Hungaroring..
This is the nearest thing to a home race for Finnish drivers. There has never been a grand prix race in Finland. But the Hungarians are ethnically related to Finns, and with the Hungarian GP staged in the summer vacation period - and also as its ticket prices, hotel prices etc tend are significantly less than most more established mid-European races such as Silverstone, Spa/Belgium, Hockenheim and Nurmburgring in Germany, etc - the Hungarian GP has been the favourite pilgrimage for Finnish Grand Prix racing fans right from the very first Hungarian GP in 1986, when Finnish former world champion Keke Rosberg was racing in his last season (in a McLaren). Keke did not finish that race, but he did qualify fifth, giving Finns something to cheer about.
Since then, however, the Hungarian GP has been a very Finland-friendly race. Mika Hakkinen won there twice, in 1999 and 2000 (driving for McLaren). Kimi Raikkonen won there in 2005 (driving for McLaren). And now this year, Heikki Kovalainen picked up his maiden win three weeks ago, at Hungaroring (driving for McLaren). And just to be clear, this is not a particularly McLaren-friendly track - Schumacher won three times in a Ferrari (and Barrichello also once), Alonso for Renault, and even Jenson Button got his only win so far for Honda in Hungary. But the Finns have had a great amount of success in Hungary, and their wins obviously have come always with the Silver Arrows of McLaren-Mercedes.
So of the race? Well, it was clearly supposed to be Lewis Hamilton's race, as the McLaren seemed to be particularly well suited for this track and Lewis took pole position with Heikki lining up beside him in second position. Massa in his Ferrari was lined in third and Kimi again far back, in sixth place. Kubica qualified his BMW in fourth.
The race had Massa take a fantastic start, and pass both Heikki and Lewis to lead the race. Since then, it looked like it would become a duel between Lewis and Felipe. The pit stops suggested that going into the second pit stops we would see all the excitement. Until Lewis's tyre failed. Hamilton fell back to 10th place by the time he had pitted and received a new tyre. Lewis fought bravely back to 5th place, which speaks volumes of how competitive the McLaren was in Hungary.
That left the victory into the hands of Felipe Massa. He drove well, with Heikki attempting to catch up to him towards the end of the race, until three laps before the end, on the start/finish straight, Massa's Ferrari engine failed.
That gave the win to Heikki, his maiden win. Another driver who excelled at the race was Timo Glock who finished second for Toyota. And a lukewarm performance by the reigning champion, Kimi finished third due only to the rare technical failures of Lewis and Massa.
As a Finn, for me, it was of course an exceptionally happy moment to cheer the fourth-ever Finnish Grand Prix winner, in Heikki Kovalainen. In his first season at McLaren he took his first win. Neither Mika Hakkinen nor Kimi Raikkonen were able to do that in their first McLaren seasons. Mika was in his fifth season for McLaren when he won in the last race of that season. That was also Mika's seventh season in Formula One overall. Kimi was in his second season at McLaren until he got his maiden win, which was his third season overall. Heikki is obviously in his first season at McLaren, and this is his second season overall in Formula One.
Yes, there was a lot of luck involved, and clearly the McLaren is very competitive this season. Still, this is great news for all Finnish fans of Grand Prix racing - and also for fans of Finnish race drivers in other countries. Obviously I fully hope and expect that Heikki will win many more, and I hope he will manage to win the championship as well in his career later on.
As to this season, it does mean we get a second new winner this season (remembering that Kubica also won his maiden win). And it means that so far, we've had 5 different winners in the 11 races we've had so far. And for skill - there is also Fernando Alonso, the former two-time world champion, in the underperforming Renault, who has the skills easily, if the right amount of luck comes his way, perhaps in the form of rain or pace cars, etc - to also get a win before this magnificent season is done.
So, the pack was shuffled well, and the two leaders in the standings had technical problems. Where does it leave the championship? Lewis still leads with five points ahead of Kimi. Massa is 8 points behind him, and Kubica has fallen to 13 points behind. Nick Heidfeld in the other BMW is 21 points behind Lewis, and his chances, in particular looking at how much BMW has fallen behind McLaren and Ferrari - seem very slim for this season. But Kovalainen, 24 points behind Hamilton, now with his first win, can still hold onto some distant hope with 7 races to go. But even if he won every remaining race - which would suggest the McLaren was the more competitive car than the Ferrari to the end, its likely Lewis would finish second (and Massa, Raikkonen and Kubica would fight for third) - Lewis would win by 10 points over Heikki. So Heikki does need for Lewis to have some serious setbacks and/or have the Ferraris and BMW's to finish between him and Lewis for any chance of this season's championship. Still, he must have gotten a big dose of self-confidence, making him even more motivated to race for the pole positions and race wins. Obviously the math favours Lewis intensely (against his team mate) and judging by recent performance - the tyre failure derailed Hamilton's likely win in Hungary - Lewis must be the favourite for this seaon's title.
And of the Ferrari pilots, Kimi has to be given the bigger chances at this point. Consider last season. After the Grand Prix in Germany (Nurmburgring, was not called the German GP, but the European GP) Massa had led Kimi by 7 points. Kimi had typical Finland luck at Hungary, and after the Hungaroring he had jumped to lead Massa by one point. In the first half of the season 2007, Massa had held as much as a 10 point lead over Kimi. At Hungary the tables were turned. By the end of the season Kimi had built a 16 point cushion over his team mate. Kimi is a racer, very determined, disciplined, competitive and extremely focused on the full season. Plus he's done it before..
Meanwhile Massa can't believe his luck. He had built a decent lead again this season over his team mate, and here we go, after half point, and the Finn just seems to pull ahead, rather easily. Yes, there was an engine failure but both guys have roughly the same amount of technical problems over a full season, yet the Brazilian must be concerned that the reigning champ did not bother to fight at full intensity in the first half of the season while Massa put in 100%. Now suddenly Kimi pulls ahead of him and could well repeat what he did last season..
Returning to Kimi and Lewis. Last season after Hungaroring, Lewis had a 7 point cushion to the reigning champion (his team mate) Alonso, and Kimi was 20 points behind the British rookie driver. This season the reigning champ is Kimi, and he is only 5 points behind. Hamilton must be concerned that Kimi is clearly his strongest rival, and far more dangerous this season than last season.
Kimi - must be smiling. He has not performed at his best the first half of this season, yet he finds himself only five points adrift of the leader with seven races to go. They include Kimi's fave race track - Spa, which ever since Kimi started winning in 2003, he's won every Spa race that has been held - three times. And of the other six, Kimi has won also in Brazil and China; of the seven remaining races, the only race track where Lewis has won before is Japan. And the season includes two new tracks, Valencia and Singapore - and Kimi has always been very quick on new tracks where nobody has previous experience (but so has Lewis).
