Setting the base line for 2008 season

Its a week to the season. I can't wait.

Lets start with some benchmarks for this season.

LAST SEASON IS NOT GOOD PREDICTOR FOR NEW SEASON

First, this is Formula One. Each leading team has a staff of five hundred full time engineers working very long days all year to create a prototype racer that will only be used on 18 weekends. Imagine the amount of effort. Put 500 people to work on trying to win next year, and some team will get it "right" and another will get it "wrong". Look at Honda for example, one season it is the runner up to the championship, another it is fighting with the back-markers.

So regardless of what happened in the 2007 season, it is almost certain, that we will have some surprisingly strong teams, and some disappointingly weak teams, when compared with last season.

We have two major changes which affect all teams. The drivers aids that prevented wheel spin in the turns are now gone. So all the recent experience of drivers on how to "attack" a corner, now has to be un-learned, and a more traditional "driver-controlled" way of taking the corners needs to be re-learned.

These are F1 drivers, the best pilots in the world, so they will of course learn. But it is very likely, that this change will result in some subtle, and perhaps even some not-so-subtle re-arranging of the drivers, from best to worst. If a driver has been taking advantage of the drivers' aids in the past, and is in reality not quite up-to-snuff among the 20 best drivers in the world, now that will be revealed. Most of the drivers will adjust, no problem.

But it will bring about at least some opportunities for more errors. A tired driver, near the end of the race, trying to fight off a charging rival, locks up a wheel going into a corner. This is no longer saved by the wheel-spin control. Now the wheel locks up, and might force the driver off the line (and allow his rival to pass) or else create a bald spot on the tyre further harming the remainder of the race.

I do hope this brings more excitement into the races.

A related change is the standard ECU (Electronic Controls Unit). Previously all teams created their own, and this was a source of considerable competitive advantage for any given team in the development cycle of their particular car. The ECU was responsible for example for Renault's excellent starts a few years ago. Now all cars have a standard ECU. One area of competiveness is again removed from the teams.

(By the way, I hate this trend in F1. I did not like it that engines were "frozen" for the whole season, and that there is now only one tyre-manufacturer, so we have no tyre wars and they give no competitive advantage; and now a standard ECU. I think this is a very bad trend, if this goes on, some day they race a standard car.)

But yes, the standard ECU was put out to bid by Formula One Management and McLaren won the bid. This may give a (small) early advantage to McLaren, that their ECU won the contest. Whatever advantage that might give, will soon disappear as all teams learn the new ECU and adjust their cars to it.

Ok. So even before we look at last season for some insights to next, we have to remember, that the next season is not quite the same.

NATURAL CHANGES

Then we have the "natural order" of change in F1. McLaren has exhibited a very consistent see-saw pattern of up-and-down-and-up-again seasons. One season they are a title challenger, the next they are a midfielder, then up again. Last season McLaren had the best car. This season if the old pattern holds, McLaren is headed down.

The Champion usually repeats. This is not always so, certainly, but for the past 10 pairs of years from 1998 (not counting 2007), a new champion repeats. Mika Hakkinen repeated 2 in a row with McLaren. Michael Schumacher repeated 5 in a row with Ferrari. Then Fernando Alonso repeated 2 in a row with Renault. So there is a good chance that Kimi Raikkonen will be able to repeat for 2008.

A new team to the top will not usually manage to hold onto that position at the first attempt. Honda was a surprise in 2004, Toyota in 2005, but both crashed to under half their "peak" points in the subsequent season. This does not bode well for BMW.

The old stalwarts tend to bounce back. Williams is the third most successful F1 team of all time and was a major challenger to the championship in 2003. They are still well funded and quite capable of strong performances. They will come back, if not this season, then soon. Renault is the second most successful team of the past 20 years (when we include its predecessor team, Benetton) behind only Ferrari. They have had their ups and downs. They too are a solidly funded team, and they can very well bounce back to full championship challenger, if not this season, then soon.

