Monday, April 21, 2008
Congratulations Danica Patrick!
While this is an F1 blog and I don't really follow other car racing series, this is a moment certainly worth celebrating. Danica Patric has become the first woman to win a major single-seater race. She won the Indy Car race in Japan. Congrats Danica! Now, when will we see a woman racing F1? If you notice, most F1 racers are relatively small men ha-ha, a woman would fit that cockpit more easily than a man...
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
So what is on the mind of a champion?
There are 3 champions driving in f1 today, arguably. The past champ Alonso, the current champ Kimi and the next champ, Hamilton. What is on their mind now, 3 races into the 08 season?
Alonso
Last year the reigning champ had made his switch from mid size Renault team to one of the true big teams, McLaren. At 3 races in he had won once and was tied for the lead in points. His old team Renault was not competitive in 2007. While Hamiton was getting a lot of attention, Alonso was mentally in a good place. He knew he had made the switch to McLaren at exactly the right moment in time, when Renault was past its prime, and McLaren was strong.
What a difference a year makes. Now Alonso is back at Renault. The dream of winning championships with his boyhood fave team, shattered. To make matters worse, Renault isnt even among top 3 teams this season.
Alonso is freed from the season of strong rivalry with Hamilton, and the increasingly poisonous atmosphere at McLaren. But he's been spoiled the last 3 seasons driving the fastest car of the year, now he's in a mid-field car. This is a tough adjustment for Fernando. And where he's used to racing up front of the grid, now he's permanently stuck in mid-field, crashing with the other mid-fielders at the chaos of the race starts.
His return to Renault was admidst specualation of escape clauses in his contract. He does not want to remain there. So also Alonso's motivation for helping Renault grow and become competitive in the long run, is at least in question.
This is a downturn for Alonso in both car, and his personal motivation. It does not help, to see that his two rivals from last year, Kimi and Lewis, are in faster cars. Expect the former Champ to feel very frustrated this season, or perhaps to tune out and not give his best. We'll see.
Hamilton
So then Lewis. Last season at this time he had gotten his promotion to the ultimate in his sport, moved from the junior teams to F1, and straight onto the McLaren team, to partner the two-time reigning champ, Alonso. A golden opportunity to be the understudy of the best driver still driving, as Schumacher had retired. And as we saw, Hamilton was already impressing everyone not losing pace to Alonso in the same car. At the start of the season it was also obvious the early advantage that Ferrari had held in Melbourne, was quickly caught up by McLaren and by the third race McLaren was cetainly a car with the pace to race Ferrari. As the young driver with Alonso having all the pressure, Hamilton had the perfect opportunity to show what he could do, and any success would be a positive. And obviously last year at this time even without having won yet, Lewis was tied for the championship lead three races into the season.
Now a year later, Lewis senses that this time around, McLaren is not the fastest car, there is a clear margin to Ferrari. He hasn't been to this situation before (at the F1 level). What is worse, he sees clearly that BMW is about as fast as the McLaren so he is more likely to fight for a podium finish with Kubica, Heidfeld and Kovalainen; than racing Kimi and Massa for the win.
Lewis also finds himself as the returning or "senior" driver at McLaren, with Heikki as his "understudy". The British press expect Lewis to blow Heikki away in head-to-head compeition, but Kovalainen is tenaciously competing and tied for points. It wasn't supposed to be like this.
Lewis can take solace, looking at Alonso stuck in mid-field, but he is no doubt concerned about Kimi in a much faster Ferrari this season. Will Hamilton have to let the two red cars escape into the distance, and race for third place against Kubica and Heidfeld (and Kovalainen)?
Inside McLaren there are rumours that Ron Dennis won't be there forever, how long will he be around and how involved will Ron be and what effect will this have to the team. A well-oiled McLaren machine may not be as smooth-running as it has been in the past; perhaps Lewis came to the team just too late, if it starts a decline from this season, like what happened to Renault last season or Williams a few years earlier when a formerly winning car can't get any wins at all.
And he faces the pressure of the British motoring press. They cheered him on last season for his cinderella season and were forgiving for rookie mistakes. This season they expect much more - a championship - and now scrutinize all small flaws. Even more they compare Hamilton to Kovalainen, adding to the pressure on Lewis.
Finally there is McLaren's philophy of allowing its racers to race each other. This benefitted him last season, and angered the "established winner" Alonso. But this season it will benefit Heikki to the detriment of Lewis's chances at the championship. What was good karma last year is bad karma this year for Lewis.
Last season at this time Lewis had not won an F1 race, but was feeling almost sheer delight in racing. This season he has won a race already, yet has a sinking feeling that he may be perhaps unable to contest for the championship.
Kimi
Finally there is Kimi. Last year at this point he had won one race for Ferrari and was tied for the championship lead. But Kimi also knew the key to his win was the flexible floor design of the Ferrari which was banned after Melbourne, and the revised car was not as fast. He also knew they had wind tunnel problems, so the development of the Ferrari would suffer. He was not secure in his position with Ferrari, where Massa was the "insider" and Kimi the outsider. And Massa had won a race as well at this point last season, and Massa was comfortable not only with the team, but also with the Bridgestone tyres which Kimi was having trouble adjusting to. And finally, the Ferrari had been designed before Kimi had joined the team, so it was not set up close to suit his driving style. Kimi certainly felt happy to have been able to depart McLaren but was by no means certain he would become the master at Ferrari, inspite of what his outwardly confidence would suggest. The Italian sporting press was also fuelling rumours about the Massa-Raikkonen contest for number one status with the team. And there was the sceptre of Schumacher hanging around the paddock, such as Jean Todt bringing the mobile phone with Schumacher on the line, to Kimi when Kimi was about to step to the podium for his first win in Melbourne (and Kimi duly disconnected the call and did not want to talk with the former champ). Whose team was it, Kimi's, Massa's or perhaps still, Schumacher's?
This time around in 2008, Kimi is in the ultimate sweet spot. He is the reigning champ. He disposed the old champ (Alonso) who had driven the faster car last season. But now Kimi has the fastest car of the season, in fact the first time in his F1 career, Kimi knows he has the fastest car.
Last year this time Kimi was battling Massa for team leader status. Now wearing that Number 1 on his nosecone, there is no question, that this is Kimi's team. Massa is the supporting driver. They both know it and so does the whole team.
Kimi is comfortable with the Bridgestone tyres. The car was designed more to suit his driving style. For a race driver his tools are utmost to his liking. And Kimi has made it very clear, he does not need to be chaperoned by Schumacher; Kimi can win championships for Ferrari all by himself.
The change removing traction control was expected to expose strong and weak drivers. Certainly Massa is proven to be one who had benefitted from traction control. Kimi has adjusted very well to this new era, while Massa is one of the drivers most to have suffered.
Kimi has already won one race this season and this time he leads the championship. His truest rival is his own team-mate Massa, and on this team, more than any other, Kimi knows the team won't let Massa overshadow the reigning champion Ferrari driver. This is the best team to be in, if the closest rival for the championship is your team-mate.
Then Kimi looks at McLaren. The disappointment last season to observe, that after all those years when McLaren was not the fastest car, of course when he left, suddenly McLaren became the fastest car. Well, now that has passed. He was able to beat them in a slower car, it will be easier this season.
And Kimi thinking of Lewis? Not only will he have Heikki bleeding points off Lewis, but there are the BMW's contesting for podiums (and even perhaps the Williams on a good day). Lewis will have a much harder time to score 8 points or 6 points per race to keep up with Kimi in the championship this time, than last year when it was only a race between the two teams, McLaren and Ferrari. Kimi also can see that Lewis's incredible luck last year, when battling for position at the start of the race, or occasional race indidents, is now reversing, and when battling from the mid-field, Lewis is a mere mortal after all. Thus the true risk posed by Hamilton in his second season is significantly less than it was in 2007. And of Kovalainen, Kimi will feel even less threatened by Heikki than Lewis on that team, knowing McLaren very well, and seeing that Heikki is still chasing his first win.
And Kimi thinking of Alonso? Kimi can clearly see that this season Renault will not be able to overtake McLaren, BMW and Ferrari to claw himself back into contention for the championship. For this season at least, Alonso is already out of the picture.
