still, Kimi was able to claw back from a backmarker position after this horrendous Ferrari pit stop, to a respectable 5th place towards the end of the race. But Kimi's horrible luck again hit him hard, at the end of the race, with 4 laps to go, he crashed into the wall. This is not Kimi's year (his career seems to go see-saw, a great year, a horrible year, a great year, a horrible year; this pattern was true like clock-work at McLaren as well. Is this more Kimi than the car?)

Lewis was able to get out best of the front-runners, and turned it into a safe third place finish, with precious 6 points, with Massa, Kubica and Raikkonen all failing to score.

Meanwhile, the lucky frontrunner out of the pit stops was Alonso. He turned the pace car situation into his advantage, and raced to challenge for the win. Nico Rosberg led at mid-point but was penalized for taking a pit stop when the pits were closed, which then demoted him down, and he finished second.

An exciting race yes, but mostly so because of the pace car mixing up the pack. Still, we saw plenty of overtaking, so this Singapore circuit is definitely worth the racing..

But Hamilton? Now holds a 7 point lead with 3 races to go... He's sitting pretty.

This is how bad Kimi has been since Silverstone..

I went back the blogs to the magical moment of Silverstone, when 3 drivers were tied for 48 points (Hamilton, Massa and Raikkonen) and Kubica was only 2 points behind them.

Obviously Kimi has been falling behind since then. But how had is bad. Since Silverstone, in 5 races, here is how they have performed (in order of best to worst, down to Kimi)

Best Hamilton 30 points (ave 6 per race)
2nd Massa 29 points (ave 5.8 per race)
3rd Kovalainen 27 points (ave 5.4 per race)
4th Kubica 18 points (ave 3.6 per race)
5th Heidfeld 17 points (ave 3.4 per race)
6th Alonso 15 points (ave 3 per race)
7th Vettel 12 points (ave 2.4 per race)
8th - tie
Glock 10 points (ave 2 per race) and
Piquet Jr 10 points (ave 2 per race)
10th Kimi Raikkonen 9 points !!! (ave 1.8 per race)

Since he had clawed up to tie the championship lead by Silverstone, and was poised to run away with his second championship, Kimi was not just weaker than his two tied title-rivals, or weaker than the three other valid championship contenders. Kimi has scored less points than NINE other F1 drivers..

This is not when the season "was over" and Ferrari would have shifted focus to Massa. No, this was from Silverstone where Kimi was tied with Massa in points, and as Ferrari's reigning champion, clearly the number 1 driver.

Its not that the car has been the fault - Massa has essentially tied Hamilton (lost only one point over 5 races to Lewis).

WHAT HAPPENED ?

is he injured ? Ferrari just re-signed him as the highest-paid racer in the world, knowing he won't be winning this season. What is wrong with Kimi. A lousy 9 points over five races when - rookies like Nelson Piquet Jr and Sebastian Vettel outscore him during these races..

Vettel ! Another new winner and first win for another team in Monza

And here is my utter and unreserved congratulations to Sebastian Vettel. Yes, it was a fluke race, the rain making the qualifying a lottery. Still, someone had to drive fastest in that, and Sebastian did.

Then it is not easy to take your first pole position and turn that into a win. Again, Vettel was supremely lucky, in that this was an extremely wet race - to start behind the pace car (no risk of anyone passing him at the start) and also - a drying race, meaning that drivers behind him would have to try on the intermediate tyres before him and thus no risk for him - the opposite would be the total lottery, if it was a dry race getting wetter and anyone behind him might switch at the right moment, and then overtake him. But that won't happen with the drying race as long as his team was vigilant, he held the lead, and they brought him in at the right moment for intermediate tyres.

And of course the biggest benefit, being able to drive without the spray, in a race with a clear view.

The Toro Rosso, the junior team of Red Bull, won a race before Red Bull had. And young Sebastian Vettel did everything perfectly right, and made no mistakes, and won. Briliant. Congratulations. I would have hoped this to have happened back when the team was still a Minardi, but even so, this is magnificent for all the backmarker teams, and any underdogs in any race.

Beatiful. I hope that your career Sebastian will be long and have many many wins in it.

A funny coincidence. The podium at Monza had actually the three first-time winners this year. Vettel the newest winner was first; Heikki the previous first-time winner was second. And Kubica the first of the first-time winners of this season, was third. So the podium was also the celebration of the new talent of F1. Funny to think, that Lewis Hamilton (the likely new champion this season) is no longer new talent ha-ha..

Talking about Lewis. Amazing. He started 15th. He had to take an unscheduled pit stop (bad strategy choice, one-stop strategy, but forced to make second pit stop to change tyrees for intermediate tyres). Yet he finished seventh. Kimi... started 14th, had no problem with pit stops, and finished 9th. Who is the best driver right now? It is quite clearly Hamilton.

And yes, I'm a Finn. But come on, Heikki Kovalainen started second - behind a Toro Rosso of all cars - and finished second. I think I heard the commentator count that Lewis had passed a total of 15 cars during the race. Heikki in the same car was unable to pass one rookie driver in a Toro Rosso.. There is a significant difference in class between these two drivers.

And Massa. I am not impressed. He was there stuck in mid-field, started 6th, finished 6th. Made no progress at all.

So yes, now its a direct race between Hamilton and Massa for the championship. One point between them, Lewis in the lead. It is certainly exciting.~

But more than that, we've had the enormous delight, of six different winners, in four different cars, and three first-time driver winners, and two first-time car manufacturer winners this season. And we still have 4 races to go, including the night race of Singapore, and the often wet Japan and often dramatic Brazil to go.

It is a great season, one for the ages. I am just trying to get over the fact that Kimi is no longer in the hunt for it this season (unless some silly error like Massa and Lewis crashing into each other in the next race or something)

Fate can be so cruel, Spa review, Kimi's hopes crash in late rain

This was the cruel race for Kimi's hopes.

The reigning champion had just had misfortune with the previous race with his engine failing. Had he finished fourth there, he'd have been 8 points behind Lewis and just 2 points behind Massa, going into his favourite race, in Spa. As it was, after the blown engine in Valencia, Kimi was 13 points behind Hamilton and 7 points behind his team mate. After the Belgian GP in Spa, there would only be 5 races left. So if Kimi intended to catch up to his team mate, and show a real challenge for the championship to the end of the season - and get his team to support him as the number 1 driver - this was his must-do race. His must-win race.

But going into Spa, since Kimi started winning, he had won each of the race held in Spa (it is not held every year) ie three times. Thus neither of his rivals had won there. Spa is considered a driver's circuit demanding very brave and precise driving with real chances of overtaking. Just what the champion needed to re-ignite his championship chances. Incidentially, it was now 9 races since Kimi last won (in Spain, at Barcelona)

So, the qualifying did not go to plan. Kimi was down in 3rd position, with Massa in second and Hamilton at Pole Position. And my first comment here - Kimi has been horrendous in qualifying all season. Very much of the race is the qualifying position. Massa has outqualified him better than 2:1..

So, it was a wet race. Right at the start, Kimi takes a bold start and manages to pass Massa on the first lap. He's up to second. Then while the track is still very wet and slippery, Hamilton has a spin, and Kimi gets to his side, and then because Kimi has the better momentum, he out-drags Lewis and takes the lead. Then pushing hard, Kimi builds about a 10 second lead.

This is just what we wanted, a top driver, overtaking, brave moves, slippery, dangerous race, and a magnificent result, which would bring the title race even more close. Had the race finished with Kimi first, Lewis second and Massa third, the championship would have become 76 for Lewis, 70 for Massa and 67 for Kimi. He'd have been 11 points from the lead, with 5 more races to go. Kimi certainly would have know these numbers in his head, as he was comfortably leading the race.

Lewis admitted in post-race interviews that he thought he could not catch Kimi. But the racer instinct in Hamilton rose to the occasion. Lewis gradually worked the gap and towards the end of the race, he had caught Kimi.

So towards the end of the race they expected rain. It arrived four laps to the end. Lewis made a courageous overtaking move - which Kimi partially blocked - which forced Lewis to cut a chicane. He gave the position back to Raikkonen, but right afterwards, Hamilton attacked the Finn and passed the Ferrari in the next turn. This move would later be penalized.

Nonetheless, in the racing situation, Hamilton was now ahead of Raikkonen, leading the race once again. It did not last long. As the rain got heavier, the track turned into a skating rink, and lewis spun, Kimi passed him. Not a moment later, Kimi spun, and Lewis took to the lead again. Then - the cruel of cruellest fate - Kimi crashed.

Of all the cars at the rain in the end, only Kimi crashed. It seemed like fate had decided to crush Kimi's hopes in a most dramatic way. First to let him pass both of his rivals, and lead the race. Then with a couple of laps to go, take it all away.

As it ended, Lewis won, and brought his points total to 80. Massa finished second to 72 points. But Kimi received no points, and left Belgium with 57 points. 23 points behind the championship leader and - painfully - 15 points behind his team mate.

This was the de-facto end to Kimi's champhionship chances as Ferrari has to shift focus now to Massa for the championship. It did make me particularly sad, personally, that the brave race by Kimi did not get its just reward. If he was to crash, then not on this track, not after he had passed both Massa and Lewis to take the lead. This was crushing...

Now, as to the championship, its now a two-man race. I do admire Lewis's style and courage. He reminds me of Montoya when he joined F1, and seemed to invent overtaking places where they were not supposed to exist. If there were points given for overtaking, Lewis would be in the lead of that champhionship too. If I can't have Kimi (or Heikki) lead the championship, then certainly Hamilton is the most amazing driver out there, and I wish the champhionship to him.

Sorry Kimi, two-in-a-row was not to be. I truly hope Kimi is not thinking of retiring, but equally, this season, we haven't seen that Kimi we saw for so many years in the McLarens and now last year at Ferrari. He has not really pushed this year. I don't know why..

PS - the stewards penalized Lewis 25 sec for the advantage he got cutting chicane. I thought that was very rough penalty for Hamilton, but I also recall the rule was perhaps at some point, that you give back your gained position, and wait until after the next turn, to attack the car in front of you again.. if this was the rule (if I remember correctly) then the penalty is fair - for Lewis. It won't bring Kimi's broken car (or lost season) back.. McLaren have appealed the decision and we should know in a few weeks or so..

Valencia, the field may be narrowing

(This is posted three races later, after Monza)

So it was the first race at Valencia's street circuit. The race suggested the worst in street races - a processional. This is NOT what we want in new F1 circuits. We want overtaking. I hope Singapore's new street circuit can provide what Valencia could not. And unless they can change the Valencia circuit, I hope this won't be a regular on the calendar. I can understand that Monaco is a fixture on the calendar, inspite of no viable overtaking in modern F1 cars on that circuit, because of its heritage, but lets not get new circuits that are going to be processionals.