BASE LINE FOR TEAMS

With all that, lets look at 2007 in a bit more detail. Obviously if we just look at the final standings (and allocate McLaren the points it lost due to the spygate), McLaren was the best car and with 218 points, Ferrari second best car with only 6% less points at 204. BMW a distant third with half the points from Ferrari at 101. Again a big gap to fourth, Renault with half again the points, at 51. Williams fifth best car with 33, Red Bull sixth 24, Toyota seventh with 13, Toro Rosso eight with 8, Honda ninth with 6, Super Aguri tenth with 4 and Spyker (now racing as Force India for 2008) last with 1 point.

So far so good. This to me is not a "real" accurate base line to consider 2008. Two very major reasons why. The initial start of the season has always some problems. Some teams are not ready at the start of the season, some have teething problems etc. And then at the end of the season some teams stop developing their cars, when they know they can no longer make meaningful gains in the standings. So some cars achieve artificially strong results in the start of the season, because everybody is not yet up to full speed. And at the end of the season, some teams collect points when others are no longer fighting that hard.

I think the most realistic evaluation of the season comes from approx mid season to the end of the European season. This past season the American tour provides a good timing point - as most teams did not develop their cars in any meaningful way between Canada and the USA. So if we start from when the teams returned from America - that is the French GP - and then count the next seven GP's until Spa in Belgium. After that the teams left for the last 3 fly-away races in Asia and Brazil, and again for these the development for many teams had slowed down or even ended.

Now, if we look at the 7 races from the French GP to the Belgian GP, the results are quite interesting..

The best car was not in fact McLaren. McLaren achieved its season-success from a strong start in 2007. Ferrari improved all season and ended strong. During this 7 race period, during which the teams raced their hardest - and where the last season's car is nearest to what this new season might be like - actually Ferrari was slightly better with 90 points earned by their two cars during these seven races.. McLaren was 4% weaker at 86 points. And BMW? Much better than half the points to second place, actually they scored 60% of second place with 51 points.

How about Renault? The end-of-season stats flatter Renault. In reality it was not that good, when it really counted and everybody was racing. Williams was marginally better, earning 15 points to Renault's 14. And Red Bull was sniping at their heels with 12 points. This is the mid-field. Note that BMW was much further ahead of this group, scoring more than 3 times as many points than Williams during the seven game stint.

A distant distant place behind them, Toyota scored 3 points and Honda scored 2. The backmarker teams earned no points during this seven race most-contested stage of the season.

So what does that tell me? First, that we had legitimately three groups (or four) of teams.

Ferrari, McLaren and BMW were the only real contenders for podiums. Obviously BMW was not competitive with Ferrari and McLaren, but much more close to the front-runners than the mid-fielders.

The midfield is three makers, six cars. Two Williams'es, two Renaults and two Red Bulls. These cars were very evenly matched. The big reason why Renault ran away from Williams and Red Bull in the full season was reliability. Renault was tied for second most reliable car (McLaren was most reliable, Ferrari and Renault tied for second most reliable). And Red Bull lost out in this battle of the midfield, as their was the least-reliable car of the three, failing twice as often as the Williams and nearly four times as often as the Renault.

The backmarkers really do include Toyota and Honda (sadly, considering their long term commitments and sizes of their budgets), together with Super Aguri, Toro Rosso and Spyker/Force India.

That is our base line for the cars.

Ferrari
McLaren
BMW

Williams
Renault
Red Bull

Toyota
Honda
Super Aguri
Toro Rosso
Spyker/Force India

NOW MY THOUGHTS

Quickly on each car and what may happen in 2008

FRONT RUNNERS

Ferrari. The team just returned to the championship. They won the drivers championship "fair" and the manufacturers' championship as McLaren lost its points in the spy scandal. Ferrari is very motivated to repeat (and to show the manufacturers' championship was no fluke). The internal driver contest that raged through last season - and probably caused some internal political issues, is now settled with Kimi holding the Number 1 on his car and being the clear team leader. There has been some turnover in the engineering staff, with Jean Todt stepping aside, but overall, the team is very cohesively the same unit as last year, in particular with both drivers Raikkonen and Massa returning. The pre-season testing has also shown Ferrari to have a promising car. And Kimi should be supremely motivated and happy. Should be a very good season for Ferrari.

