Doing the math: Lewis holds keys to his championship

So, three races to go. The race is still mathematically alive for Robert Kubica, Kimi Raikkonen and Nick Heidfeld, but statistically they are already out of it. For example Kimi would need to win all three remaining races, and if Lewis scores even one point in every remaining race (ie finishes 8th), Lewis would tie Kimi, but with more wins, Lewis would win.

So great effort Kimi, Robert and Nick; but you are statistically eliminated already. And Heikki Kovalainen, he is mathematically eliminated. Even if he won the remaining 3 races, and Lewis scored no points, Lewis would finish ahead of Heikki, so Heikki cannot win the championship anymore this season.

So it comes down to Felipe Massa or Lewis Hamilton. And seven points between them. Yes, last year, Lewis was able to throw it all away with a lead of 17 points, but that was with his team mate racing him to the last race (now Heikki is clearly in supporting role, as he is mathematically eliminates) and Massa has not shown the steel and dedication race-in and race-out as Kimi did last season.

In any case, Lewis has the keys in his hand. He is in control of his destiny. If he finishes ahead of Massa in every remaining race, Lewis is the winner, obviously. But its better than that. Lewis can finish one position behind Massa in every remaining race (Massa first, Lewis second; or Massa second, Lewis third, etc) and still win the championship.

So for Felipe now, it is not enough that his Ferrari be faster than the McLaren for the last 3 races. Felipe can win the remaining three races, and if Lewis comes in second, Lewis takes the championship, by one point. In effect it would be the "Singapore effect" - the six point cushion, due to the pit stop failure with the fuel hose.

What Massa now needs, desperately, is for Kimi to show up, and finish second, behind Massa, but ahead of Hamilton, for at least one of the last three races (and Massa finish ahead of Hamilton for every remaining race). Thats much to ask, especially as Kimi has had a horrendous second half of the season, while he was still competing for the championship. I do doubt it whether Kimi will truly give his 100% now in the last races, when he's crashed out several times quite spectacularly at the end of the race, and still those times (Spa, Singapore) been behind Hamilton when Kimi crashed.. If he can't beat Hamilton when Kimi is racing for his own championship, how much will he push "more" to bring a supporting second position for Massa.

So its looking very promising for Hamilton. But now, what he needs is solid podium finishes to the last three races. What Lewis cannot now do, is to make the mistakes we saw last season, such as beaching his car in China for example..

Yes, it will be exciting, and yes, we could well see the two drivers within a couple of points to the last race, and what more can we honestly ask for in a season, than a competitive season. And that is what we've seen this year.