As to the race? Qualifying had Massa first, Lewis second, Kubica third and Raikkonen fourth. After the second pit stops, the order was still Massa, Hamilton, Kubica and Raikkonen. Would have ended that way, until Raikkonen's engine blew up on lap 45.

Massa winning brought him to 6 points of Hamilton. Kubica falls a bit more behind, and is now 15 points behind the leader. Raikkonen drops drastically with no points, and is 13 points behind Hamilton, and perilously already 7 points behind Massa, with only 6 races to go. Spa was turning into the must-win race for Kimi to keep his hopes of Ferrari team support to the end of the season.

Kovalainen wins his "home" race, Hungary

Hungaroring..

This is the nearest thing to a home race for Finnish drivers. There has never been a grand prix race in Finland. But the Hungarians are ethnically related to Finns, and with the Hungarian GP staged in the summer vacation period - and also as its ticket prices, hotel prices etc tend are significantly less than most more established mid-European races such as Silverstone, Spa/Belgium, Hockenheim and Nurmburgring in Germany, etc - the Hungarian GP has been the favourite pilgrimage for Finnish Grand Prix racing fans right from the very first Hungarian GP in 1986, when Finnish former world champion Keke Rosberg was racing in his last season (in a McLaren). Keke did not finish that race, but he did qualify fifth, giving Finns something to cheer about.

Since then, however, the Hungarian GP has been a very Finland-friendly race. Mika Hakkinen won there twice, in 1999 and 2000 (driving for McLaren). Kimi Raikkonen won there in 2005 (driving for McLaren). And now this year, Heikki Kovalainen picked up his maiden win three weeks ago, at Hungaroring (driving for McLaren). And just to be clear, this is not a particularly McLaren-friendly track - Schumacher won three times in a Ferrari (and Barrichello also once), Alonso for Renault, and even Jenson Button got his only win so far for Honda in Hungary. But the Finns have had a great amount of success in Hungary, and their wins obviously have come always with the Silver Arrows of McLaren-Mercedes.

So of the race? Well, it was clearly supposed to be Lewis Hamilton's race, as the McLaren seemed to be particularly well suited for this track and Lewis took pole position with Heikki lining up beside him in second position. Massa in his Ferrari was lined in third and Kimi again far back, in sixth place. Kubica qualified his BMW in fourth.

The race had Massa take a fantastic start, and pass both Heikki and Lewis to lead the race. Since then, it looked like it would become a duel between Lewis and Felipe. The pit stops suggested that going into the second pit stops we would see all the excitement. Until Lewis's tyre failed. Hamilton fell back to 10th place by the time he had pitted and received a new tyre. Lewis fought bravely back to 5th place, which speaks volumes of how competitive the McLaren was in Hungary.

That left the victory into the hands of Felipe Massa. He drove well, with Heikki attempting to catch up to him towards the end of the race, until three laps before the end, on the start/finish straight, Massa's Ferrari engine failed.

That gave the win to Heikki, his maiden win. Another driver who excelled at the race was Timo Glock who finished second for Toyota. And a lukewarm performance by the reigning champion, Kimi finished third due only to the rare technical failures of Lewis and Massa.

As a Finn, for me, it was of course an exceptionally happy moment to cheer the fourth-ever Finnish Grand Prix winner, in Heikki Kovalainen. In his first season at McLaren he took his first win. Neither Mika Hakkinen nor Kimi Raikkonen were able to do that in their first McLaren seasons. Mika was in his fifth season for McLaren when he won in the last race of that season. That was also Mika's seventh season in Formula One overall. Kimi was in his second season at McLaren until he got his maiden win, which was his third season overall. Heikki is obviously in his first season at McLaren, and this is his second season overall in Formula One.

Yes, there was a lot of luck involved, and clearly the McLaren is very competitive this season. Still, this is great news for all Finnish fans of Grand Prix racing - and also for fans of Finnish race drivers in other countries. Obviously I fully hope and expect that Heikki will win many more, and I hope he will manage to win the championship as well in his career later on.

As to this season, it does mean we get a second new winner this season (remembering that Kubica also won his maiden win). And it means that so far, we've had 5 different winners in the 11 races we've had so far. And for skill - there is also Fernando Alonso, the former two-time world champion, in the underperforming Renault, who has the skills easily, if the right amount of luck comes his way, perhaps in the form of rain or pace cars, etc - to also get a win before this magnificent season is done.

So, the pack was shuffled well, and the two leaders in the standings had technical problems. Where does it leave the championship? Lewis still leads with five points ahead of Kimi. Massa is 8 points behind him, and Kubica has fallen to 13 points behind. Nick Heidfeld in the other BMW is 21 points behind Lewis, and his chances, in particular looking at how much BMW has fallen behind McLaren and Ferrari - seem very slim for this season. But Kovalainen, 24 points behind Hamilton, now with his first win, can still hold onto some distant hope with 7 races to go. But even if he won every remaining race - which would suggest the McLaren was the more competitive car than the Ferrari to the end, its likely Lewis would finish second (and Massa, Raikkonen and Kubica would fight for third) - Lewis would win by 10 points over Heikki. So Heikki does need for Lewis to have some serious setbacks and/or have the Ferraris and BMW's to finish between him and Lewis for any chance of this season's championship. Still, he must have gotten a big dose of self-confidence, making him even more motivated to race for the pole positions and race wins. Obviously the math favours Lewis intensely (against his team mate) and judging by recent performance - the tyre failure derailed Hamilton's likely win in Hungary - Lewis must be the favourite for this seaon's title.

And of the Ferrari pilots, Kimi has to be given the bigger chances at this point. Consider last season. After the Grand Prix in Germany (Nurmburgring, was not called the German GP, but the European GP) Massa had led Kimi by 7 points. Kimi had typical Finland luck at Hungary, and after the Hungaroring he had jumped to lead Massa by one point. In the first half of the season 2007, Massa had held as much as a 10 point lead over Kimi. At Hungary the tables were turned. By the end of the season Kimi had built a 16 point cushion over his team mate. Kimi is a racer, very determined, disciplined, competitive and extremely focused on the full season. Plus he's done it before..

Meanwhile Massa can't believe his luck. He had built a decent lead again this season over his team mate, and here we go, after half point, and the Finn just seems to pull ahead, rather easily. Yes, there was an engine failure but both guys have roughly the same amount of technical problems over a full season, yet the Brazilian must be concerned that the reigning champ did not bother to fight at full intensity in the first half of the season while Massa put in 100%. Now suddenly Kimi pulls ahead of him and could well repeat what he did last season..

Returning to Kimi and Lewis. Last season after Hungaroring, Lewis had a 7 point cushion to the reigning champion (his team mate) Alonso, and Kimi was 20 points behind the British rookie driver. This season the reigning champ is Kimi, and he is only 5 points behind. Hamilton must be concerned that Kimi is clearly his strongest rival, and far more dangerous this season than last season.

Kimi - must be smiling. He has not performed at his best the first half of this season, yet he finds himself only five points adrift of the leader with seven races to go. They include Kimi's fave race track - Spa, which ever since Kimi started winning in 2003, he's won every Spa race that has been held - three times. And of the other six, Kimi has won also in Brazil and China; of the seven remaining races, the only race track where Lewis has won before is Japan. And the season includes two new tracks, Valencia and Singapore - and Kimi has always been very quick on new tracks where nobody has previous experience (but so has Lewis).

And there is the team hierarchy. The worst thing that could have happened to Lewis, is a maiden win at mid-season for Kovalainen combined with technical problem for Hamilton. So where Lewis was nearing a point of "inevitability" and nearly statistically insurmountable lead - and could expect some degree of support from his team mate - before Hungary Lewis had led Heikki by 30 points, had over twice as many points as his Finnish team mate; after Hungary Heikki had clawed that to 24 points.. If Heikki remains very close to Lewis (or even worse, finishes ahead of him in some races), Lewis will not be getting any preferred treatment for many races to go.

The added confidence of Heikki (his first pole position at Silverstone, and now this maiden win) will definitely add the competitiveness of Kovalainen, and add to his confidencel; this will certainly knaw on Hamilton's confidence, and will put a lot of pressure on Lewis. The end of last season showed that under pressure Hamilton starts to make mistakes. And just remember how downcast Hamilton was in Silverstone, when Heikki got his first pole position. Hamilton does have a lot of emotions, and they can get to him.

Meanwhile, Ferrari has always had a strategy of preferring their top driver. Hungary was exactly the best possible result from Kimi's point of view (and worst from Massa's) in that Kimi surged from being 3 points behind Massa, to now being 3 points ahead of him.

If there was any doubt, should Ferrari support the reigning champion or his Brazilian team mate, when Felipe Massa was ahead by a couple of points, now that Kimi has passed him in the standings and leads Massa by 3 points, the tables are turning rather conclusively in favour of Raikkonen right at the time when Ferrari management will start to make that decision of which driver to focus on. Massa is also now under extreme pressure, he has to outperform Kimi for the next two or three races, else he will clearly be relegated to a supporting role. Massa does not perform well under such pressure.

But the Iceman? He knows his team will be supporting him. He knows he beat Massa last season from being further behind. He knows he beat Hamilton - who used to drive the better car last season - and who was 20 points ahead of him. Now he has the best car and is a only a couple of points from the lead. And the Iceman? He does not buckle with pressure. He took the fight to the very last race three times before (when each time his title rival led going into the final race and had the better car). Michael Schumacher and Fernando Alonso had managed to barely beat Kimi twice before in the last race; and last season, Kimi was able to snatch that victory from the jaws of McLaren. He will always fight every race, and he can smell his second consecutive championship. He will be fierce to the end.

As to BMW. I do hope they could still return to form, but they are a smaller team than Ferrari and McLaren. They have already met their goal for this season (their maiden win) and the prudent decision would be to focus full attention to the 2009 car, while Ferrari and McLaren are locked into their duel and pour resources into further development of this season's car. I think Kubica's (and Heidfeld's) chances for further wins this season will not come "on merit" but will only come under exceptional conditions and with a lot of luck - if say the front runners crash into each other or a major rain race or lots of pace cars etc...

But yes, exciting times. I do see this quickly clearling into a duel. Much as I'd love Heikki to really catch fire, I honestly don't see that happening. He may well postpone his elimination from contention and stay in the mix, with podium finishes. But in the silver cars, it will turn into Hamilton as the primary contender by around Singapore GP. On Ferrari's side, I think Massa is so prone to occasional blunders and errors - even more this season without the traction control - and with Ferrari's more obvious strategy of preferring one driver - Kimi should get unofficial lead driver status within two or three races, could well be after he very likely wins Spa Belgium, and heads to Ferrari's home race in Italy..

Then its down to really two things. How well do they develop their cars, McLaren and Ferrari. If McLaren had achieved a miniscule lead, that was so slight, that Ferrari could catch up within any interval between races.