And there is the team hierarchy. The worst thing that could have happened to Lewis, is a maiden win at mid-season for Kovalainen combined with technical problem for Hamilton. So where Lewis was nearing a point of "inevitability" and nearly statistically insurmountable lead - and could expect some degree of support from his team mate - before Hungary Lewis had led Heikki by 30 points, had over twice as many points as his Finnish team mate; after Hungary Heikki had clawed that to 24 points.. If Heikki remains very close to Lewis (or even worse, finishes ahead of him in some races), Lewis will not be getting any preferred treatment for many races to go.
The added confidence of Heikki (his first pole position at Silverstone, and now this maiden win) will definitely add the competitiveness of Kovalainen, and add to his confidencel; this will certainly knaw on Hamilton's confidence, and will put a lot of pressure on Lewis. The end of last season showed that under pressure Hamilton starts to make mistakes. And just remember how downcast Hamilton was in Silverstone, when Heikki got his first pole position. Hamilton does have a lot of emotions, and they can get to him.
Meanwhile, Ferrari has always had a strategy of preferring their top driver. Hungary was exactly the best possible result from Kimi's point of view (and worst from Massa's) in that Kimi surged from being 3 points behind Massa, to now being 3 points ahead of him.
If there was any doubt, should Ferrari support the reigning champion or his Brazilian team mate, when Felipe Massa was ahead by a couple of points, now that Kimi has passed him in the standings and leads Massa by 3 points, the tables are turning rather conclusively in favour of Raikkonen right at the time when Ferrari management will start to make that decision of which driver to focus on. Massa is also now under extreme pressure, he has to outperform Kimi for the next two or three races, else he will clearly be relegated to a supporting role. Massa does not perform well under such pressure.
But the Iceman? He knows his team will be supporting him. He knows he beat Massa last season from being further behind. He knows he beat Hamilton - who used to drive the better car last season - and who was 20 points ahead of him. Now he has the best car and is a only a couple of points from the lead. And the Iceman? He does not buckle with pressure. He took the fight to the very last race three times before (when each time his title rival led going into the final race and had the better car). Michael Schumacher and Fernando Alonso had managed to barely beat Kimi twice before in the last race; and last season, Kimi was able to snatch that victory from the jaws of McLaren. He will always fight every race, and he can smell his second consecutive championship. He will be fierce to the end.
As to BMW. I do hope they could still return to form, but they are a smaller team than Ferrari and McLaren. They have already met their goal for this season (their maiden win) and the prudent decision would be to focus full attention to the 2009 car, while Ferrari and McLaren are locked into their duel and pour resources into further development of this season's car. I think Kubica's (and Heidfeld's) chances for further wins this season will not come "on merit" but will only come under exceptional conditions and with a lot of luck - if say the front runners crash into each other or a major rain race or lots of pace cars etc...
But yes, exciting times. I do see this quickly clearling into a duel. Much as I'd love Heikki to really catch fire, I honestly don't see that happening. He may well postpone his elimination from contention and stay in the mix, with podium finishes. But in the silver cars, it will turn into Hamilton as the primary contender by around Singapore GP. On Ferrari's side, I think Massa is so prone to occasional blunders and errors - even more this season without the traction control - and with Ferrari's more obvious strategy of preferring one driver - Kimi should get unofficial lead driver status within two or three races, could well be after he very likely wins Spa Belgium, and heads to Ferrari's home race in Italy..
Then its down to really two things. How well do they develop their cars, McLaren and Ferrari. If McLaren had achieved a miniscule lead, that was so slight, that Ferrari could catch up within any interval between races.
And then its down to the racers and their motivation and focus. I have been concerned about Kimi's lack of total focus several times this season. I do think that changes now as he can sense his chances are better than ever before, but he knows he does have to focus fully every remaining race.
Against that is the fact that Kimi is a seasoned veteran - not that much growth anymore from one season to the next. Lewis is only in his second season. He is still growing a lot. Last season he finished only one point behind Kimi and his own team mate was his toughest rival through most of the season. This season he is far clear of his own team mate - and must feel a lot less interference from within the team - and he will certainly grow and learn and become a better driver this season than he was last year in his rookie season.
Can Lewis grow more, or can Kimi pull more out of his reserves.. This will be a magnificent racing season through the remaining seven races. I love it.
And going into Valencia this weekend, shortly we'll have the qualifying. It is a first-time track for all. The track is not a regular race track, its a city circuit like Monaco (and Singapore) so there also are not contests staged in junior series, so the drivers can not have "practised" on the track in their junior racing careers. It is a test of how quickly can they learn and adapt to the track.
I can't wait..
Friday, August 22, 2008
Hockenheim.. Lewis surges ahead
Quick notes while on vacation, and on the eve of Valencia's inaugral GP's qualifying. First Hockenheim.
The German GPs are Kimi's bogey tracks, both of them, and he must be happy that the season no longer contains two of the races, but rather alternates between Nurmburgring and Hockenheim. Still, the German races have always been bad news for Raikkonen.
Meanwhile, McLaren has been catching up to Ferrari's lead technically, and BMW, after its maiden win, seems to have slipped back somewhat.
Hockenheim Lewis on form, grabbing pole position. Massa lined up second and Heikki Kovalainen on third. Kimi was down in sixth, and Kubica in seventh position.
The race.. Lewis dominated and won the race without much trouble or drama. Massa lost a place down from where he qualified and finished third. Heikki lost two places and finished in fifth. Kimi held his position and finished sixth. The amazing performance was by Renault rookie driver Nelson Piquet, who started back in 17th and managed to finish second.
After the race, Lewis had gained a 4 point cushion to Massa, 7 points ahead of Kimi and 10 points ahead of Kubica. The wonderfully evenly matched season turned much less so in just one race.
The German GPs are Kimi's bogey tracks, both of them, and he must be happy that the season no longer contains two of the races, but rather alternates between Nurmburgring and Hockenheim. Still, the German races have always been bad news for Raikkonen.
Meanwhile, McLaren has been catching up to Ferrari's lead technically, and BMW, after its maiden win, seems to have slipped back somewhat.
Hockenheim Lewis on form, grabbing pole position. Massa lined up second and Heikki Kovalainen on third. Kimi was down in sixth, and Kubica in seventh position.
The race.. Lewis dominated and won the race without much trouble or drama. Massa lost a place down from where he qualified and finished third. Heikki lost two places and finished in fifth. Kimi held his position and finished sixth. The amazing performance was by Renault rookie driver Nelson Piquet, who started back in 17th and managed to finish second.
After the race, Lewis had gained a 4 point cushion to Massa, 7 points ahead of Kimi and 10 points ahead of Kubica. The wonderfully evenly matched season turned much less so in just one race.
Monday, July 7, 2008
How close is close, at Silverstone four drivers within 2 points, historical comparison
I took a quick stroll through historical stats. How exceptional is this season with three drivers tied at 48 points by mid-season and the four top drivers all within 2 points?
