Guesstimating fuel laps for Bahrain

Wow, this is a surprise, Kubica on pole. What a great boost it would be for F1 if he actually won it as well - to have three first races with three different drivers winning - in three different cars. That would be awesome. And Kubica would be so deserving (as would BMW).

But I took a look at the Q2 times and compared with final Q3 positions, to try to guess how heavy or light the cars were and how far they would go in the race.

I think of the top 5 drivers, Massa is clearly the heaviest, he'll go 2 laps further than the others in the group. And also, Kubica seems 2 laps lighter than the other three. So my feeling is that the first to pit today in Bahrain will be Massa, then two laps later, Hamilton. A lap after that Kimi and Heikki, with Massa driving 2 laps longer still.

Lets see how well my armchair paddock spying has worked ha-ha..

And what of his chances (Kubica's). Well, if he manages to pull away - he'd need about a 4 sec window at least by the first pits to hold onto a lead, preferrably a few secs more. Plus he'd need plenty of luck in the start, stay out of trouble along the way in the race, and preferrably no pace cars to pull the pack to right behind him.

But its really shaping for a great start. Massa starting second (on the dirty side) is not known for great starts, Kimi (behind him in 4th) has often outstarted him, and Massa is prone to mistakes early in the race. Hamilton starting 3rd is known for lightning starts - and for very opportunitistic first corner moves to make up places when he isn't on pole. (Heikki hasn't a real pattern in a front-running car yet, so lets ignore him)

Hamilton on the clean side, should be able to race quickly to get alongside Massa, struggling on the dirty side of the track. These two could well be tangling with each other, even touching. And my bet is on Lewis getting past Massa. That would upset Massa who then could easily compound the problem with some hopelessly over-optimistic race moves - perhaps pushing him further back.

But Kimi, the old dog in this group - could well watch the squabble between Massa and Hamilton, and perhaps also squeeze past Massa in all the opening hassle.

Could make for a great start of the race. Can't wait.

But here's hoping Kubica is crowned the winner today in Bahrain.