And then its down to the racers and their motivation and focus. I have been concerned about Kimi's lack of total focus several times this season. I do think that changes now as he can sense his chances are better than ever before, but he knows he does have to focus fully every remaining race.

Against that is the fact that Kimi is a seasoned veteran - not that much growth anymore from one season to the next. Lewis is only in his second season. He is still growing a lot. Last season he finished only one point behind Kimi and his own team mate was his toughest rival through most of the season. This season he is far clear of his own team mate - and must feel a lot less interference from within the team - and he will certainly grow and learn and become a better driver this season than he was last year in his rookie season.

Can Lewis grow more, or can Kimi pull more out of his reserves.. This will be a magnificent racing season through the remaining seven races. I love it.

And going into Valencia this weekend, shortly we'll have the qualifying. It is a first-time track for all. The track is not a regular race track, its a city circuit like Monaco (and Singapore) so there also are not contests staged in junior series, so the drivers can not have "practised" on the track in their junior racing careers. It is a test of how quickly can they learn and adapt to the track.

I can't wait..

Hockenheim.. Lewis surges ahead

Quick notes while on vacation, and on the eve of Valencia's inaugral GP's qualifying. First Hockenheim.

The German GPs are Kimi's bogey tracks, both of them, and he must be happy that the season no longer contains two of the races, but rather alternates between Nurmburgring and Hockenheim. Still, the German races have always been bad news for Raikkonen.

Meanwhile, McLaren has been catching up to Ferrari's lead technically, and BMW, after its maiden win, seems to have slipped back somewhat.

Hockenheim Lewis on form, grabbing pole position. Massa lined up second and Heikki Kovalainen on third. Kimi was down in sixth, and Kubica in seventh position.

The race.. Lewis dominated and won the race without much trouble or drama. Massa lost a place down from where he qualified and finished third. Heikki lost two places and finished in fifth. Kimi held his position and finished sixth. The amazing performance was by Renault rookie driver Nelson Piquet, who started back in 17th and managed to finish second.

After the race, Lewis had gained a 4 point cushion to Massa, 7 points ahead of Kimi and 10 points ahead of Kubica. The wonderfully evenly matched season turned much less so in just one race.

How close is close, at Silverstone four drivers within 2 points, historical comparison

I took a quick stroll through historical stats. How exceptional is this season with three drivers tied at 48 points by mid-season and the four top drivers all within 2 points?

I only looked at the season point scoring status at the time of the British Grand Prix, which tends to be roughly at the middle of the F1 calendar. But I did not take the mathematical half point. Obviously one driver having a good or bad race can alter the situation quite greatly from one race to the next, remembering Lewis was 10points behind Massa only this Saturday.. So this is certainly an incomplete analysis, but on quick-and-dirty view, and as the F1 circus is so heavily centered in Britain, and the British GP tends to be at half-point, I think its a fairly representative sampling.

I only went back to 1963, because before that there were less than 10 races per season, so "mid point" British GP only had 4 or 5 races and it is not really that impressive to have near parity with only a few races to consider.

Now, going back through those stats very quickly reveals and reminds, that we have often very boring seasons, when one driver totally dominates the season, say like Michael Schumacher in 2002, running away with the season and the championship not being of any real interest at about half point. Luckily that is not the common case, but there are many of those.

Then the typical scenario is two drivers only being meaningful contestants for the season, like say classic Senna vs Prost duels and Schumacher vs Hakkinen contests. That is the norm.

It is very rare for us to have three drivers in close proximity, within a few points of each other. That of course doesn't mean that the third or fourth placed driver at mid-season cannot win it - Kimi was 18 points behind last season after Silverstone and won the season, but I'm now looking for true "nail-biters" - when have we had a season like this one.

So, lets start with last season. The season ended with Kimi at 110, Hamilton and Alonso both at 109 points and Massa with 94. As I've said many times, it was the most closely contested season, as the drivers were so evenly matched all through the season by their wins. But while the wins were evenly spaced, the points were not. At Silverstone, the British GP was 9th out of 17 races last year, the leader Hamilton was 12 points ahead of second place Alonso, 18 points clear of Raikkonen and 19 points from Massa. So the split between first and third was 18 points, and between first and fourth was 19 points. That is our "benchmark" to compare other close seasons.

We then really have to go far into history to find a truly competitive season next. But the 1987 season was an epic battle between Piquet, Mansell, Senna and Prost (wow, four great champions, and Piquet took it that year). The UK race was a bit before mid point as the 7th race of a 16 race season. And like this year, these four drivers were in three different cars, Piquet and Mansell in Williams, Senna in Lotus and Prost in McLaren. How close was it? Very close. The top 3 were within 3 points of each other and the top four within 5 points. Second and third place were tied for 30 points.

Another very close season, not quite as close as 1987, was the 1977 season, when it was between Lauda, Scheckter, Andretti and Reutemann. Also four drivers in three cars, Lauda and Reutemann in Ferraris, Scheckter in Wolf, and Andretti in Lotus. The British GP was 10th of 16, a bit past mid-point. And the top 3 drivers were within 4 points, very tight, but the top 4 drivers were within 12 points, not that close. None of the four were tied.

The previously most competitive season, at the British GP measurement point, was even further back, in 1974, when the British GP was 10th out of 15, so actually two thirds to the back of the season. This was at the era of Fittipaldi (who won the season) and the early part of Lauda's career. Lauda in a McLaren led at half point by one point ahead of Fittipaldi in a Ferrari, with his team mate Regazzoni in the sister Ferrari two points behind, tied with Scheckter in the Tyrrell. The split between the top 3 drivers was 3 points, and the split between the top 4 drivers, was also only 3 points. And the third and fourth place drivers were tied.

Until this season, that was the most close season, by the British GP. The split between the top 3 drivers was 3 points, and also the split from first to fourth in the season was 3 points. (fifth place was very far behind this quartet)

Now this season. The British GP is the 9th of 18 races, the mid-point. We have 3 drivers tied for the lead, so the top three drivers are split by zero points, and the top four drivers are split by only 2 points. And the four drivers are in cars of three manufacturers (McLaren, Ferrari and BMW). And the three leading drivers obviously are tied. This is more close as the championship points contest, than any previous season (back to the season of 1963) when measured at the point of the British GP.

Yeah, I love it. You could not ask for more of a Formula One season, could you?

Three way tie at mid-season, two points separate top 4 drivers from 3 teams

Wow, Silverstone.

First, too bad about Heikki. Had it been a dry race, he was well poised to win it. But he seems to be closing in on his first win.

Nick, Quick Nick Heidfeld, again the bride's maid. Almost everyone spun at one point or another, Felipe Massa doing so many spins you'd think he's auditioning for the Royal Ballet, not racing at the British GP. So the steady driving style of Heidfeld was just what these conditions needed. Heikki spun, Kimi spun, Massa spun, Webber spun, almost every racer spun at some point. But Hamilton didn't spin. So Heidfeld played it safe and patient, but was not awarded a win. Yet another second place finish.

And Rubens. Barrichello got one more podium for his long career, and totally, completely, unexpectedly, for the total backmarker Honda team. What a thrill.

So then there was Lewis. He was downcast after his team mate took pole position. He was stuck on fourth on the grid, on the dirty side on a rainy day. He was not known as the best rainy day racer. And after his aggressive move at the start, which got him ahead of the spinning Webber and the blocked Kimi, right alongside Heikki, Lewis was not able to pass his team mate, and was stuck on second. Trailing in the heavy rain, it would have seemed hopeless for him to even consider a win this day.

Yet through trials to victory. Passing Heikki on the fourth lap, on a fast part of the circuit, the rest was suddenly total domination by Lewis Hamilton, at his home race. He has already had his first victory last year. He has also now this season taken the first race win of the season. And he has won at Monaco, the most glamorous and "desirable" race. So the only meaningful race victory left for him to achieve, was his home race, Silverstone, which he won, and in such strong manner that he lapped all but two cars. A fantastic performance. The only thing left for him is to win the championship. But his individual race win must no doubt be the sweetest of his career and remain vividly memorable for all the trouble it was in the pouring English rain.

THREE WAY TIE

And yes, now we have an amazing season indeed. At exact half-point of the season, we have four drivers tied for 48 points, Lewis Hamilton with 3 wins and best next finishes at nominally first in the McLaren, Felipe Massa with 3 wins also at nominally second for Ferrari, and Kimi Raikkonen with 2 wins but also 48 points, nominally third for Ferrari. And just a tantalizing 2 points behind the trio, lurks Robert Kubica in the BMW, with 46 points.

I cannot remember - and just because I cannot remember of course is no guarantee of it actually being true - of any season ever, where at or past the half-point, there were three championship leaders tied in points, or four leaders all within 2 points of each other.

I have to go do some quick searching of some F1 stats to see if this has ever happened. But if last season was the closest racing with three drivers ending the season within one point, we are actually now headed very literally for an even more close season. Remember last season too there was one point when three drivers were even in points, but that was after 3 races, not after 9.

EMOTIONS?

Lewis has to have received a ton of confidence from that win. A ton of it. This was the one win he really wanted and he got it, only on his second attempt. It is the home race for his team and he had all his family there to witness it. And going into the win his team mate had seemed, for the first time, to have the upper hand.

His team mate, Heikki Kovalainen must have felt severely hit by it. This was his race to win, but Lewis snatched it from Heikki, fair and square. Not on pit stops or strategy, but wheel-on-wheel racing on the track. Must hurt.

Kimi, this time he was a victim of unfortunate strategy and unpredictable rain. He was well poised for a podium finish, challenging Lewis even, before the first pit stops. While Lewis changed tyres, Kimi didn't. I don't know if this was a Ferrari pit crew decision or Kimi's decision, but it could have worked out, if the track had not gotten wetter. Kimi has in the past cared for his tyres so well, to last the intermediate wet tyres into de-facto slick tyres, and raced well with them on a drying track.

But as the new heavy spell of rain fell right after Kimi's and Lewis's pit stop, Lewis was on the right tyre choice, new intermediates barely suitable for the rain, and Kimi on the wrong tyres, old worn intermediates totally unsuitable for the deluge. As we saw with the rapid progress by Barrichello, the best tyre choice for the middle stint was full wet tyres, so Kimi went in the wrong direction.

In those ten laps or so that he was on the track, he lost his places and any chance of a podium. This was not a poor performance of Ferrari, nor was it a poor performance by Kimi on the track (and not knowing who decided on not changing tyres). I would think, Kimi is fairly confident that this is an exceptional case of bad luck of wrong tyres for changing conditions - which can happen to anyone - and is no indicator of his true pace. Just one position higher for Kimi and he'd lead the championship right now.

But I bet Kimi has two powerful agents to motivate him. First, his team mate Massa. Massa had a horrible race, and the number of spins must give Kimi confidence, that in bad conditions, he is the far more reliable driver and with half a season to go, he will outdrive his team mate.