What of the BMW boys? They are second (Heidfeld) and tied-for third (Kubica) in the championship, but this team has never won a race, far less a championship. So the intellect in Raikkonen knows that team is far from a true contender this season, they need to win a race first, before they start to consider the Championship. Yes, BMW can be a worthy rival this season, but with Ferrari's organization, discipline and competence, in a tight race, BMW is entering a level they have not yet been to. Again advantage Kimi.
He has said many times towards the end of his time at McLaren, that Kimi was not too happy, and felt he might quit racing soon. Now at Ferrari, he has said time and again, that he is superbly happy and feels like he was at home.
Kimi's been around the circuits for long enough to know any given weekend might go to one team or one driver rather than another. Luck plays a big part in race incidents, the pace car, rain, etc. And there are always the occasional technical issues in motor racing. Kimi also knows that the championship requires most of all consistency race in and race out, that he witnessed watching Schumacher win 5 in a row. He sees that when Kimi is starting from mid-field, he can race up to the podium and take valuable points. But now recently each of Alonso, Hamlton and Massa, when stuck in mid-field, are prone to errors, accidents, broken nose-cones, etc, demolishing chances for those valuable points.
More so than any of his rivals, Kimi knows what is the value of just one point at the end of the season, and will fight for every one that is available to him.
Last season he was hopeful of his switch of teams to Ferrari. Now he knows it was the right thing to do. Last season he battled a team-mate who is now subdued. Last season he struggled to learn new tyres, this time he knows them. Last season the car was not to his liking, and now it is. Last season he was in the second-fastest car, now its clear Ferrari is the fastest car. Last season the his strongest pre-season rival Alonso was in the fastest car. This season of his strongest pre-season rivals, Alonso is in a mid-field car, and even McLaren might be slower than the BMW and is not in Ferrari's class.
All his F1 career Kimi has been the underdog, having to scrape and fight for being within contention. He has rarely held a points lead for long in a season. The fact he twice went into the final race with a mathematical chance to win the championship, in an inferior car, was due to his consistency. Now he brings that consistency, and maturity, to the fastest car. He deservedly already leads the champhionship, but more importantly, he is already 35% ahead of his nearest "real" rival, Hamilton in points. If this pattern holds for the full season, Kimi would win the championship by a massive margin of 30 points - and thus clinch his second championship three races before the end of the season.
The mind of a champion. Three minds, three champions. There is an unhappy Alonso. There is an uncertain Hamilton. And there is a happy Raikkonen.
Alonso
Last year the reigning champ had made his switch from mid size Renault team to one of the true big teams, McLaren. At 3 races in he had won once and was tied for the lead in points. His old team Renault was not competitive in 2007. While Hamiton was getting a lot of attention, Alonso was mentally in a good place. He knew he had made the switch to McLaren at exactly the right moment in time, when Renault was past its prime, and McLaren was strong.
What a difference a year makes. Now Alonso is back at Renault. The dream of winning championships with his boyhood fave team, shattered. To make matters worse, Renault isnt even among top 3 teams this season.
Alonso is freed from the season of strong rivalry with Hamilton, and the increasingly poisonous atmosphere at McLaren. But he's been spoiled the last 3 seasons driving the fastest car of the year, now he's in a mid-field car. This is a tough adjustment for Fernando. And where he's used to racing up front of the grid, now he's permanently stuck in mid-field, crashing with the other mid-fielders at the chaos of the race starts.
His return to Renault was admidst specualation of escape clauses in his contract. He does not want to remain there. So also Alonso's motivation for helping Renault grow and become competitive in the long run, is at least in question.
This is a downturn for Alonso in both car, and his personal motivation. It does not help, to see that his two rivals from last year, Kimi and Lewis, are in faster cars. Expect the former Champ to feel very frustrated this season, or perhaps to tune out and not give his best. We'll see.
Hamilton
So then Lewis. Last season at this time he had gotten his promotion to the ultimate in his sport, moved from the junior teams to F1, and straight onto the McLaren team, to partner the two-time reigning champ, Alonso. A golden opportunity to be the understudy of the best driver still driving, as Schumacher had retired. And as we saw, Hamilton was already impressing everyone not losing pace to Alonso in the same car. At the start of the season it was also obvious the early advantage that Ferrari had held in Melbourne, was quickly caught up by McLaren and by the third race McLaren was cetainly a car with the pace to race Ferrari. As the young driver with Alonso having all the pressure, Hamilton had the perfect opportunity to show what he could do, and any success would be a positive. And obviously last year at this time even without having won yet, Lewis was tied for the championship lead three races into the season.
Now a year later, Lewis senses that this time around, McLaren is not the fastest car, there is a clear margin to Ferrari. He hasn't been to this situation before (at the F1 level). What is worse, he sees clearly that BMW is about as fast as the McLaren so he is more likely to fight for a podium finish with Kubica, Heidfeld and Kovalainen; than racing Kimi and Massa for the win.
Lewis also finds himself as the returning or "senior" driver at McLaren, with Heikki as his "understudy". The British press expect Lewis to blow Heikki away in head-to-head compeition, but Kovalainen is tenaciously competing and tied for points. It wasn't supposed to be like this.
Lewis can take solace, looking at Alonso stuck in mid-field, but he is no doubt concerned about Kimi in a much faster Ferrari this season. Will Hamilton have to let the two red cars escape into the distance, and race for third place against Kubica and Heidfeld (and Kovalainen)?
Inside McLaren there are rumours that Ron Dennis won't be there forever, how long will he be around and how involved will Ron be and what effect will this have to the team. A well-oiled McLaren machine may not be as smooth-running as it has been in the past; perhaps Lewis came to the team just too late, if it starts a decline from this season, like what happened to Renault last season or Williams a few years earlier when a formerly winning car can't get any wins at all.
And he faces the pressure of the British motoring press. They cheered him on last season for his cinderella season and were forgiving for rookie mistakes. This season they expect much more - a championship - and now scrutinize all small flaws. Even more they compare Hamilton to Kovalainen, adding to the pressure on Lewis.
Finally there is McLaren's philophy of allowing its racers to race each other. This benefitted him last season, and angered the "established winner" Alonso. But this season it will benefit Heikki to the detriment of Lewis's chances at the championship. What was good karma last year is bad karma this year for Lewis.
Last season at this time Lewis had not won an F1 race, but was feeling almost sheer delight in racing. This season he has won a race already, yet has a sinking feeling that he may be perhaps unable to contest for the championship.
Kimi
Finally there is Kimi. Last year at this point he had won one race for Ferrari and was tied for the championship lead. But Kimi also knew the key to his win was the flexible floor design of the Ferrari which was banned after Melbourne, and the revised car was not as fast. He also knew they had wind tunnel problems, so the development of the Ferrari would suffer. He was not secure in his position with Ferrari, where Massa was the "insider" and Kimi the outsider. And Massa had won a race as well at this point last season, and Massa was comfortable not only with the team, but also with the Bridgestone tyres which Kimi was having trouble adjusting to. And finally, the Ferrari had been designed before Kimi had joined the team, so it was not set up close to suit his driving style. Kimi certainly felt happy to have been able to depart McLaren but was by no means certain he would become the master at Ferrari, inspite of what his outwardly confidence would suggest. The Italian sporting press was also fuelling rumours about the Massa-Raikkonen contest for number one status with the team. And there was the sceptre of Schumacher hanging around the paddock, such as Jean Todt bringing the mobile phone with Schumacher on the line, to Kimi when Kimi was about to step to the podium for his first win in Melbourne (and Kimi duly disconnected the call and did not want to talk with the former champ). Whose team was it, Kimi's, Massa's or perhaps still, Schumacher's?
This time around in 2008, Kimi is in the ultimate sweet spot. He is the reigning champ. He disposed the old champ (Alonso) who had driven the faster car last season. But now Kimi has the fastest car of the season, in fact the first time in his F1 career, Kimi knows he has the fastest car.
Last year this time Kimi was battling Massa for team leader status. Now wearing that Number 1 on his nosecone, there is no question, that this is Kimi's team. Massa is the supporting driver. They both know it and so does the whole team.
Kimi is comfortable with the Bridgestone tyres. The car was designed more to suit his driving style. For a race driver his tools are utmost to his liking. And Kimi has made it very clear, he does not need to be chaperoned by Schumacher; Kimi can win championships for Ferrari all by himself.