I only looked at the season point scoring status at the time of the British Grand Prix, which tends to be roughly at the middle of the F1 calendar. But I did not take the mathematical half point. Obviously one driver having a good or bad race can alter the situation quite greatly from one race to the next, remembering Lewis was 10points behind Massa only this Saturday.. So this is certainly an incomplete analysis, but on quick-and-dirty view, and as the F1 circus is so heavily centered in Britain, and the British GP tends to be at half-point, I think its a fairly representative sampling.
I only went back to 1963, because before that there were less than 10 races per season, so "mid point" British GP only had 4 or 5 races and it is not really that impressive to have near parity with only a few races to consider.
Now, going back through those stats very quickly reveals and reminds, that we have often very boring seasons, when one driver totally dominates the season, say like Michael Schumacher in 2002, running away with the season and the championship not being of any real interest at about half point. Luckily that is not the common case, but there are many of those.
Then the typical scenario is two drivers only being meaningful contestants for the season, like say classic Senna vs Prost duels and Schumacher vs Hakkinen contests. That is the norm.
It is very rare for us to have three drivers in close proximity, within a few points of each other. That of course doesn't mean that the third or fourth placed driver at mid-season cannot win it - Kimi was 18 points behind last season after Silverstone and won the season, but I'm now looking for true "nail-biters" - when have we had a season like this one.
So, lets start with last season. The season ended with Kimi at 110, Hamilton and Alonso both at 109 points and Massa with 94. As I've said many times, it was the most closely contested season, as the drivers were so evenly matched all through the season by their wins. But while the wins were evenly spaced, the points were not. At Silverstone, the British GP was 9th out of 17 races last year, the leader Hamilton was 12 points ahead of second place Alonso, 18 points clear of Raikkonen and 19 points from Massa. So the split between first and third was 18 points, and between first and fourth was 19 points. That is our "benchmark" to compare other close seasons.
We then really have to go far into history to find a truly competitive season next. But the 1987 season was an epic battle between Piquet, Mansell, Senna and Prost (wow, four great champions, and Piquet took it that year). The UK race was a bit before mid point as the 7th race of a 16 race season. And like this year, these four drivers were in three different cars, Piquet and Mansell in Williams, Senna in Lotus and Prost in McLaren. How close was it? Very close. The top 3 were within 3 points of each other and the top four within 5 points. Second and third place were tied for 30 points.
Another very close season, not quite as close as 1987, was the 1977 season, when it was between Lauda, Scheckter, Andretti and Reutemann. Also four drivers in three cars, Lauda and Reutemann in Ferraris, Scheckter in Wolf, and Andretti in Lotus. The British GP was 10th of 16, a bit past mid-point. And the top 3 drivers were within 4 points, very tight, but the top 4 drivers were within 12 points, not that close. None of the four were tied.
The previously most competitive season, at the British GP measurement point, was even further back, in 1974, when the British GP was 10th out of 15, so actually two thirds to the back of the season. This was at the era of Fittipaldi (who won the season) and the early part of Lauda's career. Lauda in a McLaren led at half point by one point ahead of Fittipaldi in a Ferrari, with his team mate Regazzoni in the sister Ferrari two points behind, tied with Scheckter in the Tyrrell. The split between the top 3 drivers was 3 points, and the split between the top 4 drivers, was also only 3 points. And the third and fourth place drivers were tied.
Until this season, that was the most close season, by the British GP. The split between the top 3 drivers was 3 points, and also the split from first to fourth in the season was 3 points. (fifth place was very far behind this quartet)
Now this season. The British GP is the 9th of 18 races, the mid-point. We have 3 drivers tied for the lead, so the top three drivers are split by zero points, and the top four drivers are split by only 2 points. And the four drivers are in cars of three manufacturers (McLaren, Ferrari and BMW). And the three leading drivers obviously are tied. This is more close as the championship points contest, than any previous season (back to the season of 1963) when measured at the point of the British GP.
Yeah, I love it. You could not ask for more of a Formula One season, could you?
I only looked at the season point scoring status at the time of the British Grand Prix, which tends to be roughly at the middle of the F1 calendar. But I did not take the mathematical half point. Obviously one driver having a good or bad race can alter the situation quite greatly from one race to the next, remembering Lewis was 10points behind Massa only this Saturday.. So this is certainly an incomplete analysis, but on quick-and-dirty view, and as the F1 circus is so heavily centered in Britain, and the British GP tends to be at half-point, I think its a fairly representative sampling.
I only went back to 1963, because before that there were less than 10 races per season, so "mid point" British GP only had 4 or 5 races and it is not really that impressive to have near parity with only a few races to consider.
Now, going back through those stats very quickly reveals and reminds, that we have often very boring seasons, when one driver totally dominates the season, say like Michael Schumacher in 2002, running away with the season and the championship not being of any real interest at about half point. Luckily that is not the common case, but there are many of those.
Then the typical scenario is two drivers only being meaningful contestants for the season, like say classic Senna vs Prost duels and Schumacher vs Hakkinen contests. That is the norm.
It is very rare for us to have three drivers in close proximity, within a few points of each other. That of course doesn't mean that the third or fourth placed driver at mid-season cannot win it - Kimi was 18 points behind last season after Silverstone and won the season, but I'm now looking for true "nail-biters" - when have we had a season like this one.
So, lets start with last season. The season ended with Kimi at 110, Hamilton and Alonso both at 109 points and Massa with 94. As I've said many times, it was the most closely contested season, as the drivers were so evenly matched all through the season by their wins. But while the wins were evenly spaced, the points were not. At Silverstone, the British GP was 9th out of 17 races last year, the leader Hamilton was 12 points ahead of second place Alonso, 18 points clear of Raikkonen and 19 points from Massa. So the split between first and third was 18 points, and between first and fourth was 19 points. That is our "benchmark" to compare other close seasons.
We then really have to go far into history to find a truly competitive season next. But the 1987 season was an epic battle between Piquet, Mansell, Senna and Prost (wow, four great champions, and Piquet took it that year). The UK race was a bit before mid point as the 7th race of a 16 race season. And like this year, these four drivers were in three different cars, Piquet and Mansell in Williams, Senna in Lotus and Prost in McLaren. How close was it? Very close. The top 3 were within 3 points of each other and the top four within 5 points. Second and third place were tied for 30 points.
Another very close season, not quite as close as 1987, was the 1977 season, when it was between Lauda, Scheckter, Andretti and Reutemann. Also four drivers in three cars, Lauda and Reutemann in Ferraris, Scheckter in Wolf, and Andretti in Lotus. The British GP was 10th of 16, a bit past mid-point. And the top 3 drivers were within 4 points, very tight, but the top 4 drivers were within 12 points, not that close. None of the four were tied.