But secondly it is the relative position to Lewis Hamilton. Last year after Silverstone, Kimi was 18 points behind Lewis. This year, even after four unlucky races, Kimi is tied with Lewis, his primary title contender. I'm pretty sure Kimi is not bothered and feels good things are heading his way.

So then poor Felipe Massa. He had had such a strong first half of the season. Then he first has a pit stop problem in the final qualifying which prevented him from trying for a good lap. He was then compromised for his fuel strategy. And then the wet race and his spins. I would think that after spinning once, and seeing most of the field pass him, he was frustrated. And to spin soon again, and then again, and again - I understood he spun five separate times - this is a race he will want to totally forget. But now Kimi has caught up with him and is tied for points. And if the team will need to make the choice between the two, it now looks rather bleak, for Massa, will Ferrari support their reigning champion, who even with an unlucky pit stop and wrong tyres, and a spin, collected five points; or go with the young driver who can't concentrate and spins five times in a race and makes everybody laugh at the Prancing Horse. Massa is the unhappiest man of the leaders.

And then Kubica? The ultimate poetic justice would have seen Kubica contest the race to the end, finish 7th, take two points, and be joint tied with four on the leader board. That was too much to ask. He had his moment and was unable to finish the race. If that was to happen, then yes, a race where he started from mid-field is of course the time to do it, rather than throw away a likely podium finishing position, like say Webber with his spin in this race.

Still, BMW must be satisfied that again they finished ahead of one of the two top teams. And that their driver pairing is particularly complementary, where Kubica drives with more risks, to outperform on races in the dry, and Heidfeld is Mr sure hands, driving flawlessly in the wet. A good pairing indeed.

This is a wonderful season. But yes, what is it with Red Bull? Webber put his Red Bull onto second and that was not with a lot less fuel than the rivals. Red Bull has been clawing into contention and is very legitimately ahead of Renault, Williams and Toyota. On a good day and with some luck, maybe the opportune pace car or a couple of the front runners take each other out (like Lewis and Kimi in Montreal), Webber might be a surprise winner still this season. That would be delightful. He is not a young kid anymore, and his best days in racing will soon be past, so one would hope he'd have one lucky day in a reasonably fast car, and this season's Red Bull just might be fast enough for him to do it once.

Still, I'd put my money on Heikki being the next new winner in the series..

Silverstone Quali - what is it with Finns and this circuit?

Congrats Heikki for his first ever pole position.. And just before he did it, I was really happy for Webber, for the brief two or three seconds that he held that elusive pole before Heikki snatched it away. I would have been very happy also for Red Bull to get their first ever pole position.

But what is it with Finns and this circuit, and in particular the qualifying at Silverstone. Actually, looking at the history, we've had 3 world champions (in four seasons) and only twice the winner of Silverstone's Formula One Grand Prix has been a Finnish driver, with Mika Hakkinen for McLaren in 2001, and Kimi Raikkonen last year when he won it for Ferrari. One might say "below par" performance for the Finnish grand prix champions over the years.

But look at the qualifying at Silverstone, and it tells of a different story. Silverstone is one of the fastest race tracks, requiring that banzai lap mentality, like Monza in Italy and Spa in Belgium, truly maddening speed. And for that qualifying, you need to be at your best. In the most demanding racing series, in their fastest races, and in that qualifying moment, when you need to be at your utmost best.

So, back in the 1980s, the British Grand Prix alternated between Brand's Hatch and Silverstone. The first Finnish world champion, Keke Rosberg was driving for Williams-Honda in 1985 at Silverstone, when he put that Williams on pole position. The first time ever a Finn had taken the pole at Silverstone (Keke had also taken pole at Brand's Hatch in 1982). Keke did not manage to turn it into points, he did not finish the race in 1985. But the record books showed him as the first Finnish pole sitter for the Silverstone GP.

But what a lap it was. Not only the fastest lap of the Silverstone weekend. It was not only the fastest lap of 1985. It was not only the fastest lap ever recorded at Silverstone, it stood to remain the fastest lap ever in any race in Formula One, for the next 16 years.. What is it about Silverstone and the Finnish race drivers?

Mika Hakkinen, our two-time world champion won at Silverstone in 2001, for McLaren-Mercedes. He did not win it from pole but from second on the grid. But prior to that, he had taken the pole position at Silverstone twice before, in 1998 (finishing 2nd) and 1999 (did not finish).

Kimi Raikkonen our third world champ won it finally at Silversone last year 2007 from second on the grid, but he had finished on the pole three years earlier, in 2004.

Now Heikki Kovalainen took his first ever pole position of his F1 career, yes at Silverstone. What is it with Finnish race drivers and that challenge of the speed of Silverstone?

Its not just these top drivers. We've had other drivers in F1 who didn't win races, but who somehow managed to do well at Silverstone. JJ Lehto drove in 1991 for a backmarker team, Dallara-Judd. At Silverstone he totally outclassed his partner and put the Dallara on 11th on the grid. He finished the race 13th.

Mika Salo, early on his career drove for backmarker Tyrrell-Yamaha (a dog of a car) and when he came to Silverstone, he managed to qualify that car on 14th, ahead of his team mate.

Mika Salo late in his career drove for Toyota, which was a pale version of Toyota today, but could perhaps with a lot of generosity, be called a mid-field team in 2002. Came Silverstone, and Salo qualified his Toyota 8th, yes, ahead of his team mate, but was unable to finish the race.

And last year, when Heikki was with the underpowered Renault, he was under fire early in the season outshadowed by Fisichella, but at Silverstone, Heikki pulled it off, qualifying the Renault at 7th ahead of his successful team mate, and better yet, he finished also 7th, ahead of Fisi.

So what is it about Silverstone that brings out this banzai lap out of the Finnish drivers..

Actually, we can go back even further for a bit of trivia. In 1972 the British GP was held at Brand's Hatch. But that year there was a GP at Silverstone as well, not part of Formula One, but there was a Finnish winner of Silverstone that year, by the first-ever Finnish F1 driver. Not driving an F1 car that year, he was the reigning champion of the Interserie class of prototype sportscars (we know them as the Le Mans cars today) Leo won the Silverstone event as one of his six wins in the 9 race season, finishing with a massive lead over the runner-up, to take his second of three consecutive Interserie championships. What is it about Silverstone and Finnish drivers.

Now, as there have been 21 races at Silverstone since 1985 (1986 was held at Brand's Hatch), and there have been 5 pole positions by Finns - and not by one dominating driver like Michael Schumacher of Germany, by four different Finns - that is almost one in four pole positions since 1985 at Silverstone held by Finns. Something quite special about that circuit. And if not on pole, we've seen Mika and Kimi right up there, second or third several times as well. Yes, what is it about Silverstone and Finns?

Must be the speed...

Now, after this celebration of Finnishness, ha-ha, lets get to today's qualifying.

Was an exciting hour. Shame about David Coulthard, would have liked him in the final 10 especially as the Red Bull was more competitive than one could have expected. As this is his last home GP, too bad.. We'll miss the old "square-head" (DC's head looks almost exactly square, very unusual shape, I always wonder about his helmets ha-ha..)

Heikki, great job. Truly great. I honestly hope for him to turn it now into his first GP win of his career. Would be great for him and the team.

Hamilton. What was with it, that he did not even congratulate his team mate when they were waiting for the weigh-in. Lewis seems very heavily overburdened by expectations and pressure. I hope his head is straight for the race. But as to strategy, judging by Hamilton's sour expression, Heikki should be very well fuelled for a good strategy.

Webber. Great front row, would have loved for him to get the pole position. But I'm pretty sure he is fuelled very lightly, will not be in contention for the win. Points yes, but not for the win. The race has been sacrificed for the glory of the front row start.

Kimi at third, he fought hard but didn't quite make it. I think it will be very much up to Kimi vs Heikki - and wouldn't all of Finland love that - and of course the beautiful ending would be a 1-2 finish with Heikki getting his first win. But McLaren has seemed stronger this weekend, so I don't seriously think Kimi has the chance to win, but he might easily run Heikki hard most of the way. As Silverstone is a circuit where overtaking happens, I expect Kimi to get past Webber early on..

Hamilton. Has not seemed happy with his car and setup all weekend. Heikki has gotten the better of this track (ha-ha, Finns and Silverstone). Yes, podium perhaps, but unless an incident or rain changes things, he is the supporing McLaren driver this race.

Alonso. doing well, Renault often do better at this circuit - their home race - than the average. Kubica, couldn't get into it at all for the final Qualifying. Heidfeld will need to lead BMW this race.

But Massa, where was Massa in the last minutes of Qualifying? He didn't seem to be on the track at all. What happened to him?

But yes, we're set for a very entertaining and exciting race at Silverstone, and I do hope it won't rain, as this is well set up for a good race with the pack mixed up a bit, the two championship leaders in mid-field (Massa and Kubica), and with Lewis and Kimi on the second row, chasing Heikki on pole (sorry Webber, you're really not in it). And judging by some of the speed of Alonso, I would not be surprised to see Fernando even in the mix if the strategy is just right and a little bit of luck comes his way.

And as to Donington, it will be a shame to lose Silverstone after next year - especially as it has been so kind to Finnish drivers in its qualifying. Lets see if they do as well in years to come at Donington.

But for now, I can't wait for tomorrow for Silverstone 2008. Go Heikki !!

France: 8 Races, 4 different winners only 10 points between them

So now we had France. A boring, processional race. I really hope they don't return to Magny Cours, it is not worthy of F1 racing, there is almost no racing on that circuit.

But before we look at the results, lets go back a year. Last year France was also the 8th race. Last year produced the most competitive F1 season ever, not just at the end, but all through the season. Last year 2007 in F1 at 3 races into the season, 3 different winners. At 8 races four winners each with 2 wins each. At 12 races the four winners had 3 wins each. At 15 races, still 3 racers in contention and each had 4 wins each. And into the final race, those 3 were mathematically in contention, the guy with the least points won the race and won the championship by one point, with the two others tied at 1 point behind the world champion.

So last season was the most evenly contested season ever, with 3 racers genuinely contesting it from the first race to the last, and 4 drivers in contention through much of the season. Two manufacturers running neck-and-neck.

But, last season, after the French Grand Prix, even though each of Hamilton, Alonso, Massa and Raikkonen had 2 wins each, Hamilton's lead over Kimi was a massive 22 points. Kimi had 42 points, Lewis had managed more than 50% more than that, at 64 points in the first 8 races.

Ok, then the French results - Kimi led the race and seemed to be a clear winner, until he had a problem with the exhaust and had to let Massa pass. Massa won, Kimi second, and Trulli surprised all with a Toyota third place. Kovalainen was the best McLaren at 4th and Kubica's worst finish of the season (if we don't count Australia where he did not finish) at fifth.

Now lets look at the season in 2008. Might we be blessed with perhaps even a more competitive season than last year's.