The change removing traction control was expected to expose strong and weak drivers. Certainly Massa is proven to be one who had benefitted from traction control. Kimi has adjusted very well to this new era, while Massa is one of the drivers most to have suffered.
Kimi has already won one race this season and this time he leads the championship. His truest rival is his own team-mate Massa, and on this team, more than any other, Kimi knows the team won't let Massa overshadow the reigning champion Ferrari driver. This is the best team to be in, if the closest rival for the championship is your team-mate.
Then Kimi looks at McLaren. The disappointment last season to observe, that after all those years when McLaren was not the fastest car, of course when he left, suddenly McLaren became the fastest car. Well, now that has passed. He was able to beat them in a slower car, it will be easier this season.
And Kimi thinking of Lewis? Not only will he have Heikki bleeding points off Lewis, but there are the BMW's contesting for podiums (and even perhaps the Williams on a good day). Lewis will have a much harder time to score 8 points or 6 points per race to keep up with Kimi in the championship this time, than last year when it was only a race between the two teams, McLaren and Ferrari. Kimi also can see that Lewis's incredible luck last year, when battling for position at the start of the race, or occasional race indidents, is now reversing, and when battling from the mid-field, Lewis is a mere mortal after all. Thus the true risk posed by Hamilton in his second season is significantly less than it was in 2007. And of Kovalainen, Kimi will feel even less threatened by Heikki than Lewis on that team, knowing McLaren very well, and seeing that Heikki is still chasing his first win.
And Kimi thinking of Alonso? Kimi can clearly see that this season Renault will not be able to overtake McLaren, BMW and Ferrari to claw himself back into contention for the championship. For this season at least, Alonso is already out of the picture.
What of the BMW boys? They are second (Heidfeld) and tied-for third (Kubica) in the championship, but this team has never won a race, far less a championship. So the intellect in Raikkonen knows that team is far from a true contender this season, they need to win a race first, before they start to consider the Championship. Yes, BMW can be a worthy rival this season, but with Ferrari's organization, discipline and competence, in a tight race, BMW is entering a level they have not yet been to. Again advantage Kimi.
He has said many times towards the end of his time at McLaren, that Kimi was not too happy, and felt he might quit racing soon. Now at Ferrari, he has said time and again, that he is superbly happy and feels like he was at home.
Kimi's been around the circuits for long enough to know any given weekend might go to one team or one driver rather than another. Luck plays a big part in race incidents, the pace car, rain, etc. And there are always the occasional technical issues in motor racing. Kimi also knows that the championship requires most of all consistency race in and race out, that he witnessed watching Schumacher win 5 in a row. He sees that when Kimi is starting from mid-field, he can race up to the podium and take valuable points. But now recently each of Alonso, Hamlton and Massa, when stuck in mid-field, are prone to errors, accidents, broken nose-cones, etc, demolishing chances for those valuable points.
More so than any of his rivals, Kimi knows what is the value of just one point at the end of the season, and will fight for every one that is available to him.
Last season he was hopeful of his switch of teams to Ferrari. Now he knows it was the right thing to do. Last season he battled a team-mate who is now subdued. Last season he struggled to learn new tyres, this time he knows them. Last season the car was not to his liking, and now it is. Last season he was in the second-fastest car, now its clear Ferrari is the fastest car. Last season the his strongest pre-season rival Alonso was in the fastest car. This season of his strongest pre-season rivals, Alonso is in a mid-field car, and even McLaren might be slower than the BMW and is not in Ferrari's class.
All his F1 career Kimi has been the underdog, having to scrape and fight for being within contention. He has rarely held a points lead for long in a season. The fact he twice went into the final race with a mathematical chance to win the championship, in an inferior car, was due to his consistency. Now he brings that consistency, and maturity, to the fastest car. He deservedly already leads the champhionship, but more importantly, he is already 35% ahead of his nearest "real" rival, Hamilton in points. If this pattern holds for the full season, Kimi would win the championship by a massive margin of 30 points - and thus clinch his second championship three races before the end of the season.
The mind of a champion. Three minds, three champions. There is an unhappy Alonso. There is an uncertain Hamilton. And there is a happy Raikkonen.
Monday, April 7, 2008
Bahrain. 3rd race, 3rd winner, bodes well for another exciting season
So. Bahrain done and dusted. Massa had perfect Sunday, from 2nd to win it.
As i thought, the BMW was lower on fuel, so Kubica's pole did not translate into a win. But their race pace was clearly faster than McLaren, so the win is probably not far.
But consider last year and now? After 3 races last year, we had 3 different winners - 2 for ferrari, 1 for mclaren, with the 2nd mclaren driver showing clear promise. Exactly the same now!
So this promises another epic season.
Except that now - the constructors championship is led by 3rd maker - BMW! So we are heading for 3-way team contest with 6 legitimate title contenders!
And how close and mixed they stand. Kimi first with 19 points. Heidfeld second, then the 3 tied hamilton, heikki and kubica, with massa 6th. This should become great season!
As i thought, the BMW was lower on fuel, so Kubica's pole did not translate into a win. But their race pace was clearly faster than McLaren, so the win is probably not far.
But consider last year and now? After 3 races last year, we had 3 different winners - 2 for ferrari, 1 for mclaren, with the 2nd mclaren driver showing clear promise. Exactly the same now!
So this promises another epic season.
Except that now - the constructors championship is led by 3rd maker - BMW! So we are heading for 3-way team contest with 6 legitimate title contenders!
And how close and mixed they stand. Kimi first with 19 points. Heidfeld second, then the 3 tied hamilton, heikki and kubica, with massa 6th. This should become great season!
Saturday, April 5, 2008
Guesstimating fuel laps for Bahrain
Wow, this is a surprise, Kubica on pole. What a great boost it would be for F1 if he actually won it as well - to have three first races with three different drivers winning - in three different cars. That would be awesome. And Kubica would be so deserving (as would BMW).
But I took a look at the Q2 times and compared with final Q3 positions, to try to guess how heavy or light the cars were and how far they would go in the race.
I think of the top 5 drivers, Massa is clearly the heaviest, he'll go 2 laps further than the others in the group. And also, Kubica seems 2 laps lighter than the other three. So my feeling is that the first to pit today in Bahrain will be Massa, then two laps later, Hamilton. A lap after that Kimi and Heikki, with Massa driving 2 laps longer still.
Lets see how well my armchair paddock spying has worked ha-ha..
And what of his chances (Kubica's). Well, if he manages to pull away - he'd need about a 4 sec window at least by the first pits to hold onto a lead, preferrably a few secs more. Plus he'd need plenty of luck in the start, stay out of trouble along the way in the race, and preferrably no pace cars to pull the pack to right behind him.
But its really shaping for a great start. Massa starting second (on the dirty side) is not known for great starts, Kimi (behind him in 4th) has often outstarted him, and Massa is prone to mistakes early in the race. Hamilton starting 3rd is known for lightning starts - and for very opportunitistic first corner moves to make up places when he isn't on pole. (Heikki hasn't a real pattern in a front-running car yet, so lets ignore him)
Hamilton on the clean side, should be able to race quickly to get alongside Massa, struggling on the dirty side of the track. These two could well be tangling with each other, even touching. And my bet is on Lewis getting past Massa. That would upset Massa who then could easily compound the problem with some hopelessly over-optimistic race moves - perhaps pushing him further back.
But Kimi, the old dog in this group - could well watch the squabble between Massa and Hamilton, and perhaps also squeeze past Massa in all the opening hassle.
Could make for a great start of the race. Can't wait.
But here's hoping Kubica is crowned the winner today in Bahrain.
But I took a look at the Q2 times and compared with final Q3 positions, to try to guess how heavy or light the cars were and how far they would go in the race.
I think of the top 5 drivers, Massa is clearly the heaviest, he'll go 2 laps further than the others in the group. And also, Kubica seems 2 laps lighter than the other three. So my feeling is that the first to pit today in Bahrain will be Massa, then two laps later, Hamilton. A lap after that Kimi and Heikki, with Massa driving 2 laps longer still.
Lets see how well my armchair paddock spying has worked ha-ha..