McLaren. I mentioned about the see-saw of McLaren's consecutive seasons. When they have a top season, the next is very often a mediocre season. They are also hampered with some development issues, as a result of the spy scandal, that they cannot pursue some development options, to ensure they do not utilize intellectual property of Ferrari. But, they also have the early season advantage that it is their ECU which everybody uses. Cannot hurt. They've had some changes in the technical staff, but the big change is obviously Alonso departing to Renault, in exchange for Kovalainen. My gut says that McLaren's season-long team performance in 2007 suffered from two major distractions - the spy gate, and the internal squabbles between Alonso and Hamilton. Both are now past. And as for Kovalainen rather than Alonso as Hamilton's driver partner, I think this is one of the most friendly pairings possible, with Ron Dennis knowing Finns very well, and Kovalainen arriving only asking to be treated fair and equally - not demanding the preferred treatment that Alonso wanted. Incidentially, McLaren's season-long performance in 2007 was a clear downward trend (and Ferrari's the opposite). When these two distractions are removed, McLaren can be stronger. Hamilton now is the returning driver so for him everything about the second season in F1 will be easier. And considering that in his first season in F1, Hamilton won 4 races, this is an incredibly talented driver only getting better. For Kovalainen, it is a new team, so he will probably suffer typical early season adjustment matters. So McLaren could go either way. Their pre-season testing shows a lot of promise like Ferrari's. Could well suggest a strong season for McLaren as well, and one that may well improve with the season.

BMW. Here my heart says they will improve and my head says they will go back. As Sauber or BMW, they haven't ever performed as well as they did this past season. They took a giant leap up in points in 2007 almost trippling their points from 2006, from 36 to 101 points. Here history does suggest the leap has been so great, that there will come a downturn. Maybe not? It is a team that has been growing a lot, adding much in terms of a budget and staff. They have had several major changes in staff, but this is still the result of more growth than major losses of key talent. Oh, and BMW does have the most powerful computer for their CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) calculations, Albert 2 was rated the fourth-most powerful supercomputer at some point last year. They do have the stability in drivers, Quick Nick Heidfeld and Robert Kubica; Heidfeld was twice on the podium in 2007 and Kubica was three times knocking on the door, finishing fourth. If the team can stay focused and work hard, and have some luck along the way, it could be another step up - which would mean the first win ever for this team. I would hope to see that in 2008.

MID FIELD

Williams. This is a team that has been in the doldrums for several seasons, but seemed to hit bottom in 2006 when they had financial issues and driver issues. Last season shows a lot of promise and this is a very deep, talented team with a pedigree for winning with Sir Frank Williams and Patrick Head still running the team. Their technical staff lost two aerodynamists in mid-season 2007 but since then the staff has been stable. Of the drivers, Alex Wurz ended his career but Nico Rosberg had emerged as their top driver and returns. Kazuki Nakajima had one race in the car last season and is still a rookie for this season. My gut says Williams is "automatically" improving during the next few seasons and from modest performance last season, it would be relatively easy to improve this season. Williams could be a strong contender this season. Nico had a great second half so he is also likely to still improve in the car.

Renault. Here I am concerned. Renault should definitely be improving from a very bad year last year, when their points totals crashed to one fourth of what they had in 2006, dropping from 206 to 51 points. Yes, they lost their two-time world champ Alonso to McLaren, but in 2007 they retained Alonso's partner, Fisichella. And new boy, Kovalainen outperformed Fisi. So if we assume Fisi performed in the 2007 car about as good as he did in the 2006 car, then two important things - one, that the car was a dog, and two, that Kovalainen was somewhere near Alonso's class as a driver, certainly clearly better than Fisi. If so, then Renault took a major dive in 2007. That kind of drop in performance is very difficult to dig back. It would probably take a couple of years to return to top form for the team. I do think that Renault improves from its 2007 form, but I don't think they will be in the class of McLaren and Ferrari (and perhaps not even challenging BMW). Then we will see Alonso facing a very difficult challenge indeed. The past 3 years he's been sitting in the best car of the field. Now he'd be sitting in a midfield car, with his two major rivals for the championship (Kimi Raikkonen and Lewis Hamilton) both in cars clearly better than his. Alonso might be up to more of his bursts of anger and accusation. Renault may have a hard time with the former champ if the car is not immediately fast. And thats not even considering Junior Nelson Piquet.. Piquet may well pose further challenges to Alonso, in particular if Alonso starts to blame the slow Renault car, and Piquet feels motivated to win top driver status on the team... I am afraid Renault is headed for troubled times this year, and that this season will be another test of Alonso's character and maturity.