The previously most competitive season, at the British GP measurement point, was even further back, in 1974, when the British GP was 10th out of 15, so actually two thirds to the back of the season. This was at the era of Fittipaldi (who won the season) and the early part of Lauda's career. Lauda in a McLaren led at half point by one point ahead of Fittipaldi in a Ferrari, with his team mate Regazzoni in the sister Ferrari two points behind, tied with Scheckter in the Tyrrell. The split between the top 3 drivers was 3 points, and the split between the top 4 drivers, was also only 3 points. And the third and fourth place drivers were tied.
Until this season, that was the most close season, by the British GP. The split between the top 3 drivers was 3 points, and also the split from first to fourth in the season was 3 points. (fifth place was very far behind this quartet)
Now this season. The British GP is the 9th of 18 races, the mid-point. We have 3 drivers tied for the lead, so the top three drivers are split by zero points, and the top four drivers are split by only 2 points. And the four drivers are in cars of three manufacturers (McLaren, Ferrari and BMW). And the three leading drivers obviously are tied. This is more close as the championship points contest, than any previous season (back to the season of 1963) when measured at the point of the British GP.
Yeah, I love it. You could not ask for more of a Formula One season, could you?
Three way tie at mid-season, two points separate top 4 drivers from 3 teams
Wow, Silverstone.
First, too bad about Heikki. Had it been a dry race, he was well poised to win it. But he seems to be closing in on his first win.
Nick, Quick Nick Heidfeld, again the bride's maid. Almost everyone spun at one point or another, Felipe Massa doing so many spins you'd think he's auditioning for the Royal Ballet, not racing at the British GP. So the steady driving style of Heidfeld was just what these conditions needed. Heikki spun, Kimi spun, Massa spun, Webber spun, almost every racer spun at some point. But Hamilton didn't spin. So Heidfeld played it safe and patient, but was not awarded a win. Yet another second place finish.
And Rubens. Barrichello got one more podium for his long career, and totally, completely, unexpectedly, for the total backmarker Honda team. What a thrill.
So then there was Lewis. He was downcast after his team mate took pole position. He was stuck on fourth on the grid, on the dirty side on a rainy day. He was not known as the best rainy day racer. And after his aggressive move at the start, which got him ahead of the spinning Webber and the blocked Kimi, right alongside Heikki, Lewis was not able to pass his team mate, and was stuck on second. Trailing in the heavy rain, it would have seemed hopeless for him to even consider a win this day.
Yet through trials to victory. Passing Heikki on the fourth lap, on a fast part of the circuit, the rest was suddenly total domination by Lewis Hamilton, at his home race. He has already had his first victory last year. He has also now this season taken the first race win of the season. And he has won at Monaco, the most glamorous and "desirable" race. So the only meaningful race victory left for him to achieve, was his home race, Silverstone, which he won, and in such strong manner that he lapped all but two cars. A fantastic performance. The only thing left for him is to win the championship. But his individual race win must no doubt be the sweetest of his career and remain vividly memorable for all the trouble it was in the pouring English rain.
THREE WAY TIE
And yes, now we have an amazing season indeed. At exact half-point of the season, we have four drivers tied for 48 points, Lewis Hamilton with 3 wins and best next finishes at nominally first in the McLaren, Felipe Massa with 3 wins also at nominally second for Ferrari, and Kimi Raikkonen with 2 wins but also 48 points, nominally third for Ferrari. And just a tantalizing 2 points behind the trio, lurks Robert Kubica in the BMW, with 46 points.
I cannot remember - and just because I cannot remember of course is no guarantee of it actually being true - of any season ever, where at or past the half-point, there were three championship leaders tied in points, or four leaders all within 2 points of each other.
I have to go do some quick searching of some F1 stats to see if this has ever happened. But if last season was the closest racing with three drivers ending the season within one point, we are actually now headed very literally for an even more close season. Remember last season too there was one point when three drivers were even in points, but that was after 3 races, not after 9.
EMOTIONS?
Lewis has to have received a ton of confidence from that win. A ton of it. This was the one win he really wanted and he got it, only on his second attempt. It is the home race for his team and he had all his family there to witness it. And going into the win his team mate had seemed, for the first time, to have the upper hand.
His team mate, Heikki Kovalainen must have felt severely hit by it. This was his race to win, but Lewis snatched it from Heikki, fair and square. Not on pit stops or strategy, but wheel-on-wheel racing on the track. Must hurt.
Kimi, this time he was a victim of unfortunate strategy and unpredictable rain. He was well poised for a podium finish, challenging Lewis even, before the first pit stops. While Lewis changed tyres, Kimi didn't. I don't know if this was a Ferrari pit crew decision or Kimi's decision, but it could have worked out, if the track had not gotten wetter. Kimi has in the past cared for his tyres so well, to last the intermediate wet tyres into de-facto slick tyres, and raced well with them on a drying track.
But as the new heavy spell of rain fell right after Kimi's and Lewis's pit stop, Lewis was on the right tyre choice, new intermediates barely suitable for the rain, and Kimi on the wrong tyres, old worn intermediates totally unsuitable for the deluge. As we saw with the rapid progress by Barrichello, the best tyre choice for the middle stint was full wet tyres, so Kimi went in the wrong direction.
In those ten laps or so that he was on the track, he lost his places and any chance of a podium. This was not a poor performance of Ferrari, nor was it a poor performance by Kimi on the track (and not knowing who decided on not changing tyres). I would think, Kimi is fairly confident that this is an exceptional case of bad luck of wrong tyres for changing conditions - which can happen to anyone - and is no indicator of his true pace. Just one position higher for Kimi and he'd lead the championship right now.
But I bet Kimi has two powerful agents to motivate him. First, his team mate Massa. Massa had a horrible race, and the number of spins must give Kimi confidence, that in bad conditions, he is the far more reliable driver and with half a season to go, he will outdrive his team mate.
But secondly it is the relative position to Lewis Hamilton. Last year after Silverstone, Kimi was 18 points behind Lewis. This year, even after four unlucky races, Kimi is tied with Lewis, his primary title contender. I'm pretty sure Kimi is not bothered and feels good things are heading his way.
So then poor Felipe Massa. He had had such a strong first half of the season. Then he first has a pit stop problem in the final qualifying which prevented him from trying for a good lap. He was then compromised for his fuel strategy. And then the wet race and his spins. I would think that after spinning once, and seeing most of the field pass him, he was frustrated. And to spin soon again, and then again, and again - I understood he spun five separate times - this is a race he will want to totally forget. But now Kimi has caught up with him and is tied for points. And if the team will need to make the choice between the two, it now looks rather bleak, for Massa, will Ferrari support their reigning champion, who even with an unlucky pit stop and wrong tyres, and a spin, collected five points; or go with the young driver who can't concentrate and spins five times in a race and makes everybody laugh at the Prancing Horse. Massa is the unhappiest man of the leaders.