And what of his chances (Kubica's). Well, if he manages to pull away - he'd need about a 4 sec window at least by the first pits to hold onto a lead, preferrably a few secs more. Plus he'd need plenty of luck in the start, stay out of trouble along the way in the race, and preferrably no pace cars to pull the pack to right behind him.
But its really shaping for a great start. Massa starting second (on the dirty side) is not known for great starts, Kimi (behind him in 4th) has often outstarted him, and Massa is prone to mistakes early in the race. Hamilton starting 3rd is known for lightning starts - and for very opportunitistic first corner moves to make up places when he isn't on pole. (Heikki hasn't a real pattern in a front-running car yet, so lets ignore him)
Hamilton on the clean side, should be able to race quickly to get alongside Massa, struggling on the dirty side of the track. These two could well be tangling with each other, even touching. And my bet is on Lewis getting past Massa. That would upset Massa who then could easily compound the problem with some hopelessly over-optimistic race moves - perhaps pushing him further back.
But Kimi, the old dog in this group - could well watch the squabble between Massa and Hamilton, and perhaps also squeeze past Massa in all the opening hassle.
Could make for a great start of the race. Can't wait.
But here's hoping Kubica is crowned the winner today in Bahrain.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Malaysia Review, now tables turned
So the Malaysian GP is done and dusted. The Finn fan in me is of course ecstatic with two Finns on the podium and was very happy to see Robert Kubica also there.
But what of the race. First, McLaren. They certainly weren't as bad as the end results show, at third and fifth. Both McLarens were punished after qualifying and started the race at midfield, yet 15 laps into the race, as the first pit stops started, Hamilton had climbed up to 5th and Kovalainen to 7th. Out of that, Kovalainen ended up third and onto the podium. What happened to Hamilton was a botched pit stop which cost him 10 seconds directly, and further was hurt by bad traffic when he returned to the track. Before the pit stop Hamilton was 4 sec ahead of Kovalainen. Under "normal" conditions Hamilton would have easily finished ahead of Kovalainen, at the very least McLaren would have had 3rd and 4th places, but very likely, Hamilton's 4 second gap in his first pit stop would have put him ahead of all the traffic that also slowed Kovalainen down, and let Kubica get away. Hamilton, in a faster car, would have caught and probably passed Kubica by the second pit stops, thus it really should have been Hamilton 2nd and Kovalainen 4th. Considering both cars (and drivers) finished, that was their true pace. Hamilton was hurt by the pit stop.
But what of Massa then? This is the second time he threw the race away with a driver error. Very bad indeed. This time a totally unforced error, too much power from the turn, spinning the car and then beaching it. Zero points. And this was after Kimi had overtaken him fair and square on the first pit stops. When Massa saw he was not going to win (again), he lost his focus and made an unforced error. Very poor form. Especially for a driver for the Scuderia. This way Felipe will find himself soon shipped away from the Prancing Horse, possibly even during this season. (For the record, Massa was running 2nd when he spun out of the race).
Kimi - pretty well perfect drive, from second on the start, flawless race, taking over the lead from the first pit stops and then except for the second pit stop window, held the lead to the end.
Kubica. Very good smart drive. He was lucky, first Massa spinning away from him, then the McLaren pit stop taking Hamilton out of contention, and finally the remaining McLaren, Kovalainen, was stuck behind Button and Coulthard and falling so far behind as to not pose a threat to Robert in his BMW. A relatively easy race for him to 2nd place.
Heikki Kovalainen - very good drive from 9th to 3rd. With some luck, could have even made 2nd, but there was no way the McLaren was to catch the Ferrari(s) on this Sunday. Made just about the best he could.
Others worth mentioning?
Heidfeld in the other BMW was very unlucky at the start, fell back to 10th I think. Salvaged 3 points with a 6th place finish.
Webber, solid drive to 7th, 2 points.
Alonso, disappointing finish at 8th with the last point
Best of the rest, certainly Trulli in the Toyota, finishing 4th. He started 3rd (because the McLarens were relegated) and managed 4th (because Massa messed up, Hamilton's pit stop and Heidfeld's bad start) so there was luck in his drive, but a good driver needs also to be lucky. So yes, very good finish for Toyota, considering that they are not as fast as Ferrari, McLaren or BMW. 5 points for Trulli.
A good, exciting race. The lack of traction control seems to be doing a lot of good for better racing, that at least bodes well for an exciting season. But Felipe Massa, ouch. He needs to get his head together real fast or he may become the first driver not to finish the season without traction control...
Next race in Bahrain in 2 weeks. I'll do a separate posting about the form of the teams now that we have two full races to analyze and explore.. Stay tuned.
But what of the race. First, McLaren. They certainly weren't as bad as the end results show, at third and fifth. Both McLarens were punished after qualifying and started the race at midfield, yet 15 laps into the race, as the first pit stops started, Hamilton had climbed up to 5th and Kovalainen to 7th. Out of that, Kovalainen ended up third and onto the podium. What happened to Hamilton was a botched pit stop which cost him 10 seconds directly, and further was hurt by bad traffic when he returned to the track. Before the pit stop Hamilton was 4 sec ahead of Kovalainen. Under "normal" conditions Hamilton would have easily finished ahead of Kovalainen, at the very least McLaren would have had 3rd and 4th places, but very likely, Hamilton's 4 second gap in his first pit stop would have put him ahead of all the traffic that also slowed Kovalainen down, and let Kubica get away. Hamilton, in a faster car, would have caught and probably passed Kubica by the second pit stops, thus it really should have been Hamilton 2nd and Kovalainen 4th. Considering both cars (and drivers) finished, that was their true pace. Hamilton was hurt by the pit stop.
But what of Massa then? This is the second time he threw the race away with a driver error. Very bad indeed. This time a totally unforced error, too much power from the turn, spinning the car and then beaching it. Zero points. And this was after Kimi had overtaken him fair and square on the first pit stops. When Massa saw he was not going to win (again), he lost his focus and made an unforced error. Very poor form. Especially for a driver for the Scuderia. This way Felipe will find himself soon shipped away from the Prancing Horse, possibly even during this season. (For the record, Massa was running 2nd when he spun out of the race).
Kimi - pretty well perfect drive, from second on the start, flawless race, taking over the lead from the first pit stops and then except for the second pit stop window, held the lead to the end.
Kubica. Very good smart drive. He was lucky, first Massa spinning away from him, then the McLaren pit stop taking Hamilton out of contention, and finally the remaining McLaren, Kovalainen, was stuck behind Button and Coulthard and falling so far behind as to not pose a threat to Robert in his BMW. A relatively easy race for him to 2nd place.
Heikki Kovalainen - very good drive from 9th to 3rd. With some luck, could have even made 2nd, but there was no way the McLaren was to catch the Ferrari(s) on this Sunday. Made just about the best he could.
Others worth mentioning?
Heidfeld in the other BMW was very unlucky at the start, fell back to 10th I think. Salvaged 3 points with a 6th place finish.
Webber, solid drive to 7th, 2 points.
Alonso, disappointing finish at 8th with the last point
Best of the rest, certainly Trulli in the Toyota, finishing 4th. He started 3rd (because the McLarens were relegated) and managed 4th (because Massa messed up, Hamilton's pit stop and Heidfeld's bad start) so there was luck in his drive, but a good driver needs also to be lucky. So yes, very good finish for Toyota, considering that they are not as fast as Ferrari, McLaren or BMW. 5 points for Trulli.
A good, exciting race. The lack of traction control seems to be doing a lot of good for better racing, that at least bodes well for an exciting season. But Felipe Massa, ouch. He needs to get his head together real fast or he may become the first driver not to finish the season without traction control...
Next race in Bahrain in 2 weeks. I'll do a separate posting about the form of the teams now that we have two full races to analyze and explore.. Stay tuned.
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Australian GP review and thoughts
Well, it was an eventful race, wasn't it. And pretty near the worst kind of start for Ferrari. And near best possible start for McLaren, in particular for Lewis Hamilton.
But lets dig deeper.
Lewis Hamilton. Had a perfect weekend. Pole position, fastest lap (I think, I haven't seen the stats yet) and easy cruise to win. Managed to avoid most of the hassles with the pace car that messed up so many others including his team mate Heikki Kovalainen. Great race, Lewis. You earned the 10 points and a winner needs to be lucky. Perfect start to the season.