Red Bull. This is a team that is making solid progress. Steady steady up and up. This former Jaguar team has some of the best talent to build their car in design guru Adrian Newey and another legend, Geoff Willis. Some of Newey's cars in the past have been fragile - and the Red Bull last season was certainly prone to failure, but this is a team that is growing and improving. I think they'll make progress. Their driver lineup is the same with Webber and Coulthard. If the engineers manage to make a hit car, this could be a surprise team. Certainly the very experienced driver pair can capitalize on a good car if given one.

BACKMARKERS

Toyota. Oh, Toyota, when will you fulfill your promise? The team with very deep pockets, was humiliated that Williams used their engines and outperformed the works Toyota team with nearly tripple the points in 2007. Ralf Schumacher was underperforming and deservedly was let go. Jarno Trulli is a driver known for fast single lap performance but not strong races. Now rookie Timo Glock joins the team. On the engineering side the team has been quite stable. This is a team I keep hoping for every season and they quite consistently disappoint. Perhaps this is their year?

Honda. This is even more sad than Toyota. Similar big budget Japanese works team which was contesting the championship a couple of years ago and everybody thought the team with a big F1 racing pedigree was finally going to challenge the big names, but no. Now Honda just barely outpeformed its junior team Super Aguri (which used the one year older Honda design car). The big news for this season at Honda is Ross Brawn, who took a one-year sabbatical from Ferrari last season, and now joined Honda. He is one of those giants who can single-handedly turn this underperforming team around and seems to have energized the team. But last year's car was such a dog that there is very much to do to get back to being just respectable. What I would certainly expect, however, is that Ross Brawn will propel Honda out of the backfielders, during this season. At least to the midfielders, certainly by the second half of the season. Toyota watch out, Honda is aiming to pass you... The driver pairing of Button and Barrichello return, both drivers can win if given a front-runner car, but that is likely to not happen before 2009. A stolen podium could happen in 2008 for Honda.

Toro Rosso. Then we have the three junior teams that are the legitimate backmarkers, to fill the numbers. Toro Rosso will suffer being Red Bull's junior team. They are run by Gerhard Berger, so this is a team that will fight, but with a modest budget and junior drivers... Two Sebastians for this season. Sebastian Vettel actually performed very well last season after joining the team finishing fourth in China (on a Toro Rosso, that is a very respectable performance, Coulthard only managed one fourth in the Red Bull car..). Sebastian Bourdais is a rookie.

Super Aguri. The Honda junior team was having financial problems into the start of the season, I hope they are now resolved. We don't want to lose this small but spunky team, built around Takuma Sato. Anthony Davidson returns as the other driver. Some issues with Honda about how much support Honda can give the team, which may affect strongly how competitive they can be. This is one of those little guy teams, the over-performing underdog, that anyone can cheer for. Certainly we can't expect much more than the occasional point.

Force India (formerly Spyker). And the team formerly known as Midland formerly known as Jordan returns now as Force India. Adrian Sutil and Giancarlo Fisichella are the drivers. The team is a small player in a game where you need huge budgets to fight in the mid-field. Lets see if Indian billionaire Vijay Mallya wants to spend the kind of money to make Force India more than a backmarker. For this season, a couple of points is about the best they can hope for.

OK THATS ALL FOR NOW

Well, thats the base line for 2008, obviously I have no inside knowledge so its my gut and guesses and if anyone is reading, I've done these kinds of predictions (privately, before this blog) for a couple of decades and I've mostly been wrong, so please do take this with that grain of salt...

But its kind of fun to put the thoughts on paper, so to speak, to think through what changes are happening how next season may be different from the last.