And then Kubica? The ultimate poetic justice would have seen Kubica contest the race to the end, finish 7th, take two points, and be joint tied with four on the leader board. That was too much to ask. He had his moment and was unable to finish the race. If that was to happen, then yes, a race where he started from mid-field is of course the time to do it, rather than throw away a likely podium finishing position, like say Webber with his spin in this race.
Still, BMW must be satisfied that again they finished ahead of one of the two top teams. And that their driver pairing is particularly complementary, where Kubica drives with more risks, to outperform on races in the dry, and Heidfeld is Mr sure hands, driving flawlessly in the wet. A good pairing indeed.
This is a wonderful season. But yes, what is it with Red Bull? Webber put his Red Bull onto second and that was not with a lot less fuel than the rivals. Red Bull has been clawing into contention and is very legitimately ahead of Renault, Williams and Toyota. On a good day and with some luck, maybe the opportune pace car or a couple of the front runners take each other out (like Lewis and Kimi in Montreal), Webber might be a surprise winner still this season. That would be delightful. He is not a young kid anymore, and his best days in racing will soon be past, so one would hope he'd have one lucky day in a reasonably fast car, and this season's Red Bull just might be fast enough for him to do it once.
Still, I'd put my money on Heikki being the next new winner in the series..
First, too bad about Heikki. Had it been a dry race, he was well poised to win it. But he seems to be closing in on his first win.
Nick, Quick Nick Heidfeld, again the bride's maid. Almost everyone spun at one point or another, Felipe Massa doing so many spins you'd think he's auditioning for the Royal Ballet, not racing at the British GP. So the steady driving style of Heidfeld was just what these conditions needed. Heikki spun, Kimi spun, Massa spun, Webber spun, almost every racer spun at some point. But Hamilton didn't spin. So Heidfeld played it safe and patient, but was not awarded a win. Yet another second place finish.
And Rubens. Barrichello got one more podium for his long career, and totally, completely, unexpectedly, for the total backmarker Honda team. What a thrill.
So then there was Lewis. He was downcast after his team mate took pole position. He was stuck on fourth on the grid, on the dirty side on a rainy day. He was not known as the best rainy day racer. And after his aggressive move at the start, which got him ahead of the spinning Webber and the blocked Kimi, right alongside Heikki, Lewis was not able to pass his team mate, and was stuck on second. Trailing in the heavy rain, it would have seemed hopeless for him to even consider a win this day.
Yet through trials to victory. Passing Heikki on the fourth lap, on a fast part of the circuit, the rest was suddenly total domination by Lewis Hamilton, at his home race. He has already had his first victory last year. He has also now this season taken the first race win of the season. And he has won at Monaco, the most glamorous and "desirable" race. So the only meaningful race victory left for him to achieve, was his home race, Silverstone, which he won, and in such strong manner that he lapped all but two cars. A fantastic performance. The only thing left for him is to win the championship. But his individual race win must no doubt be the sweetest of his career and remain vividly memorable for all the trouble it was in the pouring English rain.
THREE WAY TIE
And yes, now we have an amazing season indeed. At exact half-point of the season, we have four drivers tied for 48 points, Lewis Hamilton with 3 wins and best next finishes at nominally first in the McLaren, Felipe Massa with 3 wins also at nominally second for Ferrari, and Kimi Raikkonen with 2 wins but also 48 points, nominally third for Ferrari. And just a tantalizing 2 points behind the trio, lurks Robert Kubica in the BMW, with 46 points.
I cannot remember - and just because I cannot remember of course is no guarantee of it actually being true - of any season ever, where at or past the half-point, there were three championship leaders tied in points, or four leaders all within 2 points of each other.
I have to go do some quick searching of some F1 stats to see if this has ever happened. But if last season was the closest racing with three drivers ending the season within one point, we are actually now headed very literally for an even more close season. Remember last season too there was one point when three drivers were even in points, but that was after 3 races, not after 9.
EMOTIONS?
Lewis has to have received a ton of confidence from that win. A ton of it. This was the one win he really wanted and he got it, only on his second attempt. It is the home race for his team and he had all his family there to witness it. And going into the win his team mate had seemed, for the first time, to have the upper hand.
His team mate, Heikki Kovalainen must have felt severely hit by it. This was his race to win, but Lewis snatched it from Heikki, fair and square. Not on pit stops or strategy, but wheel-on-wheel racing on the track. Must hurt.
Kimi, this time he was a victim of unfortunate strategy and unpredictable rain. He was well poised for a podium finish, challenging Lewis even, before the first pit stops. While Lewis changed tyres, Kimi didn't. I don't know if this was a Ferrari pit crew decision or Kimi's decision, but it could have worked out, if the track had not gotten wetter. Kimi has in the past cared for his tyres so well, to last the intermediate wet tyres into de-facto slick tyres, and raced well with them on a drying track.
But as the new heavy spell of rain fell right after Kimi's and Lewis's pit stop, Lewis was on the right tyre choice, new intermediates barely suitable for the rain, and Kimi on the wrong tyres, old worn intermediates totally unsuitable for the deluge. As we saw with the rapid progress by Barrichello, the best tyre choice for the middle stint was full wet tyres, so Kimi went in the wrong direction.
In those ten laps or so that he was on the track, he lost his places and any chance of a podium. This was not a poor performance of Ferrari, nor was it a poor performance by Kimi on the track (and not knowing who decided on not changing tyres). I would think, Kimi is fairly confident that this is an exceptional case of bad luck of wrong tyres for changing conditions - which can happen to anyone - and is no indicator of his true pace. Just one position higher for Kimi and he'd lead the championship right now.
But I bet Kimi has two powerful agents to motivate him. First, his team mate Massa. Massa had a horrible race, and the number of spins must give Kimi confidence, that in bad conditions, he is the far more reliable driver and with half a season to go, he will outdrive his team mate.
But secondly it is the relative position to Lewis Hamilton. Last year after Silverstone, Kimi was 18 points behind Lewis. This year, even after four unlucky races, Kimi is tied with Lewis, his primary title contender. I'm pretty sure Kimi is not bothered and feels good things are heading his way.
So then poor Felipe Massa. He had had such a strong first half of the season. Then he first has a pit stop problem in the final qualifying which prevented him from trying for a good lap. He was then compromised for his fuel strategy. And then the wet race and his spins. I would think that after spinning once, and seeing most of the field pass him, he was frustrated. And to spin soon again, and then again, and again - I understood he spun five separate times - this is a race he will want to totally forget. But now Kimi has caught up with him and is tied for points. And if the team will need to make the choice between the two, it now looks rather bleak, for Massa, will Ferrari support their reigning champion, who even with an unlucky pit stop and wrong tyres, and a spin, collected five points; or go with the young driver who can't concentrate and spins five times in a race and makes everybody laugh at the Prancing Horse. Massa is the unhappiest man of the leaders.