So Heikki? The qualifying could have been better but still starting on the second row was not bad. Then the race, he was right with it at the front, until unfortunate timing with his pit stop and a pace car. Was heading for a podium now that was lost. Still he at least brought the car to the finish. (this also means the McLaren is a solid and fast car to start the season)
Which is not what can be said of the Prancing Horse. Ferrari had horrible reliability issues, from Kimi's fuel pump in the qualifying to his engine dying at the race. And Massa lost his engine in the race. Come on, Ferrari. This is not the right time to produce unreliable cars! But yes, Kimi. So he started from 15th. Massa proved the car was good enough to be a front runner. So Kimi started to pass cars and by the time of his pit stops, Kimi had fought himself to third place.
As Kimi was on a one-stopper strategy, and his front-running rivals were two-stopping, at that point - when Kimi wanted to pit - he had in effect fought himself to the podium, and was very realistically fighting for the win. But then he had his major bit of bad luck with the pace car. As he could not enter the pits, with dead tyres, he was stuck going around the track several more times behind the pace car, with dead tyres now having no grip and losing whatever little bit of heat they might have held, Kimi then on the re-start ended driving off the track. Very luckily he avoided a crash, and returned - but due to the pace car situation, now all remaining cars had shot past him - this would never happen in normal race conditions if a driver overshoots a curve, he'd lose one maybe two places. Now Kimi went from third to I think 11th, anyway, dead-last in the queue. He must have been devastated.
Still, he fought back. Had his pit stop, fresh tyres, fought himself into about 5th or so, until again his tyres and now probably also engine (and pretty messed up car overall) were letting him down. So he finished 9th, but because Barrichello was disqualified, he picked up one point for 8th finish.
Yes, a pitiful performance, with several spectacular spins and driver errors - but I'm totally willing to forgive these for his brave fighting to overtake and get up the order, first from 15th to 3rd, and then again from 11th to 5th. His 8th place finish is not in any way a fair haul of points for what he did on Sunday.
But it does mean, that Ferrari do have a fast car. And a nimble car. And it suits Kimi's driving style. But he is now 9 points behind Hamilton. Not the best way to start the season. Expect Kimi to be very fired up for Malaysia.
Meanwhile Massa? Felipe, Felipe? What happened. You were Ferrari's front runner. You should have finished well ahead of Kimi, essentially in the same car. Certainly, where you start 4th and Kimi starts 15th, when the race is ten laps in, we'd expect the car running 6th to be you and the car running 20th to be Kimi, not the other way around !!
I think Massa showed again that he is prone to errors out of pressure. The spin on the first lap by Massa was not caused by any contact with any other driver. That was just driver error on new tyres at the start of the race, in relatively clear field position (not the heavily over-congesed mid-field); in short an un-forced error. Bad move Massa. Very bad. But his engine did break already at half distance so we never know if he might have had more luck in the roulette of the pace cars of this peculiar race.
Now then BMW? I wrote in my last prediction, that I expected BMW had been going backwards during the winter. Now we have Heidfeld finishing second and Kubica was running very well earlier in the race. What happened? It seems that BMW has been fooling the press and pundits, by "sandbagging" or hiding their true speed in the winter trials. Maybe they carried some extra weight in the car, to not reveal just how fast they were. Ha-ha, pretty clever... BMW seems very strong and will challenge McLaren and Ferrari for the podiums each race. I think they'll be winning their first race this season - and inspite of this race, I still think Kubica is the better driver, he'll be most likely the one to do it (with a bit more luck).
Then Williams. This team seems to be true to the pre-season form, taken giant steps ahead during the pre-season. Certainly the podium was a lot of luck with both Ferrari's out and Kovalainen behind them and only one BMW finishing the race, but still, Williams was clearly faster than Renault or the Red Bull. Happy to see Nico up there - and obviously Lewis and Nico are best friends, happy too to see such friendship among athletes who are technically rivals.
Alonso, drove a solid drive to fourth, well in excess of what the Renault really was able to do. Also Nakajima was clearly well behind his team mate in the other Williams. They picked their points simply because the rest of the field had not finished as they normally would do. The bit of particular joy for me was Toro Rosso and Sebastian Bourdais. The Toro Rosso was strong in pre-season and while its quite a long-shot for them to be in the points, happy they scored some on Sunday.
A few other observations. Nelsinho Piquet Jr was to me a big disappointment all through the weekend. I hope this is just rookie nerves, and he'll settle down much like Heikki did last year (he also started horribly badly in Australia).
I would have really wanted to see Barrichello actually win those points he had which he lost with the disqualifications. He is driving a dog of a car in the Honda, he's also that old, that he won't have many races left - maybe this season, but even one more season is starting to ask quite a lot. So these may have been his last legitimate chances for points. Shame about that.
Seven cars finished. I don't remember the race I saw that happen before ( there was once I have seen very long ago when there were less cars to physically finish than who won points, ie points were given to at least one car that did not finish) but its been a very long time.
Now to Malaysia. This race is more "normal" as a measure of team performance (Australia so often is peculiar and not really indicative)
Oh, and if you believe in omens, the winner of Australia tends to win the season. Bodes very well for Lewis Hamilton and McLaren. Still, I am sure Kimi is more happy to be in the Ferrari, even with broken fuel pump and engine, than being back at the Silver Arrows. Expect Kimi to be in top form in Kuala Lumpur...
But lets dig deeper.
Lewis Hamilton. Had a perfect weekend. Pole position, fastest lap (I think, I haven't seen the stats yet) and easy cruise to win. Managed to avoid most of the hassles with the pace car that messed up so many others including his team mate Heikki Kovalainen. Great race, Lewis. You earned the 10 points and a winner needs to be lucky. Perfect start to the season.
So Heikki? The qualifying could have been better but still starting on the second row was not bad. Then the race, he was right with it at the front, until unfortunate timing with his pit stop and a pace car. Was heading for a podium now that was lost. Still he at least brought the car to the finish. (this also means the McLaren is a solid and fast car to start the season)
Which is not what can be said of the Prancing Horse. Ferrari had horrible reliability issues, from Kimi's fuel pump in the qualifying to his engine dying at the race. And Massa lost his engine in the race. Come on, Ferrari. This is not the right time to produce unreliable cars! But yes, Kimi. So he started from 15th. Massa proved the car was good enough to be a front runner. So Kimi started to pass cars and by the time of his pit stops, Kimi had fought himself to third place.
As Kimi was on a one-stopper strategy, and his front-running rivals were two-stopping, at that point - when Kimi wanted to pit - he had in effect fought himself to the podium, and was very realistically fighting for the win. But then he had his major bit of bad luck with the pace car. As he could not enter the pits, with dead tyres, he was stuck going around the track several more times behind the pace car, with dead tyres now having no grip and losing whatever little bit of heat they might have held, Kimi then on the re-start ended driving off the track. Very luckily he avoided a crash, and returned - but due to the pace car situation, now all remaining cars had shot past him - this would never happen in normal race conditions if a driver overshoots a curve, he'd lose one maybe two places. Now Kimi went from third to I think 11th, anyway, dead-last in the queue. He must have been devastated.
Still, he fought back. Had his pit stop, fresh tyres, fought himself into about 5th or so, until again his tyres and now probably also engine (and pretty messed up car overall) were letting him down. So he finished 9th, but because Barrichello was disqualified, he picked up one point for 8th finish.
Yes, a pitiful performance, with several spectacular spins and driver errors - but I'm totally willing to forgive these for his brave fighting to overtake and get up the order, first from 15th to 3rd, and then again from 11th to 5th. His 8th place finish is not in any way a fair haul of points for what he did on Sunday.
But it does mean, that Ferrari do have a fast car. And a nimble car. And it suits Kimi's driving style. But he is now 9 points behind Hamilton. Not the best way to start the season. Expect Kimi to be very fired up for Malaysia.
Meanwhile Massa? Felipe, Felipe? What happened. You were Ferrari's front runner. You should have finished well ahead of Kimi, essentially in the same car. Certainly, where you start 4th and Kimi starts 15th, when the race is ten laps in, we'd expect the car running 6th to be you and the car running 20th to be Kimi, not the other way around !!