So to start with, the first 3 races - 3 different winners (like last year). Now at France and the 8 race point, yes we have 4 different winners but not that evenly matched in wins, Massa has 3, Lewis and Kimi have 2, and Kubica has 1. So in this way, the season is "not as competitive" as last season.

Well, hold on. First, last year by this point it was clear the championship would only between Ferrari and McLaren drivers. This year it is between Ferrari, McLaren and BMW.. So already by this count, we have a more competitive season.

But lets look at the points. Last year at France, the difference between first (Hamilton) and fourth (Raikkonen) was 22 points. This year the difference between first (Massa) and fourth (Hamilton) is.. ten points.

TEN points between first and FOURTH. Wow. This is EXTREMELY close. We may truly have an epic season.

I do like it, that last year's best car is not running away with it - McLaren is not the best this season, in fact McLaren is third in constructor points. And last year's champion is not running away with it, Kimi is third in the championship points with 42.

Now, while we are comparing the two seasons at the 8 race point, lets look a bit at the main rivals.

Lewis Hamilton. Last season he was Mr Consistency, finishing on the podium every race through France and amassed 64 points. He had no failures to finish and very amazingly neither did the sister McLaren driven by Alonso. A perfect car so far. And Hamilton had just started his winnings three races earlier in Canada and won also in the USA Grand Prix, so the rookie had also started winning. The world was smiling at Hamilton.

What a difference a year makes. This year Hamilton has had one retirement - and that was his own fault crashing into Kimi in Canada, so it wasn't that the McLaren was not reliable. But Lewis had only scored 38 points, just more than half the points he had last year. Yes, he still has two wins this season, but when he didn't win, he was not on the podium, he has only 2 other podiums this season in addition to his two wins. He is now more a Mr Inconsistency.

Obviously no point in comparing Kubica to last year. Last year at this point he had half the points of Heidfeld, now he has nearly twice the points that Heidfeld has. Kubica has grown and become a far greater driver this season, but obviously, so too has the BMW-Sauber car improved tons from last year.

But lets look at Felipe Massa. Last year after France, 47 points and two wins. This year Massa has 48 points and three wins. Last year he was third in the Championship and 17 points adrift of Hamilton. This year he leads the championship two poins ahead of Kubica and 10 points ahead of Hamilton. Last year Massa was five points ahead of Kimi, this year he is six points ahead of Kimi. Last year he had 2 wins and 3 podiums, this year its 3 wins and 2 podiums. Massa should be smiling..

..except for Mr Iceman. Consider these stats for Kimi after 8 races.

Kimi last year 2 wins. This year 2 wins. Last year 2 other podiums. This year 2 other podiums. Last year Kimi 42 points? This year 42 points. Last year Kimi was behind Massa by 5 points, this year by 6 points.

Last years in the first 8 races Kimi was 2-6 behind in qualifying to Massa and 5 points behind in points. Then in the remaining 9 races, Kimi totally trashed Massa and outscored him by 21 points from Silverstone to Brazil, to finish ahead of Massa by not a hair, but by an overwhelming 16 points. Yes, perhaps one or two of Kimi's point scores were due to Ferrari team orders towards the end of the season, but that does not explain away even half of the points that Kimi outscored Massa.

So yes, Mr Iceman.. The true Mr Consistency. If he could win the championship last year when two time champion Alonso was in a better car and Hamilton in a better car - and Massa ahead of him at this point, now that Kimi finds Alonso in a weak Renault and Hamilton behind him, he certainly does not fear the fact that Massa has 3 wins to his 2, and leads Kimi by a measerly 6 points..

Last 3 races Kimi has had spectacularly bad luck, in Monaco he slid on a slippery surface on worn tyres from 5th place and crashed into Sutil. Had he finished behind Sutil in that race, he'd now be tied for second. But yes, we might say that this was partially his fault, perhaps.

In Canada it was certainly not Kimi's fault. He had legitimately passed Hamilton in the pit stop and was poised to win the race, until Lewis crashed into Kimi and took him out of the race. Obviously if Kimi had even come second in the race with Kubica still winning, Kimi would now lead the championship.

And the rare technical problem in France, when Kimi led and his exhaust pipe got loose and caused severe problems. Kimi was leading the race easily from Massa prior to that, and still finished second. Had they finished with Kimi first and Massa second, today Massa would be tied with Hamilton and Kimi only 2 points behind.

Yes, Kimi has had a severe case of bad luck the last three races. But inspite of all of that, the Iceman is the reigning champion and only six points from the lead. And his "strongest" rival, Hamilton, is behind Kimi at this point.

Last season Kimi had embarked on a near-hopeless task of fighting from 22 points behind at this point, when it was clear the McLaren was exceptionally durable and the fastest car. This season Kimi sees that the McLaren is not as fast nor as durable, and in fact it is the Ferrari which is the fastest car this season.

Kimi has never had the luxury of driving the fastest car of the season, and yet he's finished twice as the runner up in the F1 Championship and won it once, when his car was not the fastest.

Now he has the fastest car.

And as to Massa being 6 points ahead of Kimi? I'm sure the Iceman sleeps well, remembering that last year he was fourth 22 points behind the leader, 18 points behind the double-world champion (Alonso) and 5 points behind his own team mate.

This time he is 4 points ahead of his strongest rival (Hamilton). He is only 4 points behind the newcomer to the contest, Kubica, in the unproven BMW; and only 6 points behind the championship leader and his team mate, Massa.

He knows its motor racing, so there will be incidents (Montreal), accidents (Monaco) and technical problems (Magny Cours). As these "M-contests" are now past, it is time for Kimi's luck to turn and him to return to winning ways. I'd say the Iceman is the one most likely to pull it out this season.

But as the four guys are only 10 points between them, this is truly a fiercely competitive season. I love it..

Oh PS, and how about Heikki? Kovalainen is at 20 points, nearly half the points of Hamilton. Heikki has had a lot of bad luck, but he is not really convincing anyone that he deserves that second McLaren seat. If I was told that at 8 races we'd have 4 different winners and one of them a first-time winner, I'd have guessed that to be Heikki, not Kubica. I think Kovalainen is underperforming and must be feeling some pressure at McLaren. Lets hope he gets his season turned around, before he finds himself in a Toyota or Honda for next season..

Then Demolition Derby part 2 - Canada, and a first-time winner!

Oh, Canada.. Yes, that Hamilton mistake in the pit lane. Demolition Derby part 2, and another race where Kimi had fought back to be competitive, and a crash ruined it. This time it was Hamilton crashing into Kimi and some might say it was poetic justice for Kimi's crash into Sutil in Monaco.

But yes, this then brought us that amazing end to the race, hoping and wishing for Kubica to hold on without any fateful pace cars or other incidents, so he's get his maiden win. And he did win it.

That was brilliant.. First win for Kubica, the first ever F1 winner for Poland, and the first ever win for BMW (and former Sauber) as a constructor. Congratulations all around.

Even more amazingly, both Kubica and BMW took the lead in the championship. And poor Quick Nick Heidfeld, has ever a second place felt so empty as his that day, when he brought the first-ever 1-2 for BMW but this was not his day. Nick had led the race, and with several incidents and pace cars, a little bit of luck his way, and Heidfeld would have been the first-ever BMW winner. As Ferrari and McLaren were bumbling this weekend, it was destined to be BMW in any case..

Congrats Robert and BMW !!

So Demolition Derby part 1 - Monaco

Monaco.. Its a race that so often produces surprises for us. This year? The first F1 Demolition Derby with Kimi crashing into Sutil with less than 10 minutes to go in the race. It was a wet track and a racing incident, still, you'd not expect the reining champion to lose his car after the tunnel..

The good part of the result was that we had a season where the Ferrari duo had seemed to be pulling away from the pack, suddenly caught up again, with Lewis taking the lead with 38 points, Kimi second with 35 points, Massa third at 34 points and ominously, Kubica closing in with 32 points. This was good for the season, although my heart goes out to Sutil and the Force India team, they would have loved those 5 points the fourth place would have given them. They were "robbed"..

Catching up 2 - Turkey, always great racing

So then Turkey two weeks ago.. I'm recollecting the race after one more viewing of the race on my PVR and looking at the stats from Autosport. Obviously I've already seen today's Monaco GP as well, but am attempting to cover this with the mind-set I had two weeks ago..

Its a great race track, and it seems Massa owns the track. I really like the racing at this track; I'd only hope we'd see even more overtaking, although Hamilton passing Massa on the track for the lead near mid-race, that is what we fans really want in racing. Overtaking!!

Conventional wisdom suggests that if you're one of the front-runners and can run significantly longer than the others, you should win.. Hamilton came in for his first pit-stop at lap 16; Massa and Kubica came in at lap 19; Kimi ran till lap 21. This would suggest Kimi should have turned that into a win. But no chance. Massa held easily to win, and Hamilton took his 3-stopping strategy to the second sep of the podium. The champion seemed very ordinary at this track where he has won before.

I wasn't aware of it during the race - and I wondered why Hamilton on a 3 stop strategy - but afterwards I read in Autosport that Bridgestone insisted Hamilton make 3 stops to prevent blowing up his tyre like last year. So the true pace of the McLaren car in general, and Hamilton in particular, was probably better than what we saw in Istanbul.

As to Kovalainen, very unlucky guy, a puncture killed his chances and he fought hard in mid-field to now points at the end. Kubica was well in the mix for the race, but eventually ended up fourth. Perhaps the true pace of the BMW, but I would have wished for him to do better. Alonso showed some promise with Renault, but he may be getting more out of his car, at this demanding circuit, than there really is in the Renault this season.

The best part is that we are having a nice tightening of the season, with Kimi only 7 points ahead of Hamilton and Massa. And even Kubica is well in the frame only 11 points behind. Yes, of course I'd want Kimi to win the championshiop again this season, but I do love the racing, and I'd hate for the season to be one of total domination by one car, even if that was the car of "my" fave driver.. So yes, this is very good for F1.

Catching up 1: Barcelona - boring...

I've been quite busy at work last month, so quick follow-up postings.

First Barcelona. Boring.

I don't think we need more. A processional race, no fun.

Congratulations Danica Patrick!

While this is an F1 blog and I don't really follow other car racing series, this is a moment certainly worth celebrating. Danica Patric has become the first woman to win a major single-seater race. She won the Indy Car race in Japan. Congrats Danica! Now, when will we see a woman racing F1? If you notice, most F1 racers are relatively small men ha-ha, a woman would fit that cockpit more easily than a man...

So what is on the mind of a champion?

There are 3 champions driving in f1 today, arguably. The past champ Alonso, the current champ Kimi and the next champ, Hamilton. What is on their mind now, 3 races into the 08 season?

Alonso

Last year the reigning champ had made his switch from mid size Renault team to one of the true big teams, McLaren. At 3 races in he had won once and was tied for the lead in points. His old team Renault was not competitive in 2007. While Hamiton was getting a lot of attention, Alonso was mentally in a good place. He knew he had made the switch to McLaren at exactly the right moment in time, when Renault was past its prime, and McLaren was strong.