And then Kubica? The ultimate poetic justice would have seen Kubica contest the race to the end, finish 7th, take two points, and be joint tied with four on the leader board. That was too much to ask. He had his moment and was unable to finish the race. If that was to happen, then yes, a race where he started from mid-field is of course the time to do it, rather than throw away a likely podium finishing position, like say Webber with his spin in this race.
Still, BMW must be satisfied that again they finished ahead of one of the two top teams. And that their driver pairing is particularly complementary, where Kubica drives with more risks, to outperform on races in the dry, and Heidfeld is Mr sure hands, driving flawlessly in the wet. A good pairing indeed.
This is a wonderful season. But yes, what is it with Red Bull? Webber put his Red Bull onto second and that was not with a lot less fuel than the rivals. Red Bull has been clawing into contention and is very legitimately ahead of Renault, Williams and Toyota. On a good day and with some luck, maybe the opportune pace car or a couple of the front runners take each other out (like Lewis and Kimi in Montreal), Webber might be a surprise winner still this season. That would be delightful. He is not a young kid anymore, and his best days in racing will soon be past, so one would hope he'd have one lucky day in a reasonably fast car, and this season's Red Bull just might be fast enough for him to do it once.
Still, I'd put my money on Heikki being the next new winner in the series..
Saturday, July 5, 2008
Silverstone Quali - what is it with Finns and this circuit?
Congrats Heikki for his first ever pole position.. And just before he did it, I was really happy for Webber, for the brief two or three seconds that he held that elusive pole before Heikki snatched it away. I would have been very happy also for Red Bull to get their first ever pole position.
But what is it with Finns and this circuit, and in particular the qualifying at Silverstone. Actually, looking at the history, we've had 3 world champions (in four seasons) and only twice the winner of Silverstone's Formula One Grand Prix has been a Finnish driver, with Mika Hakkinen for McLaren in 2001, and Kimi Raikkonen last year when he won it for Ferrari. One might say "below par" performance for the Finnish grand prix champions over the years.
But look at the qualifying at Silverstone, and it tells of a different story. Silverstone is one of the fastest race tracks, requiring that banzai lap mentality, like Monza in Italy and Spa in Belgium, truly maddening speed. And for that qualifying, you need to be at your best. In the most demanding racing series, in their fastest races, and in that qualifying moment, when you need to be at your utmost best.
So, back in the 1980s, the British Grand Prix alternated between Brand's Hatch and Silverstone. The first Finnish world champion, Keke Rosberg was driving for Williams-Honda in 1985 at Silverstone, when he put that Williams on pole position. The first time ever a Finn had taken the pole at Silverstone (Keke had also taken pole at Brand's Hatch in 1982). Keke did not manage to turn it into points, he did not finish the race in 1985. But the record books showed him as the first Finnish pole sitter for the Silverstone GP.
But what a lap it was. Not only the fastest lap of the Silverstone weekend. It was not only the fastest lap of 1985. It was not only the fastest lap ever recorded at Silverstone, it stood to remain the fastest lap ever in any race in Formula One, for the next 16 years.. What is it about Silverstone and the Finnish race drivers?
Mika Hakkinen, our two-time world champion won at Silverstone in 2001, for McLaren-Mercedes. He did not win it from pole but from second on the grid. But prior to that, he had taken the pole position at Silverstone twice before, in 1998 (finishing 2nd) and 1999 (did not finish).
Kimi Raikkonen our third world champ won it finally at Silversone last year 2007 from second on the grid, but he had finished on the pole three years earlier, in 2004.
Now Heikki Kovalainen took his first ever pole position of his F1 career, yes at Silverstone. What is it with Finnish race drivers and that challenge of the speed of Silverstone?
Its not just these top drivers. We've had other drivers in F1 who didn't win races, but who somehow managed to do well at Silverstone. JJ Lehto drove in 1991 for a backmarker team, Dallara-Judd. At Silverstone he totally outclassed his partner and put the Dallara on 11th on the grid. He finished the race 13th.
Mika Salo, early on his career drove for backmarker Tyrrell-Yamaha (a dog of a car) and when he came to Silverstone, he managed to qualify that car on 14th, ahead of his team mate.
Mika Salo late in his career drove for Toyota, which was a pale version of Toyota today, but could perhaps with a lot of generosity, be called a mid-field team in 2002. Came Silverstone, and Salo qualified his Toyota 8th, yes, ahead of his team mate, but was unable to finish the race.
And last year, when Heikki was with the underpowered Renault, he was under fire early in the season outshadowed by Fisichella, but at Silverstone, Heikki pulled it off, qualifying the Renault at 7th ahead of his successful team mate, and better yet, he finished also 7th, ahead of Fisi.
So what is it about Silverstone that brings out this banzai lap out of the Finnish drivers..
Actually, we can go back even further for a bit of trivia. In 1972 the British GP was held at Brand's Hatch. But that year there was a GP at Silverstone as well, not part of Formula One, but there was a Finnish winner of Silverstone that year, by the first-ever Finnish F1 driver. Not driving an F1 car that year, he was the reigning champion of the Interserie class of prototype sportscars (we know them as the Le Mans cars today) Leo won the Silverstone event as one of his six wins in the 9 race season, finishing with a massive lead over the runner-up, to take his second of three consecutive Interserie championships. What is it about Silverstone and Finnish drivers.
Now, as there have been 21 races at Silverstone since 1985 (1986 was held at Brand's Hatch), and there have been 5 pole positions by Finns - and not by one dominating driver like Michael Schumacher of Germany, by four different Finns - that is almost one in four pole positions since 1985 at Silverstone held by Finns. Something quite special about that circuit. And if not on pole, we've seen Mika and Kimi right up there, second or third several times as well. Yes, what is it about Silverstone and Finns?
Must be the speed...
Now, after this celebration of Finnishness, ha-ha, lets get to today's qualifying.
Was an exciting hour. Shame about David Coulthard, would have liked him in the final 10 especially as the Red Bull was more competitive than one could have expected. As this is his last home GP, too bad.. We'll miss the old "square-head" (DC's head looks almost exactly square, very unusual shape, I always wonder about his helmets ha-ha..)
Heikki, great job. Truly great. I honestly hope for him to turn it now into his first GP win of his career. Would be great for him and the team.
Hamilton. What was with it, that he did not even congratulate his team mate when they were waiting for the weigh-in. Lewis seems very heavily overburdened by expectations and pressure. I hope his head is straight for the race. But as to strategy, judging by Hamilton's sour expression, Heikki should be very well fuelled for a good strategy.
Webber. Great front row, would have loved for him to get the pole position. But I'm pretty sure he is fuelled very lightly, will not be in contention for the win. Points yes, but not for the win. The race has been sacrificed for the glory of the front row start.