I think Massa showed again that he is prone to errors out of pressure. The spin on the first lap by Massa was not caused by any contact with any other driver. That was just driver error on new tyres at the start of the race, in relatively clear field position (not the heavily over-congesed mid-field); in short an un-forced error. Bad move Massa. Very bad. But his engine did break already at half distance so we never know if he might have had more luck in the roulette of the pace cars of this peculiar race.
Now then BMW? I wrote in my last prediction, that I expected BMW had been going backwards during the winter. Now we have Heidfeld finishing second and Kubica was running very well earlier in the race. What happened? It seems that BMW has been fooling the press and pundits, by "sandbagging" or hiding their true speed in the winter trials. Maybe they carried some extra weight in the car, to not reveal just how fast they were. Ha-ha, pretty clever... BMW seems very strong and will challenge McLaren and Ferrari for the podiums each race. I think they'll be winning their first race this season - and inspite of this race, I still think Kubica is the better driver, he'll be most likely the one to do it (with a bit more luck).
Then Williams. This team seems to be true to the pre-season form, taken giant steps ahead during the pre-season. Certainly the podium was a lot of luck with both Ferrari's out and Kovalainen behind them and only one BMW finishing the race, but still, Williams was clearly faster than Renault or the Red Bull. Happy to see Nico up there - and obviously Lewis and Nico are best friends, happy too to see such friendship among athletes who are technically rivals.
Alonso, drove a solid drive to fourth, well in excess of what the Renault really was able to do. Also Nakajima was clearly well behind his team mate in the other Williams. They picked their points simply because the rest of the field had not finished as they normally would do. The bit of particular joy for me was Toro Rosso and Sebastian Bourdais. The Toro Rosso was strong in pre-season and while its quite a long-shot for them to be in the points, happy they scored some on Sunday.
A few other observations. Nelsinho Piquet Jr was to me a big disappointment all through the weekend. I hope this is just rookie nerves, and he'll settle down much like Heikki did last year (he also started horribly badly in Australia).
I would have really wanted to see Barrichello actually win those points he had which he lost with the disqualifications. He is driving a dog of a car in the Honda, he's also that old, that he won't have many races left - maybe this season, but even one more season is starting to ask quite a lot. So these may have been his last legitimate chances for points. Shame about that.
Seven cars finished. I don't remember the race I saw that happen before ( there was once I have seen very long ago when there were less cars to physically finish than who won points, ie points were given to at least one car that did not finish) but its been a very long time.
Now to Malaysia. This race is more "normal" as a measure of team performance (Australia so often is peculiar and not really indicative)
Oh, and if you believe in omens, the winner of Australia tends to win the season. Bodes very well for Lewis Hamilton and McLaren. Still, I am sure Kimi is more happy to be in the Ferrari, even with broken fuel pump and engine, than being back at the Silver Arrows. Expect Kimi to be in top form in Kuala Lumpur...
Monday, March 10, 2008
On the Past, Present and Future Champions racing today
So lets talk Alonso, Raikkonen and Hamilton. The past champion, the current champion, and very likely the next (new) champion (whether this season or another very soon).
Last season, the closest season ever, with first and third place finisher in the championship separated by one point. One point between first and third. And so tight, the season was tied at 8 races with 2 wins each for four drivers; at 12 races, 3 wins for each of the four drivers, and at 15 races out of 17, still three drivers with the same number of wins, four each. Those three went into the final each having a chance to win the championship - and during that final race in Brazil, at different times of the race, if the race had been halted, a different driver would have won the championship.
What a season. The most competitive F1 season ever. And so exciting to follow.
Now, into 2008. The ruling champion Kimi Raikkonen remains with Ferrari to try for two-in-a-row. His nearest challeger, Lewis Hamilton, remains with McLaren who had the fastest car last season. And the deposed 2-time champion, Fernando Alonso, returns to Renault where he won twice in a row only a little over a year ago. Could it not be better for another legendary season of racing?
Yes and no. Lets look into the lives of these three drivers.
KIMI
Kimi at Ferrari. Usually when a race driver wins his first race, he gains confidence and often starts a set of wins (but there are the exceptions like Jenson Button). Also often - not always - winning the championship gives an extra boost of confidence.
Kimi had grown very frustrated at McLaren, in particular with their often fast but too unreliable cars. He had wanted to leave McLaren - and he envied Michael Schumacher's incredibly strong reliability at Ferrari - certainly the most reliable car of the decade of the 2000s (I can still remember the 1980s and 1990s when Ferraris were the LEAST reliable cars). Now Kimi is with that Ferrari team. They gave him a fast and reliable car (tied for second most reliable, and ironically McLaren was the most reliable car this past season). Kimi fought through the season to win his championship.
During the first half of last season Kimi was facing a lot of heat from his partner driver at Ferrari, Felipe Massa. Felipe led Kimi in points for a good part of the season and there were rumours that Felipe might gain the top driver position. Kimi fought on and took the championship. Now he has the Number 1 on his car and there is no question, Kimi Raikkonen is Ferrari's number 1 driver.
He is happy, on a team that is now focusing on him. He has finally gotten that very nasty monkey on his back (he twice lost the championship in the final race of the season). Kimi is very set. And where Massa had been a serious challenger last season, this season if Kimi drives well, there is no risk of Massa outperforming him. Last season it was Massa who was the established driver who knew the Ferrari team. Now Massa doesn't even have that advantage.
Also early last season there were rumours that the technical staff at Ferrari were hoping more input similar to what Michael Schumacher had given when he drove for Ferrari. Kimi doesn't go into that level of detail. But the team adjusted to Kimi's way. Now they know. From the start of the season, this is Kimi's team, and they now know from the start, how to get the maximum technical output from Kimi to help develop the car. And pre-season testing suggests it is a very fast car once again, making all at the Prancing Horse feel very enthusiastic for the new season.
As to Felipe. He had his one big chance last season to steal the number one driver status after Michael Schumacher had retired and as Kimi was clearly struggling early with Ferrari. Massa took 3 wins. That was one more than in his last season against Michael Schumacher. But 3 wins was not enough in 2007 to become Ferrari's top driver when Kimi took 6 wins. That was Felipe's chance. Now Kimi is clearly established as the top driver and Felipe knows in his heart, that he is relegated to the support driver role at Ferrari. How will this affect him? I think he can take it for one or two seasons, but it will eat him up and he will probably eventually want to change teams.
But for 2008 this is a team that is very well coming together around the champion. A good time to be named Raikkonen in Ferrari Red...
LEWIS
Lewis Hamilton had a cinderella season last season. But the McLaren team lost increasingly its focus with two disasters. One was the paranoid behaviour of Fernando Alonso, who felt he was not being treated as he felt he should as the reigning two-time champion, and later in the season, even felt he was not being treated as an equal (this I find ludicrous, as McLaren is by every bit of evidence the most fairly even team of any at F1 - meticulously giving both drivers always an even shake, and Alonso knew this full well, as he's been a McLaren fan from his youth). The other was the growing focus on the Spy Gate with Ferrari intellectual property at McLaren. So the team had produced the best car of the season for Hamilton and Alonso, but the team top management was ever more focusing on the two problems, rather than maximising the car and team performance at race weekends. Inspite of this Lewis finishes with four wins and one point behind Kimi in the champhionship. Wow what a season.
So now Alonso has left for Renault, and Lewis inherits the "After Alonso" ie Finnish driver Heikki Kovalainen who apparently has his career set in stone to follow Alonso. Last season Lewis was the rookie and both he and Alonso were new to McLaren's F1 race team. Now Lewis is the insider while Heikki is the new guy. Lewis has an inherent advantage already because of this. Plus Lewis has four wins, Heikki has never won a Grand Prix yet. Lewis should be much less threatened by internal politics this season. The team should have no big distractions, and thus give far better support to Lewis (and Heikki) during the season.
And Lewis was a rookie driver last season. He had never driven on most of the F1 circuits. Now he returns to most of the circuits knowing the race track. He is young, he is learning. Seems like everything is going better for Lewis Hamilton. Four wins last season? He should do more this season. If the McLaren is anything as good as pre-season testing suggested, Lewis will be a fixture there on the podiums again all through the season.