What a difference a year makes. Now Alonso is back at Renault. The dream of winning championships with his boyhood fave team, shattered. To make matters worse, Renault isnt even among top 3 teams this season.

Alonso is freed from the season of strong rivalry with Hamilton, and the increasingly poisonous atmosphere at McLaren. But he's been spoiled the last 3 seasons driving the fastest car of the year, now he's in a mid-field car. This is a tough adjustment for Fernando. And where he's used to racing up front of the grid, now he's permanently stuck in mid-field, crashing with the other mid-fielders at the chaos of the race starts.

His return to Renault was admidst specualation of escape clauses in his contract. He does not want to remain there. So also Alonso's motivation for helping Renault grow and become competitive in the long run, is at least in question.

This is a downturn for Alonso in both car, and his personal motivation. It does not help, to see that his two rivals from last year, Kimi and Lewis, are in faster cars. Expect the former Champ to feel very frustrated this season, or perhaps to tune out and not give his best. We'll see.

Hamilton

So then Lewis. Last season at this time he had gotten his promotion to the ultimate in his sport, moved from the junior teams to F1, and straight onto the McLaren team, to partner the two-time reigning champ, Alonso. A golden opportunity to be the understudy of the best driver still driving, as Schumacher had retired. And as we saw, Hamilton was already impressing everyone not losing pace to Alonso in the same car. At the start of the season it was also obvious the early advantage that Ferrari had held in Melbourne, was quickly caught up by McLaren and by the third race McLaren was cetainly a car with the pace to race Ferrari. As the young driver with Alonso having all the pressure, Hamilton had the perfect opportunity to show what he could do, and any success would be a positive. And obviously last year at this time even without having won yet, Lewis was tied for the championship lead three races into the season.

Now a year later, Lewis senses that this time around, McLaren is not the fastest car, there is a clear margin to Ferrari. He hasn't been to this situation before (at the F1 level). What is worse, he sees clearly that BMW is about as fast as the McLaren so he is more likely to fight for a podium finish with Kubica, Heidfeld and Kovalainen; than racing Kimi and Massa for the win.

Lewis also finds himself as the returning or "senior" driver at McLaren, with Heikki as his "understudy". The British press expect Lewis to blow Heikki away in head-to-head compeition, but Kovalainen is tenaciously competing and tied for points. It wasn't supposed to be like this.

Lewis can take solace, looking at Alonso stuck in mid-field, but he is no doubt concerned about Kimi in a much faster Ferrari this season. Will Hamilton have to let the two red cars escape into the distance, and race for third place against Kubica and Heidfeld (and Kovalainen)?

Inside McLaren there are rumours that Ron Dennis won't be there forever, how long will he be around and how involved will Ron be and what effect will this have to the team. A well-oiled McLaren machine may not be as smooth-running as it has been in the past; perhaps Lewis came to the team just too late, if it starts a decline from this season, like what happened to Renault last season or Williams a few years earlier when a formerly winning car can't get any wins at all.

And he faces the pressure of the British motoring press. They cheered him on last season for his cinderella season and were forgiving for rookie mistakes. This season they expect much more - a championship - and now scrutinize all small flaws. Even more they compare Hamilton to Kovalainen, adding to the pressure on Lewis.

Finally there is McLaren's philophy of allowing its racers to race each other. This benefitted him last season, and angered the "established winner" Alonso. But this season it will benefit Heikki to the detriment of Lewis's chances at the championship. What was good karma last year is bad karma this year for Lewis.

Last season at this time Lewis had not won an F1 race, but was feeling almost sheer delight in racing. This season he has won a race already, yet has a sinking feeling that he may be perhaps unable to contest for the championship.

Kimi

Finally there is Kimi. Last year at this point he had won one race for Ferrari and was tied for the championship lead. But Kimi also knew the key to his win was the flexible floor design of the Ferrari which was banned after Melbourne, and the revised car was not as fast. He also knew they had wind tunnel problems, so the development of the Ferrari would suffer. He was not secure in his position with Ferrari, where Massa was the "insider" and Kimi the outsider. And Massa had won a race as well at this point last season, and Massa was comfortable not only with the team, but also with the Bridgestone tyres which Kimi was having trouble adjusting to. And finally, the Ferrari had been designed before Kimi had joined the team, so it was not set up close to suit his driving style. Kimi certainly felt happy to have been able to depart McLaren but was by no means certain he would become the master at Ferrari, inspite of what his outwardly confidence would suggest. The Italian sporting press was also fuelling rumours about the Massa-Raikkonen contest for number one status with the team. And there was the sceptre of Schumacher hanging around the paddock, such as Jean Todt bringing the mobile phone with Schumacher on the line, to Kimi when Kimi was about to step to the podium for his first win in Melbourne (and Kimi duly disconnected the call and did not want to talk with the former champ). Whose team was it, Kimi's, Massa's or perhaps still, Schumacher's?

This time around in 2008, Kimi is in the ultimate sweet spot. He is the reigning champ. He disposed the old champ (Alonso) who had driven the faster car last season. But now Kimi has the fastest car of the season, in fact the first time in his F1 career, Kimi knows he has the fastest car.

Last year this time Kimi was battling Massa for team leader status. Now wearing that Number 1 on his nosecone, there is no question, that this is Kimi's team. Massa is the supporting driver. They both know it and so does the whole team.

Kimi is comfortable with the Bridgestone tyres. The car was designed more to suit his driving style. For a race driver his tools are utmost to his liking. And Kimi has made it very clear, he does not need to be chaperoned by Schumacher; Kimi can win championships for Ferrari all by himself.

The change removing traction control was expected to expose strong and weak drivers. Certainly Massa is proven to be one who had benefitted from traction control. Kimi has adjusted very well to this new era, while Massa is one of the drivers most to have suffered.

Kimi has already won one race this season and this time he leads the championship. His truest rival is his own team-mate Massa, and on this team, more than any other, Kimi knows the team won't let Massa overshadow the reigning champion Ferrari driver. This is the best team to be in, if the closest rival for the championship is your team-mate.

Then Kimi looks at McLaren. The disappointment last season to observe, that after all those years when McLaren was not the fastest car, of course when he left, suddenly McLaren became the fastest car. Well, now that has passed. He was able to beat them in a slower car, it will be easier this season.

And Kimi thinking of Lewis? Not only will he have Heikki bleeding points off Lewis, but there are the BMW's contesting for podiums (and even perhaps the Williams on a good day). Lewis will have a much harder time to score 8 points or 6 points per race to keep up with Kimi in the championship this time, than last year when it was only a race between the two teams, McLaren and Ferrari. Kimi also can see that Lewis's incredible luck last year, when battling for position at the start of the race, or occasional race indidents, is now reversing, and when battling from the mid-field, Lewis is a mere mortal after all. Thus the true risk posed by Hamilton in his second season is significantly less than it was in 2007. And of Kovalainen, Kimi will feel even less threatened by Heikki than Lewis on that team, knowing McLaren very well, and seeing that Heikki is still chasing his first win.

And Kimi thinking of Alonso? Kimi can clearly see that this season Renault will not be able to overtake McLaren, BMW and Ferrari to claw himself back into contention for the championship. For this season at least, Alonso is already out of the picture.

What of the BMW boys? They are second (Heidfeld) and tied-for third (Kubica) in the championship, but this team has never won a race, far less a championship. So the intellect in Raikkonen knows that team is far from a true contender this season, they need to win a race first, before they start to consider the Championship. Yes, BMW can be a worthy rival this season, but with Ferrari's organization, discipline and competence, in a tight race, BMW is entering a level they have not yet been to. Again advantage Kimi.

He has said many times towards the end of his time at McLaren, that Kimi was not too happy, and felt he might quit racing soon. Now at Ferrari, he has said time and again, that he is superbly happy and feels like he was at home.

Kimi's been around the circuits for long enough to know any given weekend might go to one team or one driver rather than another. Luck plays a big part in race incidents, the pace car, rain, etc. And there are always the occasional technical issues in motor racing. Kimi also knows that the championship requires most of all consistency race in and race out, that he witnessed watching Schumacher win 5 in a row. He sees that when Kimi is starting from mid-field, he can race up to the podium and take valuable points. But now recently each of Alonso, Hamlton and Massa, when stuck in mid-field, are prone to errors, accidents, broken nose-cones, etc, demolishing chances for those valuable points.

More so than any of his rivals, Kimi knows what is the value of just one point at the end of the season, and will fight for every one that is available to him.

Last season he was hopeful of his switch of teams to Ferrari. Now he knows it was the right thing to do. Last season he battled a team-mate who is now subdued. Last season he struggled to learn new tyres, this time he knows them. Last season the car was not to his liking, and now it is. Last season he was in the second-fastest car, now its clear Ferrari is the fastest car. Last season the his strongest pre-season rival Alonso was in the fastest car. This season of his strongest pre-season rivals, Alonso is in a mid-field car, and even McLaren might be slower than the BMW and is not in Ferrari's class.

All his F1 career Kimi has been the underdog, having to scrape and fight for being within contention. He has rarely held a points lead for long in a season. The fact he twice went into the final race with a mathematical chance to win the championship, in an inferior car, was due to his consistency. Now he brings that consistency, and maturity, to the fastest car. He deservedly already leads the champhionship, but more importantly, he is already 35% ahead of his nearest "real" rival, Hamilton in points. If this pattern holds for the full season, Kimi would win the championship by a massive margin of 30 points - and thus clinch his second championship three races before the end of the season.

The mind of a champion. Three minds, three champions. There is an unhappy Alonso. There is an uncertain Hamilton. And there is a happy Raikkonen.

Bahrain. 3rd race, 3rd winner, bodes well for another exciting season

So. Bahrain done and dusted. Massa had perfect Sunday, from 2nd to win it.

As i thought, the BMW was lower on fuel, so Kubica's pole did not translate into a win. But their race pace was clearly faster than McLaren, so the win is probably not far.

But consider last year and now? After 3 races last year, we had 3 different winners - 2 for ferrari, 1 for mclaren, with the 2nd mclaren driver showing clear promise. Exactly the same now!

So this promises another epic season.

Except that now - the constructors championship is led by 3rd maker - BMW! So we are heading for 3-way team contest with 6 legitimate title contenders!

And how close and mixed they stand. Kimi first with 19 points. Heidfeld second, then the 3 tied hamilton, heikki and kubica, with massa 6th. This should become great season!

Guesstimating fuel laps for Bahrain

Wow, this is a surprise, Kubica on pole. What a great boost it would be for F1 if he actually won it as well - to have three first races with three different drivers winning - in three different cars. That would be awesome. And Kubica would be so deserving (as would BMW).

But I took a look at the Q2 times and compared with final Q3 positions, to try to guess how heavy or light the cars were and how far they would go in the race.