Kimi at third, he fought hard but didn't quite make it. I think it will be very much up to Kimi vs Heikki - and wouldn't all of Finland love that - and of course the beautiful ending would be a 1-2 finish with Heikki getting his first win. But McLaren has seemed stronger this weekend, so I don't seriously think Kimi has the chance to win, but he might easily run Heikki hard most of the way. As Silverstone is a circuit where overtaking happens, I expect Kimi to get past Webber early on..
Hamilton. Has not seemed happy with his car and setup all weekend. Heikki has gotten the better of this track (ha-ha, Finns and Silverstone). Yes, podium perhaps, but unless an incident or rain changes things, he is the supporing McLaren driver this race.
Alonso. doing well, Renault often do better at this circuit - their home race - than the average. Kubica, couldn't get into it at all for the final Qualifying. Heidfeld will need to lead BMW this race.
But Massa, where was Massa in the last minutes of Qualifying? He didn't seem to be on the track at all. What happened to him?
But yes, we're set for a very entertaining and exciting race at Silverstone, and I do hope it won't rain, as this is well set up for a good race with the pack mixed up a bit, the two championship leaders in mid-field (Massa and Kubica), and with Lewis and Kimi on the second row, chasing Heikki on pole (sorry Webber, you're really not in it). And judging by some of the speed of Alonso, I would not be surprised to see Fernando even in the mix if the strategy is just right and a little bit of luck comes his way.
And as to Donington, it will be a shame to lose Silverstone after next year - especially as it has been so kind to Finnish drivers in its qualifying. Lets see if they do as well in years to come at Donington.
But for now, I can't wait for tomorrow for Silverstone 2008. Go Heikki !!
But what is it with Finns and this circuit, and in particular the qualifying at Silverstone. Actually, looking at the history, we've had 3 world champions (in four seasons) and only twice the winner of Silverstone's Formula One Grand Prix has been a Finnish driver, with Mika Hakkinen for McLaren in 2001, and Kimi Raikkonen last year when he won it for Ferrari. One might say "below par" performance for the Finnish grand prix champions over the years.
But look at the qualifying at Silverstone, and it tells of a different story. Silverstone is one of the fastest race tracks, requiring that banzai lap mentality, like Monza in Italy and Spa in Belgium, truly maddening speed. And for that qualifying, you need to be at your best. In the most demanding racing series, in their fastest races, and in that qualifying moment, when you need to be at your utmost best.
So, back in the 1980s, the British Grand Prix alternated between Brand's Hatch and Silverstone. The first Finnish world champion, Keke Rosberg was driving for Williams-Honda in 1985 at Silverstone, when he put that Williams on pole position. The first time ever a Finn had taken the pole at Silverstone (Keke had also taken pole at Brand's Hatch in 1982). Keke did not manage to turn it into points, he did not finish the race in 1985. But the record books showed him as the first Finnish pole sitter for the Silverstone GP.
But what a lap it was. Not only the fastest lap of the Silverstone weekend. It was not only the fastest lap of 1985. It was not only the fastest lap ever recorded at Silverstone, it stood to remain the fastest lap ever in any race in Formula One, for the next 16 years.. What is it about Silverstone and the Finnish race drivers?
Mika Hakkinen, our two-time world champion won at Silverstone in 2001, for McLaren-Mercedes. He did not win it from pole but from second on the grid. But prior to that, he had taken the pole position at Silverstone twice before, in 1998 (finishing 2nd) and 1999 (did not finish).
Kimi Raikkonen our third world champ won it finally at Silversone last year 2007 from second on the grid, but he had finished on the pole three years earlier, in 2004.
Now Heikki Kovalainen took his first ever pole position of his F1 career, yes at Silverstone. What is it with Finnish race drivers and that challenge of the speed of Silverstone?
Its not just these top drivers. We've had other drivers in F1 who didn't win races, but who somehow managed to do well at Silverstone. JJ Lehto drove in 1991 for a backmarker team, Dallara-Judd. At Silverstone he totally outclassed his partner and put the Dallara on 11th on the grid. He finished the race 13th.
Mika Salo, early on his career drove for backmarker Tyrrell-Yamaha (a dog of a car) and when he came to Silverstone, he managed to qualify that car on 14th, ahead of his team mate.
Mika Salo late in his career drove for Toyota, which was a pale version of Toyota today, but could perhaps with a lot of generosity, be called a mid-field team in 2002. Came Silverstone, and Salo qualified his Toyota 8th, yes, ahead of his team mate, but was unable to finish the race.
And last year, when Heikki was with the underpowered Renault, he was under fire early in the season outshadowed by Fisichella, but at Silverstone, Heikki pulled it off, qualifying the Renault at 7th ahead of his successful team mate, and better yet, he finished also 7th, ahead of Fisi.
So what is it about Silverstone that brings out this banzai lap out of the Finnish drivers..
Actually, we can go back even further for a bit of trivia. In 1972 the British GP was held at Brand's Hatch. But that year there was a GP at Silverstone as well, not part of Formula One, but there was a Finnish winner of Silverstone that year, by the first-ever Finnish F1 driver. Not driving an F1 car that year, he was the reigning champion of the Interserie class of prototype sportscars (we know them as the Le Mans cars today) Leo won the Silverstone event as one of his six wins in the 9 race season, finishing with a massive lead over the runner-up, to take his second of three consecutive Interserie championships. What is it about Silverstone and Finnish drivers.
Now, as there have been 21 races at Silverstone since 1985 (1986 was held at Brand's Hatch), and there have been 5 pole positions by Finns - and not by one dominating driver like Michael Schumacher of Germany, by four different Finns - that is almost one in four pole positions since 1985 at Silverstone held by Finns. Something quite special about that circuit. And if not on pole, we've seen Mika and Kimi right up there, second or third several times as well. Yes, what is it about Silverstone and Finns?
Must be the speed...
Now, after this celebration of Finnishness, ha-ha, lets get to today's qualifying.
Was an exciting hour. Shame about David Coulthard, would have liked him in the final 10 especially as the Red Bull was more competitive than one could have expected. As this is his last home GP, too bad.. We'll miss the old "square-head" (DC's head looks almost exactly square, very unusual shape, I always wonder about his helmets ha-ha..)
Heikki, great job. Truly great. I honestly hope for him to turn it now into his first GP win of his career. Would be great for him and the team.
Hamilton. What was with it, that he did not even congratulate his team mate when they were waiting for the weigh-in. Lewis seems very heavily overburdened by expectations and pressure. I hope his head is straight for the race. But as to strategy, judging by Hamilton's sour expression, Heikki should be very well fuelled for a good strategy.
Webber. Great front row, would have loved for him to get the pole position. But I'm pretty sure he is fuelled very lightly, will not be in contention for the win. Points yes, but not for the win. The race has been sacrificed for the glory of the front row start.
