So lets talk Alonso, Raikkonen and Hamilton. The past champion, the current champion, and very likely the next (new) champion (whether this season or another very soon).
Last season, the closest season ever, with first and third place finisher in the championship separated by one point. One point between first and third. And so tight, the season was tied at 8 races with 2 wins each for four drivers; at 12 races, 3 wins for each of the four drivers, and at 15 races out of 17, still three drivers with the same number of wins, four each. Those three went into the final each having a chance to win the championship - and during that final race in Brazil, at different times of the race, if the race had been halted, a different driver would have won the championship.
What a season. The most competitive F1 season ever. And so exciting to follow.
Now, into 2008. The ruling champion Kimi Raikkonen remains with Ferrari to try for two-in-a-row. His nearest challeger, Lewis Hamilton, remains with McLaren who had the fastest car last season. And the deposed 2-time champion, Fernando Alonso, returns to Renault where he won twice in a row only a little over a year ago. Could it not be better for another legendary season of racing?
Yes and no. Lets look into the lives of these three drivers.
KIMI
Kimi at Ferrari. Usually when a race driver wins his first race, he gains confidence and often starts a set of wins (but there are the exceptions like Jenson Button). Also often - not always - winning the championship gives an extra boost of confidence.
Kimi had grown very frustrated at McLaren, in particular with their often fast but too unreliable cars. He had wanted to leave McLaren - and he envied Michael Schumacher's incredibly strong reliability at Ferrari - certainly the most reliable car of the decade of the 2000s (I can still remember the 1980s and 1990s when Ferraris were the LEAST reliable cars). Now Kimi is with that Ferrari team. They gave him a fast and reliable car (tied for second most reliable, and ironically McLaren was the most reliable car this past season). Kimi fought through the season to win his championship.
During the first half of last season Kimi was facing a lot of heat from his partner driver at Ferrari, Felipe Massa. Felipe led Kimi in points for a good part of the season and there were rumours that Felipe might gain the top driver position. Kimi fought on and took the championship. Now he has the Number 1 on his car and there is no question, Kimi Raikkonen is Ferrari's number 1 driver.
He is happy, on a team that is now focusing on him. He has finally gotten that very nasty monkey on his back (he twice lost the championship in the final race of the season). Kimi is very set. And where Massa had been a serious challenger last season, this season if Kimi drives well, there is no risk of Massa outperforming him. Last season it was Massa who was the established driver who knew the Ferrari team. Now Massa doesn't even have that advantage.
Also early last season there were rumours that the technical staff at Ferrari were hoping more input similar to what Michael Schumacher had given when he drove for Ferrari. Kimi doesn't go into that level of detail. But the team adjusted to Kimi's way. Now they know. From the start of the season, this is Kimi's team, and they now know from the start, how to get the maximum technical output from Kimi to help develop the car. And pre-season testing suggests it is a very fast car once again, making all at the Prancing Horse feel very enthusiastic for the new season.
As to Felipe. He had his one big chance last season to steal the number one driver status after Michael Schumacher had retired and as Kimi was clearly struggling early with Ferrari. Massa took 3 wins. That was one more than in his last season against Michael Schumacher. But 3 wins was not enough in 2007 to become Ferrari's top driver when Kimi took 6 wins. That was Felipe's chance. Now Kimi is clearly established as the top driver and Felipe knows in his heart, that he is relegated to the support driver role at Ferrari. How will this affect him? I think he can take it for one or two seasons, but it will eat him up and he will probably eventually want to change teams.
But for 2008 this is a team that is very well coming together around the champion. A good time to be named Raikkonen in Ferrari Red...
LEWIS
Lewis Hamilton had a cinderella season last season. But the McLaren team lost increasingly its focus with two disasters. One was the paranoid behaviour of Fernando Alonso, who felt he was not being treated as he felt he should as the reigning two-time champion, and later in the season, even felt he was not being treated as an equal (this I find ludicrous, as McLaren is by every bit of evidence the most fairly even team of any at F1 - meticulously giving both drivers always an even shake, and Alonso knew this full well, as he's been a McLaren fan from his youth). The other was the growing focus on the Spy Gate with Ferrari intellectual property at McLaren. So the team had produced the best car of the season for Hamilton and Alonso, but the team top management was ever more focusing on the two problems, rather than maximising the car and team performance at race weekends. Inspite of this Lewis finishes with four wins and one point behind Kimi in the champhionship. Wow what a season.
So now Alonso has left for Renault, and Lewis inherits the "After Alonso" ie Finnish driver Heikki Kovalainen who apparently has his career set in stone to follow Alonso. Last season Lewis was the rookie and both he and Alonso were new to McLaren's F1 race team. Now Lewis is the insider while Heikki is the new guy. Lewis has an inherent advantage already because of this. Plus Lewis has four wins, Heikki has never won a Grand Prix yet. Lewis should be much less threatened by internal politics this season. The team should have no big distractions, and thus give far better support to Lewis (and Heikki) during the season.
And Lewis was a rookie driver last season. He had never driven on most of the F1 circuits. Now he returns to most of the circuits knowing the race track. He is young, he is learning. Seems like everything is going better for Lewis Hamilton. Four wins last season? He should do more this season. If the McLaren is anything as good as pre-season testing suggested, Lewis will be a fixture there on the podiums again all through the season.