So what of Heikki Kovalainen? Well, he drove a good midfield car last season at Renault, against a partner who had won several races in his past. Heikki clearly outdistanced Giancarlo Fisichella and finished with almost 50% more points than his far more experienced partner. Now Heikki finds himself joining McLaren who had the fastest - and most reliable - car last season. Renault is a big team with a good budget, but McLaren is a bigger and wealthier team. At Renault he was the first Finnish driver. At McLaren Ron Dennis has worked with all three Finnish World Champions, Keke Rosberg, Mika Hakkinen and Kimi Raikkonen. There has been a Finnish driver on McLaren for something like 15 years straight. This will all help Heikki smile very widely.
And of these two young lions - both Lewis Hamilton and Heikki Kovalainen were rookies last season - they both will appreciate it that McLaren truly gives them an equal chance. Heikki knows full well that had he stayed with Renault, he would have been forced to take the support driver role with Alonso returning there. Not at McLaren.
Heikki finished second in Japan (in his Renault, behind the McLaren of Hamilton ahead of the Ferrari of Raikkonen). He is a winner waiting to happen. A race winner certainly this season. Perhaps even a championship winner eventually. But for Lewis Hamilton's brilliance, I don't see Heikki taking a championship before Lewis gets his, barring some accident or such disasters in their careers.
ALONSO
So Fernando at Renault. The only two-time champion still racing in F1, returning to the team where he won both his championships. This should be a fairy tale. But there are very serious doubts about this season and pairing. First, Fernando had wanted to leave Renault. He had been unhappy at Renault even when he won his second championship in 2006 and was eager to join McLaren, a team he had idolized since being a child. Now the McLaren fantasy has been crushed by reality, but it is telling what Alonso did NOT say when he was searching for a team after McLaren. Renault said immediately that they wanted Alonso back. He was very non-committal and suggested he preferred other teams. This is not a love-affair. Alonso ended back at Renault, because he had to go there, to have a decent car for the season. He did not go back to Renault because he wanted to return there.
Meanwhile, Renault was clearly the best car in 2006. But in 2007 it was not even the third best car (McLaren, Ferrari and BMW clearly better than the Renault all year; my analysis puts even Williams slightly ahead of Renault, during the toughest part of the year when it most counted). Alonso left the team when it was the champ. Now he returns to the team when its struggling to remain as a mid-field contender.
Now, Renault is very competent and competitive. They have not had major technical staff changes. And they are particularly motivated to deliver a contender car for Alonso. But they took a big step back last season. It is very difficult to climb back to the front - look at Williams and how much it has struggled the past ten years since its last championship. I think it is inevitable that Renault won't be the fastest - nor the most reliable - car this season. Perhaps the margin is not big, but it might be considerable. In any case, the top driver that Alonso is, and having driven the past three years in the best car of the season, he will immediately know how much worse the new Renault is, compared to the top cars this season.
That will sting really badly. He spoiled his chances with his dream team, McLaren, who will almost certainly have a faster car this season than Renault. Then Alonso has to just take it, and drive the mid-field performance car that Renault is likely to be. The pre-season testing suggests this to be true as well. So he has to return to a team he had wanted to leave, and to make matters worse, that team is not as competitive this season as it was when he last was there.
Alonso's character will be tested very much this season by these conditions. At least he has Flavio Briatore as the team principle who understands Fernando very well and can communicate with him in ways that Ron Dennis at McLaren could not. That should help.
But what of his driver partner? Nelson Piquet Jr is the son of three-time world champ, Nelson Piquet. This is his rookie season. But this has all the makings of another Alonso-Hamilton personality disaster. Nelsinho is reputed to be very quick in the junior series where he battled some of the current young drivers. And as a fiery Brazilian personality, expect Piquet to bring his amount of emotion and passion to the team. It could very quickly develop into those political squabbles that Alonso had with Hamilton at McLaren.
But consider Piquet Jr. This is his first chance at F1. He's seen Nico Rosberg, Heikki Kovalainen and Lewis Hamilton all do well here. Piquet joins to a midfield team, not struggling with a backmarker team like Anthony Davidson on Super Aguri. So Piquet has nothing to lose. He'll drive his heart out. He has a father to support him who understands that these kinds of opportunities do not come easily, so he will also make the most of it.
So imagine Alonso not happy with his car on a given circuit, but Piquet flying - this is very likely going to happen at least some times this season, where a car and circuit suits Piquet more than Alonso. Then in the race Piquet finishes ahead of Alonso. How quickly will Alonso start to complain that Piquet is getting favoured treatment.
The signs are bad for Alonso for 2008. BMW may well be a faster car than Renault, Ferrari and McLaren almost certainly are faster. Alonso will be struggling to get onto the lowest step of the podium, while Kimi and Lewis will be featured on the top step most of the season. It will sting.
WHO AGAINST WHOM
Personally, I would love a three-way race in three different cars, Kimi in the Red, Lewis in the Silver and Fernando in the blue/yellow. But I honestly don't see that as being this season. Early on it is likely to be more a three way race between Kimi, Lewis and Felipe Massa in the second Ferrari. Hopefully Heikki Kovalainen will soon climb into that contest. But I really do expect Nick Heidfeld and perhaps Robert Kubica at BMW to be more of regular rivals to McLarens and Ferraris, than Alonso with Renault. And there is a strong chance that one of the other pretenders turns into the surprise contender this season -Williams, Red Bull, Toyota or Honda.
Of course it is also quite possible that the Renault this season is far better than last season. That the team is more focused to develop the car, and that it turns into a championship challenger by mid-season. For Alonso's sake that would be tremendous. But personally, I don't expect Renaults to feature much among the winners this season. And it will be interesting to monitor how Alonso will take it if that happens.
Last season, the closest season ever, with first and third place finisher in the championship separated by one point. One point between first and third. And so tight, the season was tied at 8 races with 2 wins each for four drivers; at 12 races, 3 wins for each of the four drivers, and at 15 races out of 17, still three drivers with the same number of wins, four each. Those three went into the final each having a chance to win the championship - and during that final race in Brazil, at different times of the race, if the race had been halted, a different driver would have won the championship.
What a season. The most competitive F1 season ever. And so exciting to follow.
Now, into 2008. The ruling champion Kimi Raikkonen remains with Ferrari to try for two-in-a-row. His nearest challeger, Lewis Hamilton, remains with McLaren who had the fastest car last season. And the deposed 2-time champion, Fernando Alonso, returns to Renault where he won twice in a row only a little over a year ago. Could it not be better for another legendary season of racing?
Yes and no. Lets look into the lives of these three drivers.
KIMI
Kimi at Ferrari. Usually when a race driver wins his first race, he gains confidence and often starts a set of wins (but there are the exceptions like Jenson Button). Also often - not always - winning the championship gives an extra boost of confidence.
Kimi had grown very frustrated at McLaren, in particular with their often fast but too unreliable cars. He had wanted to leave McLaren - and he envied Michael Schumacher's incredibly strong reliability at Ferrari - certainly the most reliable car of the decade of the 2000s (I can still remember the 1980s and 1990s when Ferraris were the LEAST reliable cars). Now Kimi is with that Ferrari team. They gave him a fast and reliable car (tied for second most reliable, and ironically McLaren was the most reliable car this past season). Kimi fought through the season to win his championship.
During the first half of last season Kimi was facing a lot of heat from his partner driver at Ferrari, Felipe Massa. Felipe led Kimi in points for a good part of the season and there were rumours that Felipe might gain the top driver position. Kimi fought on and took the championship. Now he has the Number 1 on his car and there is no question, Kimi Raikkonen is Ferrari's number 1 driver.
He is happy, on a team that is now focusing on him. He has finally gotten that very nasty monkey on his back (he twice lost the championship in the final race of the season). Kimi is very set. And where Massa had been a serious challenger last season, this season if Kimi drives well, there is no risk of Massa outperforming him. Last season it was Massa who was the established driver who knew the Ferrari team. Now Massa doesn't even have that advantage.
Also early last season there were rumours that the technical staff at Ferrari were hoping more input similar to what Michael Schumacher had given when he drove for Ferrari. Kimi doesn't go into that level of detail. But the team adjusted to Kimi's way. Now they know. From the start of the season, this is Kimi's team, and they now know from the start, how to get the maximum technical output from Kimi to help develop the car. And pre-season testing suggests it is a very fast car once again, making all at the Prancing Horse feel very enthusiastic for the new season.
