Monday, September 29, 2008

Doing the math: Lewis holds keys to his championship

So, three races to go. The race is still mathematically alive for Robert Kubica, Kimi Raikkonen and Nick Heidfeld, but statistically they are already out of it. For example Kimi would need to win all three remaining races, and if Lewis scores even one point in every remaining race (ie finishes 8th), Lewis would tie Kimi, but with more wins, Lewis would win.

So great effort Kimi, Robert and Nick; but you are statistically eliminated already. And Heikki Kovalainen, he is mathematically eliminated. Even if he won the remaining 3 races, and Lewis scored no points, Lewis would finish ahead of Heikki, so Heikki cannot win the championship anymore this season.

So it comes down to Felipe Massa or Lewis Hamilton. And seven points between them. Yes, last year, Lewis was able to throw it all away with a lead of 17 points, but that was with his team mate racing him to the last race (now Heikki is clearly in supporting role, as he is mathematically eliminates) and Massa has not shown the steel and dedication race-in and race-out as Kimi did last season.

In any case, Lewis has the keys in his hand. He is in control of his destiny. If he finishes ahead of Massa in every remaining race, Lewis is the winner, obviously. But its better than that. Lewis can finish one position behind Massa in every remaining race (Massa first, Lewis second; or Massa second, Lewis third, etc) and still win the championship.

So for Felipe now, it is not enough that his Ferrari be faster than the McLaren for the last 3 races. Felipe can win the remaining three races, and if Lewis comes in second, Lewis takes the championship, by one point. In effect it would be the "Singapore effect" - the six point cushion, due to the pit stop failure with the fuel hose.

What Massa now needs, desperately, is for Kimi to show up, and finish second, behind Massa, but ahead of Hamilton, for at least one of the last three races (and Massa finish ahead of Hamilton for every remaining race). Thats much to ask, especially as Kimi has had a horrendous second half of the season, while he was still competing for the championship. I do doubt it whether Kimi will truly give his 100% now in the last races, when he's crashed out several times quite spectacularly at the end of the race, and still those times (Spa, Singapore) been behind Hamilton when Kimi crashed.. If he can't beat Hamilton when Kimi is racing for his own championship, how much will he push "more" to bring a supporting second position for Massa.

So its looking very promising for Hamilton. But now, what he needs is solid podium finishes to the last three races. What Lewis cannot now do, is to make the mistakes we saw last season, such as beaching his car in China for example..

Yes, it will be exciting, and yes, we could well see the two drivers within a couple of points to the last race, and what more can we honestly ask for in a season, than a competitive season. And that is what we've seen this year.

Alonso also wins in 2008, Singapore review

The Singapore race was impressive on TV, a most beautiful town in the night race view, from the helicopter shots, with the race track sparkling like a diamond necklace..

The qualifying had a somewhat familiar setting. Massa first, Hamilton second and Raikkonen third. The race also seemed to follow predictable form, with Felipe running away from the others and seemed to be headed for an easy win.

Then came Piquet's accident and the safety car. And like so often with the safety car, the resulting pit stops turned into a total lottery. Massa was further caught in an accident with the electronic lights of the Ferrari pit, and left (with the green light showing) while the fuel hose was still attached, wrecking the fuel rig. His race was ruined.

Kimi was also a victim of the unscheduled pit stop. It seemed that Kimi was fuelled for longer than Massa, now he came in right after Massa and had to wait behind Massa at the pit stop, while most cars refuelled and rushed past him, until Kimi got to be refuelled. Still, Kimi was able to claw back from a backmarker position after this horrendous Ferrari pit stop, to a respectable 5th place towards the end of the race. But Kimi's horrible luck again hit him hard, at the end of the race, with 4 laps to go, he crashed into the wall. This is not Kimi's year (his career seems to go see-saw, a great year, a horrible year, a great year, a horrible year; this pattern was true like clock-work at McLaren as well. Is this more Kimi than the car?)

Lewis was able to get out best of the front-runners, and turned it into a safe third place finish, with precious 6 points, with Massa, Kubica and Raikkonen all failing to score.

Meanwhile, the lucky frontrunner out of the pit stops was Alonso. He turned the pace car situation into his advantage, and raced to challenge for the win. Nico Rosberg led at mid-point but was penalized for taking a pit stop when the pits were closed, which then demoted him down, and he finished second.

An exciting race yes, but mostly so because of the pace car mixing up the pack. Still, we saw plenty of overtaking, so this Singapore circuit is definitely worth the racing..

But Hamilton? Now holds a 7 point lead with 3 races to go... He's sitting pretty.

Monday, September 15, 2008

This is how bad Kimi has been since Silverstone..

I went back the blogs to the magical moment of Silverstone, when 3 drivers were tied for 48 points (Hamilton, Massa and Raikkonen) and Kubica was only 2 points behind them.