So what of Heikki Kovalainen? Well, he drove a good midfield car last season at Renault, against a partner who had won several races in his past. Heikki clearly outdistanced Giancarlo Fisichella and finished with almost 50% more points than his far more experienced partner. Now Heikki finds himself joining McLaren who had the fastest - and most reliable - car last season. Renault is a big team with a good budget, but McLaren is a bigger and wealthier team. At Renault he was the first Finnish driver. At McLaren Ron Dennis has worked with all three Finnish World Champions, Keke Rosberg, Mika Hakkinen and Kimi Raikkonen. There has been a Finnish driver on McLaren for something like 15 years straight. This will all help Heikki smile very widely.
And of these two young lions - both Lewis Hamilton and Heikki Kovalainen were rookies last season - they both will appreciate it that McLaren truly gives them an equal chance. Heikki knows full well that had he stayed with Renault, he would have been forced to take the support driver role with Alonso returning there. Not at McLaren.
Heikki finished second in Japan (in his Renault, behind the McLaren of Hamilton ahead of the Ferrari of Raikkonen). He is a winner waiting to happen. A race winner certainly this season. Perhaps even a championship winner eventually. But for Lewis Hamilton's brilliance, I don't see Heikki taking a championship before Lewis gets his, barring some accident or such disasters in their careers.
ALONSO
So Fernando at Renault. The only two-time champion still racing in F1, returning to the team where he won both his championships. This should be a fairy tale. But there are very serious doubts about this season and pairing. First, Fernando had wanted to leave Renault. He had been unhappy at Renault even when he won his second championship in 2006 and was eager to join McLaren, a team he had idolized since being a child. Now the McLaren fantasy has been crushed by reality, but it is telling what Alonso did NOT say when he was searching for a team after McLaren. Renault said immediately that they wanted Alonso back. He was very non-committal and suggested he preferred other teams. This is not a love-affair. Alonso ended back at Renault, because he had to go there, to have a decent car for the season. He did not go back to Renault because he wanted to return there.
Meanwhile, Renault was clearly the best car in 2006. But in 2007 it was not even the third best car (McLaren, Ferrari and BMW clearly better than the Renault all year; my analysis puts even Williams slightly ahead of Renault, during the toughest part of the year when it most counted). Alonso left the team when it was the champ. Now he returns to the team when its struggling to remain as a mid-field contender.
Now, Renault is very competent and competitive. They have not had major technical staff changes. And they are particularly motivated to deliver a contender car for Alonso. But they took a big step back last season. It is very difficult to climb back to the front - look at Williams and how much it has struggled the past ten years since its last championship. I think it is inevitable that Renault won't be the fastest - nor the most reliable - car this season. Perhaps the margin is not big, but it might be considerable. In any case, the top driver that Alonso is, and having driven the past three years in the best car of the season, he will immediately know how much worse the new Renault is, compared to the top cars this season.
That will sting really badly. He spoiled his chances with his dream team, McLaren, who will almost certainly have a faster car this season than Renault. Then Alonso has to just take it, and drive the mid-field performance car that Renault is likely to be. The pre-season testing suggests this to be true as well. So he has to return to a team he had wanted to leave, and to make matters worse, that team is not as competitive this season as it was when he last was there.
Alonso's character will be tested very much this season by these conditions. At least he has Flavio Briatore as the team principle who understands Fernando very well and can communicate with him in ways that Ron Dennis at McLaren could not. That should help.
But what of his driver partner? Nelson Piquet Jr is the son of three-time world champ, Nelson Piquet. This is his rookie season. But this has all the makings of another Alonso-Hamilton personality disaster. Nelsinho is reputed to be very quick in the junior series where he battled some of the current young drivers. And as a fiery Brazilian personality, expect Piquet to bring his amount of emotion and passion to the team. It could very quickly develop into those political squabbles that Alonso had with Hamilton at McLaren.
But consider Piquet Jr. This is his first chance at F1. He's seen Nico Rosberg, Heikki Kovalainen and Lewis Hamilton all do well here. Piquet joins to a midfield team, not struggling with a backmarker team like Anthony Davidson on Super Aguri. So Piquet has nothing to lose. He'll drive his heart out. He has a father to support him who understands that these kinds of opportunities do not come easily, so he will also make the most of it.
So imagine Alonso not happy with his car on a given circuit, but Piquet flying - this is very likely going to happen at least some times this season, where a car and circuit suits Piquet more than Alonso. Then in the race Piquet finishes ahead of Alonso. How quickly will Alonso start to complain that Piquet is getting favoured treatment.
The signs are bad for Alonso for 2008. BMW may well be a faster car than Renault, Ferrari and McLaren almost certainly are faster. Alonso will be struggling to get onto the lowest step of the podium, while Kimi and Lewis will be featured on the top step most of the season. It will sting.
WHO AGAINST WHOM
Personally, I would love a three-way race in three different cars, Kimi in the Red, Lewis in the Silver and Fernando in the blue/yellow. But I honestly don't see that as being this season. Early on it is likely to be more a three way race between Kimi, Lewis and Felipe Massa in the second Ferrari. Hopefully Heikki Kovalainen will soon climb into that contest. But I really do expect Nick Heidfeld and perhaps Robert Kubica at BMW to be more of regular rivals to McLarens and Ferraris, than Alonso with Renault. And there is a strong chance that one of the other pretenders turns into the surprise contender this season -Williams, Red Bull, Toyota or Honda.
Of course it is also quite possible that the Renault this season is far better than last season. That the team is more focused to develop the car, and that it turns into a championship challenger by mid-season. For Alonso's sake that would be tremendous. But personally, I don't expect Renaults to feature much among the winners this season. And it will be interesting to monitor how Alonso will take it if that happens.
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