As to Felipe. He had his one big chance last season to steal the number one driver status after Michael Schumacher had retired and as Kimi was clearly struggling early with Ferrari. Massa took 3 wins. That was one more than in his last season against Michael Schumacher. But 3 wins was not enough in 2007 to become Ferrari's top driver when Kimi took 6 wins. That was Felipe's chance. Now Kimi is clearly established as the top driver and Felipe knows in his heart, that he is relegated to the support driver role at Ferrari. How will this affect him? I think he can take it for one or two seasons, but it will eat him up and he will probably eventually want to change teams.
But for 2008 this is a team that is very well coming together around the champion. A good time to be named Raikkonen in Ferrari Red...
LEWIS
Lewis Hamilton had a cinderella season last season. But the McLaren team lost increasingly its focus with two disasters. One was the paranoid behaviour of Fernando Alonso, who felt he was not being treated as he felt he should as the reigning two-time champion, and later in the season, even felt he was not being treated as an equal (this I find ludicrous, as McLaren is by every bit of evidence the most fairly even team of any at F1 - meticulously giving both drivers always an even shake, and Alonso knew this full well, as he's been a McLaren fan from his youth). The other was the growing focus on the Spy Gate with Ferrari intellectual property at McLaren. So the team had produced the best car of the season for Hamilton and Alonso, but the team top management was ever more focusing on the two problems, rather than maximising the car and team performance at race weekends. Inspite of this Lewis finishes with four wins and one point behind Kimi in the champhionship. Wow what a season.
So now Alonso has left for Renault, and Lewis inherits the "After Alonso" ie Finnish driver Heikki Kovalainen who apparently has his career set in stone to follow Alonso. Last season Lewis was the rookie and both he and Alonso were new to McLaren's F1 race team. Now Lewis is the insider while Heikki is the new guy. Lewis has an inherent advantage already because of this. Plus Lewis has four wins, Heikki has never won a Grand Prix yet. Lewis should be much less threatened by internal politics this season. The team should have no big distractions, and thus give far better support to Lewis (and Heikki) during the season.
And Lewis was a rookie driver last season. He had never driven on most of the F1 circuits. Now he returns to most of the circuits knowing the race track. He is young, he is learning. Seems like everything is going better for Lewis Hamilton. Four wins last season? He should do more this season. If the McLaren is anything as good as pre-season testing suggested, Lewis will be a fixture there on the podiums again all through the season.
So what of Heikki Kovalainen? Well, he drove a good midfield car last season at Renault, against a partner who had won several races in his past. Heikki clearly outdistanced Giancarlo Fisichella and finished with almost 50% more points than his far more experienced partner. Now Heikki finds himself joining McLaren who had the fastest - and most reliable - car last season. Renault is a big team with a good budget, but McLaren is a bigger and wealthier team. At Renault he was the first Finnish driver. At McLaren Ron Dennis has worked with all three Finnish World Champions, Keke Rosberg, Mika Hakkinen and Kimi Raikkonen. There has been a Finnish driver on McLaren for something like 15 years straight. This will all help Heikki smile very widely.
And of these two young lions - both Lewis Hamilton and Heikki Kovalainen were rookies last season - they both will appreciate it that McLaren truly gives them an equal chance. Heikki knows full well that had he stayed with Renault, he would have been forced to take the support driver role with Alonso returning there. Not at McLaren.
Heikki finished second in Japan (in his Renault, behind the McLaren of Hamilton ahead of the Ferrari of Raikkonen). He is a winner waiting to happen. A race winner certainly this season. Perhaps even a championship winner eventually. But for Lewis Hamilton's brilliance, I don't see Heikki taking a championship before Lewis gets his, barring some accident or such disasters in their careers.
ALONSO
So Fernando at Renault. The only two-time champion still racing in F1, returning to the team where he won both his championships. This should be a fairy tale. But there are very serious doubts about this season and pairing. First, Fernando had wanted to leave Renault. He had been unhappy at Renault even when he won his second championship in 2006 and was eager to join McLaren, a team he had idolized since being a child. Now the McLaren fantasy has been crushed by reality, but it is telling what Alonso did NOT say when he was searching for a team after McLaren. Renault said immediately that they wanted Alonso back. He was very non-committal and suggested he preferred other teams. This is not a love-affair. Alonso ended back at Renault, because he had to go there, to have a decent car for the season. He did not go back to Renault because he wanted to return there.
Meanwhile, Renault was clearly the best car in 2006. But in 2007 it was not even the third best car (McLaren, Ferrari and BMW clearly better than the Renault all year; my analysis puts even Williams slightly ahead of Renault, during the toughest part of the year when it most counted). Alonso left the team when it was the champ. Now he returns to the team when its struggling to remain as a mid-field contender.
Now, Renault is very competent and competitive. They have not had major technical staff changes. And they are particularly motivated to deliver a contender car for Alonso. But they took a big step back last season. It is very difficult to climb back to the front - look at Williams and how much it has struggled the past ten years since its last championship. I think it is inevitable that Renault won't be the fastest - nor the most reliable - car this season. Perhaps the margin is not big, but it might be considerable. In any case, the top driver that Alonso is, and having driven the past three years in the best car of the season, he will immediately know how much worse the new Renault is, compared to the top cars this season.
That will sting really badly. He spoiled his chances with his dream team, McLaren, who will almost certainly have a faster car this season than Renault. Then Alonso has to just take it, and drive the mid-field performance car that Renault is likely to be. The pre-season testing suggests this to be true as well. So he has to return to a team he had wanted to leave, and to make matters worse, that team is not as competitive this season as it was when he last was there.
Alonso's character will be tested very much this season by these conditions. At least he has Flavio Briatore as the team principle who understands Fernando very well and can communicate with him in ways that Ron Dennis at McLaren could not. That should help.
But what of his driver partner? Nelson Piquet Jr is the son of three-time world champ, Nelson Piquet. This is his rookie season. But this has all the makings of another Alonso-Hamilton personality disaster. Nelsinho is reputed to be very quick in the junior series where he battled some of the current young drivers. And as a fiery Brazilian personality, expect Piquet to bring his amount of emotion and passion to the team. It could very quickly develop into those political squabbles that Alonso had with Hamilton at McLaren.
But consider Piquet Jr. This is his first chance at F1. He's seen Nico Rosberg, Heikki Kovalainen and Lewis Hamilton all do well here. Piquet joins to a midfield team, not struggling with a backmarker team like Anthony Davidson on Super Aguri. So Piquet has nothing to lose. He'll drive his heart out. He has a father to support him who understands that these kinds of opportunities do not come easily, so he will also make the most of it.
So imagine Alonso not happy with his car on a given circuit, but Piquet flying - this is very likely going to happen at least some times this season, where a car and circuit suits Piquet more than Alonso. Then in the race Piquet finishes ahead of Alonso. How quickly will Alonso start to complain that Piquet is getting favoured treatment.
The signs are bad for Alonso for 2008. BMW may well be a faster car than Renault, Ferrari and McLaren almost certainly are faster. Alonso will be struggling to get onto the lowest step of the podium, while Kimi and Lewis will be featured on the top step most of the season. It will sting.
WHO AGAINST WHOM
Personally, I would love a three-way race in three different cars, Kimi in the Red, Lewis in the Silver and Fernando in the blue/yellow. But I honestly don't see that as being this season. Early on it is likely to be more a three way race between Kimi, Lewis and Felipe Massa in the second Ferrari. Hopefully Heikki Kovalainen will soon climb into that contest. But I really do expect Nick Heidfeld and perhaps Robert Kubica at BMW to be more of regular rivals to McLarens and Ferraris, than Alonso with Renault. And there is a strong chance that one of the other pretenders turns into the surprise contender this season -Williams, Red Bull, Toyota or Honda.
Of course it is also quite possible that the Renault this season is far better than last season. That the team is more focused to develop the car, and that it turns into a championship challenger by mid-season. For Alonso's sake that would be tremendous. But personally, I don't expect Renaults to feature much among the winners this season. And it will be interesting to monitor how Alonso will take it if that happens.
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