Obviously Kimi has been falling behind since then. But how had is bad. Since Silverstone, in 5 races, here is how they have performed (in order of best to worst, down to Kimi)

Best Hamilton 30 points (ave 6 per race)
2nd Massa 29 points (ave 5.8 per race)
3rd Kovalainen 27 points (ave 5.4 per race)
4th Kubica 18 points (ave 3.6 per race)
5th Heidfeld 17 points (ave 3.4 per race)
6th Alonso 15 points (ave 3 per race)
7th Vettel 12 points (ave 2.4 per race)
8th - tie
Glock 10 points (ave 2 per race) and
Piquet Jr 10 points (ave 2 per race)
10th Kimi Raikkonen 9 points !!! (ave 1.8 per race)

Since he had clawed up to tie the championship lead by Silverstone, and was poised to run away with his second championship, Kimi was not just weaker than his two tied title-rivals, or weaker than the three other valid championship contenders. Kimi has scored less points than NINE other F1 drivers..

This is not when the season "was over" and Ferrari would have shifted focus to Massa. No, this was from Silverstone where Kimi was tied with Massa in points, and as Ferrari's reigning champion, clearly the number 1 driver.

Its not that the car has been the fault - Massa has essentially tied Hamilton (lost only one point over 5 races to Lewis).

WHAT HAPPENED ?

is he injured ? Ferrari just re-signed him as the highest-paid racer in the world, knowing he won't be winning this season. What is wrong with Kimi. A lousy 9 points over five races when - rookies like Nelson Piquet Jr and Sebastian Vettel outscore him during these races..

Vettel ! Another new winner and first win for another team in Monza

And here is my utter and unreserved congratulations to Sebastian Vettel. Yes, it was a fluke race, the rain making the qualifying a lottery. Still, someone had to drive fastest in that, and Sebastian did.

Then it is not easy to take your first pole position and turn that into a win. Again, Vettel was supremely lucky, in that this was an extremely wet race - to start behind the pace car (no risk of anyone passing him at the start) and also - a drying race, meaning that drivers behind him would have to try on the intermediate tyres before him and thus no risk for him - the opposite would be the total lottery, if it was a dry race getting wetter and anyone behind him might switch at the right moment, and then overtake him. But that won't happen with the drying race as long as his team was vigilant, he held the lead, and they brought him in at the right moment for intermediate tyres.

And of course the biggest benefit, being able to drive without the spray, in a race with a clear view.

The Toro Rosso, the junior team of Red Bull, won a race before Red Bull had. And young Sebastian Vettel did everything perfectly right, and made no mistakes, and won. Briliant. Congratulations. I would have hoped this to have happened back when the team was still a Minardi, but even so, this is magnificent for all the backmarker teams, and any underdogs in any race.

Beatiful. I hope that your career Sebastian will be long and have many many wins in it.

A funny coincidence. The podium at Monza had actually the three first-time winners this year. Vettel the newest winner was first; Heikki the previous first-time winner was second. And Kubica the first of the first-time winners of this season, was third. So the podium was also the celebration of the new talent of F1. Funny to think, that Lewis Hamilton (the likely new champion this season) is no longer new talent ha-ha..

Talking about Lewis. Amazing. He started 15th. He had to take an unscheduled pit stop (bad strategy choice, one-stop strategy, but forced to make second pit stop to change tyrees for intermediate tyres). Yet he finished seventh. Kimi... started 14th, had no problem with pit stops, and finished 9th. Who is the best driver right now? It is quite clearly Hamilton.

And yes, I'm a Finn. But come on, Heikki Kovalainen started second - behind a Toro Rosso of all cars - and finished second. I think I heard the commentator count that Lewis had passed a total of 15 cars during the race. Heikki in the same car was unable to pass one rookie driver in a Toro Rosso.. There is a significant difference in class between these two drivers.

And Massa. I am not impressed. He was there stuck in mid-field, started 6th, finished 6th. Made no progress at all.

So yes, now its a direct race between Hamilton and Massa for the championship. One point between them, Lewis in the lead. It is certainly exciting.~

But more than that, we've had the enormous delight, of six different winners, in four different cars, and three first-time driver winners, and two first-time car manufacturer winners this season. And we still have 4 races to go, including the night race of Singapore, and the often wet Japan and often dramatic Brazil to go.

It is a great season, one for the ages. I am just trying to get over the fact that Kimi is no longer in the hunt for it this season (unless some silly error like Massa and Lewis crashing into each other in the next race or something)

Fate can be so cruel, Spa review, Kimi's hopes crash in late rain

This was the cruel race for Kimi's hopes.

The reigning champion had just had misfortune with the previous race with his engine failing. Had he finished fourth there, he'd have been 8 points behind Lewis and just 2 points behind Massa, going into his favourite race, in Spa. As it was, after the blown engine in Valencia, Kimi was 13 points behind Hamilton and 7 points behind his team mate. After the Belgian GP in Spa, there would only be 5 races left. So if Kimi intended to catch up to his team mate, and show a real challenge for the championship to the end of the season - and get his team to support him as the number 1 driver - this was his must-do race. His must-win race.