I think of the top 5 drivers, Massa is clearly the heaviest, he'll go 2 laps further than the others in the group. And also, Kubica seems 2 laps lighter than the other three. So my feeling is that the first to pit today in Bahrain will be Massa, then two laps later, Hamilton. A lap after that Kimi and Heikki, with Massa driving 2 laps longer still.

Lets see how well my armchair paddock spying has worked ha-ha..

And what of his chances (Kubica's). Well, if he manages to pull away - he'd need about a 4 sec window at least by the first pits to hold onto a lead, preferrably a few secs more. Plus he'd need plenty of luck in the start, stay out of trouble along the way in the race, and preferrably no pace cars to pull the pack to right behind him.

But its really shaping for a great start. Massa starting second (on the dirty side) is not known for great starts, Kimi (behind him in 4th) has often outstarted him, and Massa is prone to mistakes early in the race. Hamilton starting 3rd is known for lightning starts - and for very opportunitistic first corner moves to make up places when he isn't on pole. (Heikki hasn't a real pattern in a front-running car yet, so lets ignore him)

Hamilton on the clean side, should be able to race quickly to get alongside Massa, struggling on the dirty side of the track. These two could well be tangling with each other, even touching. And my bet is on Lewis getting past Massa. That would upset Massa who then could easily compound the problem with some hopelessly over-optimistic race moves - perhaps pushing him further back.

But Kimi, the old dog in this group - could well watch the squabble between Massa and Hamilton, and perhaps also squeeze past Massa in all the opening hassle.

Could make for a great start of the race. Can't wait.

But here's hoping Kubica is crowned the winner today in Bahrain.

Malaysia Review, now tables turned

So the Malaysian GP is done and dusted. The Finn fan in me is of course ecstatic with two Finns on the podium and was very happy to see Robert Kubica also there.

But what of the race. First, McLaren. They certainly weren't as bad as the end results show, at third and fifth. Both McLarens were punished after qualifying and started the race at midfield, yet 15 laps into the race, as the first pit stops started, Hamilton had climbed up to 5th and Kovalainen to 7th. Out of that, Kovalainen ended up third and onto the podium. What happened to Hamilton was a botched pit stop which cost him 10 seconds directly, and further was hurt by bad traffic when he returned to the track. Before the pit stop Hamilton was 4 sec ahead of Kovalainen. Under "normal" conditions Hamilton would have easily finished ahead of Kovalainen, at the very least McLaren would have had 3rd and 4th places, but very likely, Hamilton's 4 second gap in his first pit stop would have put him ahead of all the traffic that also slowed Kovalainen down, and let Kubica get away. Hamilton, in a faster car, would have caught and probably passed Kubica by the second pit stops, thus it really should have been Hamilton 2nd and Kovalainen 4th. Considering both cars (and drivers) finished, that was their true pace. Hamilton was hurt by the pit stop.

But what of Massa then? This is the second time he threw the race away with a driver error. Very bad indeed. This time a totally unforced error, too much power from the turn, spinning the car and then beaching it. Zero points. And this was after Kimi had overtaken him fair and square on the first pit stops. When Massa saw he was not going to win (again), he lost his focus and made an unforced error. Very poor form. Especially for a driver for the Scuderia. This way Felipe will find himself soon shipped away from the Prancing Horse, possibly even during this season. (For the record, Massa was running 2nd when he spun out of the race).

Kimi - pretty well perfect drive, from second on the start, flawless race, taking over the lead from the first pit stops and then except for the second pit stop window, held the lead to the end.

Kubica. Very good smart drive. He was lucky, first Massa spinning away from him, then the McLaren pit stop taking Hamilton out of contention, and finally the remaining McLaren, Kovalainen, was stuck behind Button and Coulthard and falling so far behind as to not pose a threat to Robert in his BMW. A relatively easy race for him to 2nd place.

Heikki Kovalainen - very good drive from 9th to 3rd. With some luck, could have even made 2nd, but there was no way the McLaren was to catch the Ferrari(s) on this Sunday. Made just about the best he could.

Others worth mentioning?

Heidfeld in the other BMW was very unlucky at the start, fell back to 10th I think. Salvaged 3 points with a 6th place finish.

Webber, solid drive to 7th, 2 points.

Alonso, disappointing finish at 8th with the last point

Best of the rest, certainly Trulli in the Toyota, finishing 4th. He started 3rd (because the McLarens were relegated) and managed 4th (because Massa messed up, Hamilton's pit stop and Heidfeld's bad start) so there was luck in his drive, but a good driver needs also to be lucky. So yes, very good finish for Toyota, considering that they are not as fast as Ferrari, McLaren or BMW. 5 points for Trulli.

A good, exciting race. The lack of traction control seems to be doing a lot of good for better racing, that at least bodes well for an exciting season. But Felipe Massa, ouch. He needs to get his head together real fast or he may become the first driver not to finish the season without traction control...

Next race in Bahrain in 2 weeks. I'll do a separate posting about the form of the teams now that we have two full races to analyze and explore.. Stay tuned.

Australian GP review and thoughts

Well, it was an eventful race, wasn't it. And pretty near the worst kind of start for Ferrari. And near best possible start for McLaren, in particular for Lewis Hamilton.

But lets dig deeper.

Lewis Hamilton. Had a perfect weekend. Pole position, fastest lap (I think, I haven't seen the stats yet) and easy cruise to win. Managed to avoid most of the hassles with the pace car that messed up so many others including his team mate Heikki Kovalainen. Great race, Lewis. You earned the 10 points and a winner needs to be lucky. Perfect start to the season.

So Heikki? The qualifying could have been better but still starting on the second row was not bad. Then the race, he was right with it at the front, until unfortunate timing with his pit stop and a pace car. Was heading for a podium now that was lost. Still he at least brought the car to the finish. (this also means the McLaren is a solid and fast car to start the season)

Which is not what can be said of the Prancing Horse. Ferrari had horrible reliability issues, from Kimi's fuel pump in the qualifying to his engine dying at the race. And Massa lost his engine in the race. Come on, Ferrari. This is not the right time to produce unreliable cars! But yes, Kimi. So he started from 15th. Massa proved the car was good enough to be a front runner. So Kimi started to pass cars and by the time of his pit stops, Kimi had fought himself to third place.

As Kimi was on a one-stopper strategy, and his front-running rivals were two-stopping, at that point - when Kimi wanted to pit - he had in effect fought himself to the podium, and was very realistically fighting for the win. But then he had his major bit of bad luck with the pace car. As he could not enter the pits, with dead tyres, he was stuck going around the track several more times behind the pace car, with dead tyres now having no grip and losing whatever little bit of heat they might have held, Kimi then on the re-start ended driving off the track. Very luckily he avoided a crash, and returned - but due to the pace car situation, now all remaining cars had shot past him - this would never happen in normal race conditions if a driver overshoots a curve, he'd lose one maybe two places. Now Kimi went from third to I think 11th, anyway, dead-last in the queue. He must have been devastated.

Still, he fought back. Had his pit stop, fresh tyres, fought himself into about 5th or so, until again his tyres and now probably also engine (and pretty messed up car overall) were letting him down. So he finished 9th, but because Barrichello was disqualified, he picked up one point for 8th finish.

Yes, a pitiful performance, with several spectacular spins and driver errors - but I'm totally willing to forgive these for his brave fighting to overtake and get up the order, first from 15th to 3rd, and then again from 11th to 5th. His 8th place finish is not in any way a fair haul of points for what he did on Sunday.

But it does mean, that Ferrari do have a fast car. And a nimble car. And it suits Kimi's driving style. But he is now 9 points behind Hamilton. Not the best way to start the season. Expect Kimi to be very fired up for Malaysia.

Meanwhile Massa? Felipe, Felipe? What happened. You were Ferrari's front runner. You should have finished well ahead of Kimi, essentially in the same car. Certainly, where you start 4th and Kimi starts 15th, when the race is ten laps in, we'd expect the car running 6th to be you and the car running 20th to be Kimi, not the other way around !!

I think Massa showed again that he is prone to errors out of pressure. The spin on the first lap by Massa was not caused by any contact with any other driver. That was just driver error on new tyres at the start of the race, in relatively clear field position (not the heavily over-congesed mid-field); in short an un-forced error. Bad move Massa. Very bad. But his engine did break already at half distance so we never know if he might have had more luck in the roulette of the pace cars of this peculiar race.

Now then BMW? I wrote in my last prediction, that I expected BMW had been going backwards during the winter. Now we have Heidfeld finishing second and Kubica was running very well earlier in the race. What happened? It seems that BMW has been fooling the press and pundits, by "sandbagging" or hiding their true speed in the winter trials. Maybe they carried some extra weight in the car, to not reveal just how fast they were. Ha-ha, pretty clever... BMW seems very strong and will challenge McLaren and Ferrari for the podiums each race. I think they'll be winning their first race this season - and inspite of this race, I still think Kubica is the better driver, he'll be most likely the one to do it (with a bit more luck).

Then Williams. This team seems to be true to the pre-season form, taken giant steps ahead during the pre-season. Certainly the podium was a lot of luck with both Ferrari's out and Kovalainen behind them and only one BMW finishing the race, but still, Williams was clearly faster than Renault or the Red Bull. Happy to see Nico up there - and obviously Lewis and Nico are best friends, happy too to see such friendship among athletes who are technically rivals.

Alonso, drove a solid drive to fourth, well in excess of what the Renault really was able to do. Also Nakajima was clearly well behind his team mate in the other Williams. They picked their points simply because the rest of the field had not finished as they normally would do. The bit of particular joy for me was Toro Rosso and Sebastian Bourdais. The Toro Rosso was strong in pre-season and while its quite a long-shot for them to be in the points, happy they scored some on Sunday.

A few other observations. Nelsinho Piquet Jr was to me a big disappointment all through the weekend. I hope this is just rookie nerves, and he'll settle down much like Heikki did last year (he also started horribly badly in Australia).

I would have really wanted to see Barrichello actually win those points he had which he lost with the disqualifications. He is driving a dog of a car in the Honda, he's also that old, that he won't have many races left - maybe this season, but even one more season is starting to ask quite a lot. So these may have been his last legitimate chances for points. Shame about that.

Seven cars finished. I don't remember the race I saw that happen before ( there was once I have seen very long ago when there were less cars to physically finish than who won points, ie points were given to at least one car that did not finish) but its been a very long time.

Now to Malaysia. This race is more "normal" as a measure of team performance (Australia so often is peculiar and not really indicative)

Oh, and if you believe in omens, the winner of Australia tends to win the season. Bodes very well for Lewis Hamilton and McLaren. Still, I am sure Kimi is more happy to be in the Ferrari, even with broken fuel pump and engine, than being back at the Silver Arrows. Expect Kimi to be in top form in Kuala Lumpur...

