Monday, July 7, 2008

Three way tie at mid-season, two points separate top 4 drivers from 3 teams

Wow, Silverstone.

First, too bad about Heikki. Had it been a dry race, he was well poised to win it. But he seems to be closing in on his first win.

Nick, Quick Nick Heidfeld, again the bride's maid. Almost everyone spun at one point or another, Felipe Massa doing so many spins you'd think he's auditioning for the Royal Ballet, not racing at the British GP. So the steady driving style of Heidfeld was just what these conditions needed. Heikki spun, Kimi spun, Massa spun, Webber spun, almost every racer spun at some point. But Hamilton didn't spin. So Heidfeld played it safe and patient, but was not awarded a win. Yet another second place finish.

And Rubens. Barrichello got one more podium for his long career, and totally, completely, unexpectedly, for the total backmarker Honda team. What a thrill.

So then there was Lewis. He was downcast after his team mate took pole position. He was stuck on fourth on the grid, on the dirty side on a rainy day. He was not known as the best rainy day racer. And after his aggressive move at the start, which got him ahead of the spinning Webber and the blocked Kimi, right alongside Heikki, Lewis was not able to pass his team mate, and was stuck on second. Trailing in the heavy rain, it would have seemed hopeless for him to even consider a win this day.

Yet through trials to victory. Passing Heikki on the fourth lap, on a fast part of the circuit, the rest was suddenly total domination by Lewis Hamilton, at his home race. He has already had his first victory last year. He has also now this season taken the first race win of the season. And he has won at Monaco, the most glamorous and "desirable" race. So the only meaningful race victory left for him to achieve, was his home race, Silverstone, which he won, and in such strong manner that he lapped all but two cars. A fantastic performance. The only thing left for him is to win the championship. But his individual race win must no doubt be the sweetest of his career and remain vividly memorable for all the trouble it was in the pouring English rain.

THREE WAY TIE

And yes, now we have an amazing season indeed. At exact half-point of the season, we have four drivers tied for 48 points, Lewis Hamilton with 3 wins and best next finishes at nominally first in the McLaren, Felipe Massa with 3 wins also at nominally second for Ferrari, and Kimi Raikkonen with 2 wins but also 48 points, nominally third for Ferrari. And just a tantalizing 2 points behind the trio, lurks Robert Kubica in the BMW, with 46 points.

I cannot remember - and just because I cannot remember of course is no guarantee of it actually being true - of any season ever, where at or past the half-point, there were three championship leaders tied in points, or four leaders all within 2 points of each other.

I have to go do some quick searching of some F1 stats to see if this has ever happened. But if last season was the closest racing with three drivers ending the season within one point, we are actually now headed very literally for an even more close season. Remember last season too there was one point when three drivers were even in points, but that was after 3 races, not after 9.

EMOTIONS?

Lewis has to have received a ton of confidence from that win. A ton of it. This was the one win he really wanted and he got it, only on his second attempt. It is the home race for his team and he had all his family there to witness it. And going into the win his team mate had seemed, for the first time, to have the upper hand.

His team mate, Heikki Kovalainen must have felt severely hit by it. This was his race to win, but Lewis snatched it from Heikki, fair and square. Not on pit stops or strategy, but wheel-on-wheel racing on the track. Must hurt.

Kimi, this time he was a victim of unfortunate strategy and unpredictable rain. He was well poised for a podium finish, challenging Lewis even, before the first pit stops. While Lewis changed tyres, Kimi didn't. I don't know if this was a Ferrari pit crew decision or Kimi's decision, but it could have worked out, if the track had not gotten wetter. Kimi has in the past cared for his tyres so well, to last the intermediate wet tyres into de-facto slick tyres, and raced well with them on a drying track.

But as the new heavy spell of rain fell right after Kimi's and Lewis's pit stop, Lewis was on the right tyre choice, new intermediates barely suitable for the rain, and Kimi on the wrong tyres, old worn intermediates totally unsuitable for the deluge. As we saw with the rapid progress by Barrichello, the best tyre choice for the middle stint was full wet tyres, so Kimi went in the wrong direction.

In those ten laps or so that he was on the track, he lost his places and any chance of a podium. This was not a poor performance of Ferrari, nor was it a poor performance by Kimi on the track (and not knowing who decided on not changing tyres). I would think, Kimi is fairly confident that this is an exceptional case of bad luck of wrong tyres for changing conditions - which can happen to anyone - and is no indicator of his true pace. Just one position higher for Kimi and he'd lead the championship right now.

But I bet Kimi has two powerful agents to motivate him. First, his team mate Massa. Massa had a horrible race, and the number of spins must give Kimi confidence, that in bad conditions, he is the far more reliable driver and with half a season to go, he will outdrive his team mate.

But secondly it is the relative position to Lewis Hamilton. Last year after Silverstone, Kimi was 18 points behind Lewis. This year, even after four unlucky races, Kimi is tied with Lewis, his primary title contender. I'm pretty sure Kimi is not bothered and feels good things are heading his way.

So then poor Felipe Massa. He had had such a strong first half of the season. Then he first has a pit stop problem in the final qualifying which prevented him from trying for a good lap. He was then compromised for his fuel strategy. And then the wet race and his spins. I would think that after spinning once, and seeing most of the field pass him, he was frustrated. And to spin soon again, and then again, and again - I understood he spun five separate times - this is a race he will want to totally forget. But now Kimi has caught up with him and is tied for points. And if the team will need to make the choice between the two, it now looks rather bleak, for Massa, will Ferrari support their reigning champion, who even with an unlucky pit stop and wrong tyres, and a spin, collected five points; or go with the young driver who can't concentrate and spins five times in a race and makes everybody laugh at the Prancing Horse. Massa is the unhappiest man of the leaders.

And then Kubica? The ultimate poetic justice would have seen Kubica contest the race to the end, finish 7th, take two points, and be joint tied with four on the leader board. That was too much to ask. He had his moment and was unable to finish the race. If that was to happen, then yes, a race where he started from mid-field is of course the time to do it, rather than throw away a likely podium finishing position, like say Webber with his spin in this race.

Still, BMW must be satisfied that again they finished ahead of one of the two top teams. And that their driver pairing is particularly complementary, where Kubica drives with more risks, to outperform on races in the dry, and Heidfeld is Mr sure hands, driving flawlessly in the wet. A good pairing indeed.

This is a wonderful season. But yes, what is it with Red Bull? Webber put his Red Bull onto second and that was not with a lot less fuel than the rivals. Red Bull has been clawing into contention and is very legitimately ahead of Renault, Williams and Toyota. On a good day and with some luck, maybe the opportune pace car or a couple of the front runners take each other out (like Lewis and Kimi in Montreal), Webber might be a surprise winner still this season. That would be delightful. He is not a young kid anymore, and his best days in racing will soon be past, so one would hope he'd have one lucky day in a reasonably fast car, and this season's Red Bull just might be fast enough for him to do it once.

Still, I'd put my money on Heikki being the next new winner in the series..

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