But going into Spa, since Kimi started winning, he had won each of the race held in Spa (it is not held every year) ie three times. Thus neither of his rivals had won there. Spa is considered a driver's circuit demanding very brave and precise driving with real chances of overtaking. Just what the champion needed to re-ignite his championship chances. Incidentially, it was now 9 races since Kimi last won (in Spain, at Barcelona)

So, the qualifying did not go to plan. Kimi was down in 3rd position, with Massa in second and Hamilton at Pole Position. And my first comment here - Kimi has been horrendous in qualifying all season. Very much of the race is the qualifying position. Massa has outqualified him better than 2:1..

So, it was a wet race. Right at the start, Kimi takes a bold start and manages to pass Massa on the first lap. He's up to second. Then while the track is still very wet and slippery, Hamilton has a spin, and Kimi gets to his side, and then because Kimi has the better momentum, he out-drags Lewis and takes the lead. Then pushing hard, Kimi builds about a 10 second lead.

This is just what we wanted, a top driver, overtaking, brave moves, slippery, dangerous race, and a magnificent result, which would bring the title race even more close. Had the race finished with Kimi first, Lewis second and Massa third, the championship would have become 76 for Lewis, 70 for Massa and 67 for Kimi. He'd have been 11 points from the lead, with 5 more races to go. Kimi certainly would have know these numbers in his head, as he was comfortably leading the race.

Lewis admitted in post-race interviews that he thought he could not catch Kimi. But the racer instinct in Hamilton rose to the occasion. Lewis gradually worked the gap and towards the end of the race, he had caught Kimi.

So towards the end of the race they expected rain. It arrived four laps to the end. Lewis made a courageous overtaking move - which Kimi partially blocked - which forced Lewis to cut a chicane. He gave the position back to Raikkonen, but right afterwards, Hamilton attacked the Finn and passed the Ferrari in the next turn. This move would later be penalized.

Nonetheless, in the racing situation, Hamilton was now ahead of Raikkonen, leading the race once again. It did not last long. As the rain got heavier, the track turned into a skating rink, and lewis spun, Kimi passed him. Not a moment later, Kimi spun, and Lewis took to the lead again. Then - the cruel of cruellest fate - Kimi crashed.

Of all the cars at the rain in the end, only Kimi crashed. It seemed like fate had decided to crush Kimi's hopes in a most dramatic way. First to let him pass both of his rivals, and lead the race. Then with a couple of laps to go, take it all away.

As it ended, Lewis won, and brought his points total to 80. Massa finished second to 72 points. But Kimi received no points, and left Belgium with 57 points. 23 points behind the championship leader and - painfully - 15 points behind his team mate.

This was the de-facto end to Kimi's champhionship chances as Ferrari has to shift focus now to Massa for the championship. It did make me particularly sad, personally, that the brave race by Kimi did not get its just reward. If he was to crash, then not on this track, not after he had passed both Massa and Lewis to take the lead. This was crushing...

Now, as to the championship, its now a two-man race. I do admire Lewis's style and courage. He reminds me of Montoya when he joined F1, and seemed to invent overtaking places where they were not supposed to exist. If there were points given for overtaking, Lewis would be in the lead of that champhionship too. If I can't have Kimi (or Heikki) lead the championship, then certainly Hamilton is the most amazing driver out there, and I wish the champhionship to him.

Sorry Kimi, two-in-a-row was not to be. I truly hope Kimi is not thinking of retiring, but equally, this season, we haven't seen that Kimi we saw for so many years in the McLarens and now last year at Ferrari. He has not really pushed this year. I don't know why..

PS - the stewards penalized Lewis 25 sec for the advantage he got cutting chicane. I thought that was very rough penalty for Hamilton, but I also recall the rule was perhaps at some point, that you give back your gained position, and wait until after the next turn, to attack the car in front of you again.. if this was the rule (if I remember correctly) then the penalty is fair - for Lewis. It won't bring Kimi's broken car (or lost season) back.. McLaren have appealed the decision and we should know in a few weeks or so..

Valencia, the field may be narrowing

(This is posted three races later, after Monza)

So it was the first race at Valencia's street circuit. The race suggested the worst in street races - a processional. This is NOT what we want in new F1 circuits. We want overtaking. I hope Singapore's new street circuit can provide what Valencia could not. And unless they can change the Valencia circuit, I hope this won't be a regular on the calendar. I can understand that Monaco is a fixture on the calendar, inspite of no viable overtaking in modern F1 cars on that circuit, because of its heritage, but lets not get new circuits that are going to be processionals.

As to the race? Qualifying had Massa first, Lewis second, Kubica third and Raikkonen fourth. After the second pit stops, the order was still Massa, Hamilton, Kubica and Raikkonen. Would have ended that way, until Raikkonen's engine blew up on lap 45.

Massa winning brought him to 6 points of Hamilton. Kubica falls a bit more behind, and is now 15 points behind the leader. Raikkonen drops drastically with no points, and is 13 points behind Hamilton, and perilously already 7 points behind Massa, with only 6 races to go. Spa was turning into the must-win race for Kimi to keep his hopes of Ferrari team support to the end of the season.