On the Past, Present and Future Champions racing today

So lets talk Alonso, Raikkonen and Hamilton. The past champion, the current champion, and very likely the next (new) champion (whether this season or another very soon).

Last season, the closest season ever, with first and third place finisher in the championship separated by one point. One point between first and third. And so tight, the season was tied at 8 races with 2 wins each for four drivers; at 12 races, 3 wins for each of the four drivers, and at 15 races out of 17, still three drivers with the same number of wins, four each. Those three went into the final each having a chance to win the championship - and during that final race in Brazil, at different times of the race, if the race had been halted, a different driver would have won the championship.

What a season. The most competitive F1 season ever. And so exciting to follow.

Now, into 2008. The ruling champion Kimi Raikkonen remains with Ferrari to try for two-in-a-row. His nearest challeger, Lewis Hamilton, remains with McLaren who had the fastest car last season. And the deposed 2-time champion, Fernando Alonso, returns to Renault where he won twice in a row only a little over a year ago. Could it not be better for another legendary season of racing?

Yes and no. Lets look into the lives of these three drivers.

KIMI

Kimi at Ferrari. Usually when a race driver wins his first race, he gains confidence and often starts a set of wins (but there are the exceptions like Jenson Button). Also often - not always - winning the championship gives an extra boost of confidence.

Kimi had grown very frustrated at McLaren, in particular with their often fast but too unreliable cars. He had wanted to leave McLaren - and he envied Michael Schumacher's incredibly strong reliability at Ferrari - certainly the most reliable car of the decade of the 2000s (I can still remember the 1980s and 1990s when Ferraris were the LEAST reliable cars). Now Kimi is with that Ferrari team. They gave him a fast and reliable car (tied for second most reliable, and ironically McLaren was the most reliable car this past season). Kimi fought through the season to win his championship.

During the first half of last season Kimi was facing a lot of heat from his partner driver at Ferrari, Felipe Massa. Felipe led Kimi in points for a good part of the season and there were rumours that Felipe might gain the top driver position. Kimi fought on and took the championship. Now he has the Number 1 on his car and there is no question, Kimi Raikkonen is Ferrari's number 1 driver.

He is happy, on a team that is now focusing on him. He has finally gotten that very nasty monkey on his back (he twice lost the championship in the final race of the season). Kimi is very set. And where Massa had been a serious challenger last season, this season if Kimi drives well, there is no risk of Massa outperforming him. Last season it was Massa who was the established driver who knew the Ferrari team. Now Massa doesn't even have that advantage.

Also early last season there were rumours that the technical staff at Ferrari were hoping more input similar to what Michael Schumacher had given when he drove for Ferrari. Kimi doesn't go into that level of detail. But the team adjusted to Kimi's way. Now they know. From the start of the season, this is Kimi's team, and they now know from the start, how to get the maximum technical output from Kimi to help develop the car. And pre-season testing suggests it is a very fast car once again, making all at the Prancing Horse feel very enthusiastic for the new season.

As to Felipe. He had his one big chance last season to steal the number one driver status after Michael Schumacher had retired and as Kimi was clearly struggling early with Ferrari. Massa took 3 wins. That was one more than in his last season against Michael Schumacher. But 3 wins was not enough in 2007 to become Ferrari's top driver when Kimi took 6 wins. That was Felipe's chance. Now Kimi is clearly established as the top driver and Felipe knows in his heart, that he is relegated to the support driver role at Ferrari. How will this affect him? I think he can take it for one or two seasons, but it will eat him up and he will probably eventually want to change teams.

But for 2008 this is a team that is very well coming together around the champion. A good time to be named Raikkonen in Ferrari Red...

LEWIS

Lewis Hamilton had a cinderella season last season. But the McLaren team lost increasingly its focus with two disasters. One was the paranoid behaviour of Fernando Alonso, who felt he was not being treated as he felt he should as the reigning two-time champion, and later in the season, even felt he was not being treated as an equal (this I find ludicrous, as McLaren is by every bit of evidence the most fairly even team of any at F1 - meticulously giving both drivers always an even shake, and Alonso knew this full well, as he's been a McLaren fan from his youth). The other was the growing focus on the Spy Gate with Ferrari intellectual property at McLaren. So the team had produced the best car of the season for Hamilton and Alonso, but the team top management was ever more focusing on the two problems, rather than maximising the car and team performance at race weekends. Inspite of this Lewis finishes with four wins and one point behind Kimi in the champhionship. Wow what a season.

So now Alonso has left for Renault, and Lewis inherits the "After Alonso" ie Finnish driver Heikki Kovalainen who apparently has his career set in stone to follow Alonso. Last season Lewis was the rookie and both he and Alonso were new to McLaren's F1 race team. Now Lewis is the insider while Heikki is the new guy. Lewis has an inherent advantage already because of this. Plus Lewis has four wins, Heikki has never won a Grand Prix yet. Lewis should be much less threatened by internal politics this season. The team should have no big distractions, and thus give far better support to Lewis (and Heikki) during the season.

And Lewis was a rookie driver last season. He had never driven on most of the F1 circuits. Now he returns to most of the circuits knowing the race track. He is young, he is learning. Seems like everything is going better for Lewis Hamilton. Four wins last season? He should do more this season. If the McLaren is anything as good as pre-season testing suggested, Lewis will be a fixture there on the podiums again all through the season.

So what of Heikki Kovalainen? Well, he drove a good midfield car last season at Renault, against a partner who had won several races in his past. Heikki clearly outdistanced Giancarlo Fisichella and finished with almost 50% more points than his far more experienced partner. Now Heikki finds himself joining McLaren who had the fastest - and most reliable - car last season. Renault is a big team with a good budget, but McLaren is a bigger and wealthier team. At Renault he was the first Finnish driver. At McLaren Ron Dennis has worked with all three Finnish World Champions, Keke Rosberg, Mika Hakkinen and Kimi Raikkonen. There has been a Finnish driver on McLaren for something like 15 years straight. This will all help Heikki smile very widely.

And of these two young lions - both Lewis Hamilton and Heikki Kovalainen were rookies last season - they both will appreciate it that McLaren truly gives them an equal chance. Heikki knows full well that had he stayed with Renault, he would have been forced to take the support driver role with Alonso returning there. Not at McLaren.

Heikki finished second in Japan (in his Renault, behind the McLaren of Hamilton ahead of the Ferrari of Raikkonen). He is a winner waiting to happen. A race winner certainly this season. Perhaps even a championship winner eventually. But for Lewis Hamilton's brilliance, I don't see Heikki taking a championship before Lewis gets his, barring some accident or such disasters in their careers.

ALONSO

So Fernando at Renault. The only two-time champion still racing in F1, returning to the team where he won both his championships. This should be a fairy tale. But there are very serious doubts about this season and pairing. First, Fernando had wanted to leave Renault. He had been unhappy at Renault even when he won his second championship in 2006 and was eager to join McLaren, a team he had idolized since being a child. Now the McLaren fantasy has been crushed by reality, but it is telling what Alonso did NOT say when he was searching for a team after McLaren. Renault said immediately that they wanted Alonso back. He was very non-committal and suggested he preferred other teams. This is not a love-affair. Alonso ended back at Renault, because he had to go there, to have a decent car for the season. He did not go back to Renault because he wanted to return there.

Meanwhile, Renault was clearly the best car in 2006. But in 2007 it was not even the third best car (McLaren, Ferrari and BMW clearly better than the Renault all year; my analysis puts even Williams slightly ahead of Renault, during the toughest part of the year when it most counted). Alonso left the team when it was the champ. Now he returns to the team when its struggling to remain as a mid-field contender.

Now, Renault is very competent and competitive. They have not had major technical staff changes. And they are particularly motivated to deliver a contender car for Alonso. But they took a big step back last season. It is very difficult to climb back to the front - look at Williams and how much it has struggled the past ten years since its last championship. I think it is inevitable that Renault won't be the fastest - nor the most reliable - car this season. Perhaps the margin is not big, but it might be considerable. In any case, the top driver that Alonso is, and having driven the past three years in the best car of the season, he will immediately know how much worse the new Renault is, compared to the top cars this season.

That will sting really badly. He spoiled his chances with his dream team, McLaren, who will almost certainly have a faster car this season than Renault. Then Alonso has to just take it, and drive the mid-field performance car that Renault is likely to be. The pre-season testing suggests this to be true as well. So he has to return to a team he had wanted to leave, and to make matters worse, that team is not as competitive this season as it was when he last was there.

Alonso's character will be tested very much this season by these conditions. At least he has Flavio Briatore as the team principle who understands Fernando very well and can communicate with him in ways that Ron Dennis at McLaren could not. That should help.

But what of his driver partner? Nelson Piquet Jr is the son of three-time world champ, Nelson Piquet. This is his rookie season. But this has all the makings of another Alonso-Hamilton personality disaster. Nelsinho is reputed to be very quick in the junior series where he battled some of the current young drivers. And as a fiery Brazilian personality, expect Piquet to bring his amount of emotion and passion to the team. It could very quickly develop into those political squabbles that Alonso had with Hamilton at McLaren.

But consider Piquet Jr. This is his first chance at F1. He's seen Nico Rosberg, Heikki Kovalainen and Lewis Hamilton all do well here. Piquet joins to a midfield team, not struggling with a backmarker team like Anthony Davidson on Super Aguri. So Piquet has nothing to lose. He'll drive his heart out. He has a father to support him who understands that these kinds of opportunities do not come easily, so he will also make the most of it.

So imagine Alonso not happy with his car on a given circuit, but Piquet flying - this is very likely going to happen at least some times this season, where a car and circuit suits Piquet more than Alonso. Then in the race Piquet finishes ahead of Alonso. How quickly will Alonso start to complain that Piquet is getting favoured treatment.

The signs are bad for Alonso for 2008. BMW may well be a faster car than Renault, Ferrari and McLaren almost certainly are faster. Alonso will be struggling to get onto the lowest step of the podium, while Kimi and Lewis will be featured on the top step most of the season. It will sting.

WHO AGAINST WHOM

Personally, I would love a three-way race in three different cars, Kimi in the Red, Lewis in the Silver and Fernando in the blue/yellow. But I honestly don't see that as being this season. Early on it is likely to be more a three way race between Kimi, Lewis and Felipe Massa in the second Ferrari. Hopefully Heikki Kovalainen will soon climb into that contest. But I really do expect Nick Heidfeld and perhaps Robert Kubica at BMW to be more of regular rivals to McLarens and Ferraris, than Alonso with Renault. And there is a strong chance that one of the other pretenders turns into the surprise contender this season -Williams, Red Bull, Toyota or Honda.

Of course it is also quite possible that the Renault this season is far better than last season. That the team is more focused to develop the car, and that it turns into a championship challenger by mid-season. For Alonso's sake that would be tremendous. But personally, I don't expect Renaults to feature much among the winners this season. And it will be interesting to monitor how Alonso will take it if that happens.