Kimi at third, he fought hard but didn't quite make it. I think it will be very much up to Kimi vs Heikki - and wouldn't all of Finland love that - and of course the beautiful ending would be a 1-2 finish with Heikki getting his first win. But McLaren has seemed stronger this weekend, so I don't seriously think Kimi has the chance to win, but he might easily run Heikki hard most of the way. As Silverstone is a circuit where overtaking happens, I expect Kimi to get past Webber early on..
Hamilton. Has not seemed happy with his car and setup all weekend. Heikki has gotten the better of this track (ha-ha, Finns and Silverstone). Yes, podium perhaps, but unless an incident or rain changes things, he is the supporing McLaren driver this race.
Alonso. doing well, Renault often do better at this circuit - their home race - than the average. Kubica, couldn't get into it at all for the final Qualifying. Heidfeld will need to lead BMW this race.
But Massa, where was Massa in the last minutes of Qualifying? He didn't seem to be on the track at all. What happened to him?
But yes, we're set for a very entertaining and exciting race at Silverstone, and I do hope it won't rain, as this is well set up for a good race with the pack mixed up a bit, the two championship leaders in mid-field (Massa and Kubica), and with Lewis and Kimi on the second row, chasing Heikki on pole (sorry Webber, you're really not in it). And judging by some of the speed of Alonso, I would not be surprised to see Fernando even in the mix if the strategy is just right and a little bit of luck comes his way.
And as to Donington, it will be a shame to lose Silverstone after next year - especially as it has been so kind to Finnish drivers in its qualifying. Lets see if they do as well in years to come at Donington.
But for now, I can't wait for tomorrow for Silverstone 2008. Go Heikki !!
Monday, June 30, 2008
France: 8 Races, 4 different winners only 10 points between them
So now we had France. A boring, processional race. I really hope they don't return to Magny Cours, it is not worthy of F1 racing, there is almost no racing on that circuit.
But before we look at the results, lets go back a year. Last year France was also the 8th race. Last year produced the most competitive F1 season ever, not just at the end, but all through the season. Last year 2007 in F1 at 3 races into the season, 3 different winners. At 8 races four winners each with 2 wins each. At 12 races the four winners had 3 wins each. At 15 races, still 3 racers in contention and each had 4 wins each. And into the final race, those 3 were mathematically in contention, the guy with the least points won the race and won the championship by one point, with the two others tied at 1 point behind the world champion.
So last season was the most evenly contested season ever, with 3 racers genuinely contesting it from the first race to the last, and 4 drivers in contention through much of the season. Two manufacturers running neck-and-neck.
But, last season, after the French Grand Prix, even though each of Hamilton, Alonso, Massa and Raikkonen had 2 wins each, Hamilton's lead over Kimi was a massive 22 points. Kimi had 42 points, Lewis had managed more than 50% more than that, at 64 points in the first 8 races.
Ok, then the French results - Kimi led the race and seemed to be a clear winner, until he had a problem with the exhaust and had to let Massa pass. Massa won, Kimi second, and Trulli surprised all with a Toyota third place. Kovalainen was the best McLaren at 4th and Kubica's worst finish of the season (if we don't count Australia where he did not finish) at fifth.
Now lets look at the season in 2008. Might we be blessed with perhaps even a more competitive season than last year's.
So to start with, the first 3 races - 3 different winners (like last year). Now at France and the 8 race point, yes we have 4 different winners but not that evenly matched in wins, Massa has 3, Lewis and Kimi have 2, and Kubica has 1. So in this way, the season is "not as competitive" as last season.
Well, hold on. First, last year by this point it was clear the championship would only between Ferrari and McLaren drivers. This year it is between Ferrari, McLaren and BMW.. So already by this count, we have a more competitive season.
But lets look at the points. Last year at France, the difference between first (Hamilton) and fourth (Raikkonen) was 22 points. This year the difference between first (Massa) and fourth (Hamilton) is.. ten points.
TEN points between first and FOURTH. Wow. This is EXTREMELY close. We may truly have an epic season.
I do like it, that last year's best car is not running away with it - McLaren is not the best this season, in fact McLaren is third in constructor points. And last year's champion is not running away with it, Kimi is third in the championship points with 42.
Now, while we are comparing the two seasons at the 8 race point, lets look a bit at the main rivals.
Lewis Hamilton. Last season he was Mr Consistency, finishing on the podium every race through France and amassed 64 points. He had no failures to finish and very amazingly neither did the sister McLaren driven by Alonso. A perfect car so far. And Hamilton had just started his winnings three races earlier in Canada and won also in the USA Grand Prix, so the rookie had also started winning. The world was smiling at Hamilton.
What a difference a year makes. This year Hamilton has had one retirement - and that was his own fault crashing into Kimi in Canada, so it wasn't that the McLaren was not reliable. But Lewis had only scored 38 points, just more than half the points he had last year. Yes, he still has two wins this season, but when he didn't win, he was not on the podium, he has only 2 other podiums this season in addition to his two wins. He is now more a Mr Inconsistency.
Obviously no point in comparing Kubica to last year. Last year at this point he had half the points of Heidfeld, now he has nearly twice the points that Heidfeld has. Kubica has grown and become a far greater driver this season, but obviously, so too has the BMW-Sauber car improved tons from last year.
But lets look at Felipe Massa. Last year after France, 47 points and two wins. This year Massa has 48 points and three wins. Last year he was third in the Championship and 17 points adrift of Hamilton. This year he leads the championship two poins ahead of Kubica and 10 points ahead of Hamilton. Last year Massa was five points ahead of Kimi, this year he is six points ahead of Kimi. Last year he had 2 wins and 3 podiums, this year its 3 wins and 2 podiums. Massa should be smiling..
..except for Mr Iceman. Consider these stats for Kimi after 8 races.
Kimi last year 2 wins. This year 2 wins. Last year 2 other podiums. This year 2 other podiums. Last year Kimi 42 points? This year 42 points. Last year Kimi was behind Massa by 5 points, this year by 6 points.
Last years in the first 8 races Kimi was 2-6 behind in qualifying to Massa and 5 points behind in points. Then in the remaining 9 races, Kimi totally trashed Massa and outscored him by 21 points from Silverstone to Brazil, to finish ahead of Massa by not a hair, but by an overwhelming 16 points. Yes, perhaps one or two of Kimi's point scores were due to Ferrari team orders towards the end of the season, but that does not explain away even half of the points that Kimi outscored Massa.
So yes, Mr Iceman.. The true Mr Consistency. If he could win the championship last year when two time champion Alonso was in a better car and Hamilton in a better car - and Massa ahead of him at this point, now that Kimi finds Alonso in a weak Renault and Hamilton behind him, he certainly does not fear the fact that Massa has 3 wins to his 2, and leads Kimi by a measerly 6 points..
Last 3 races Kimi has had spectacularly bad luck, in Monaco he slid on a slippery surface on worn tyres from 5th place and crashed into Sutil. Had he finished behind Sutil in that race, he'd now be tied for second. But yes, we might say that this was partially his fault, perhaps.
In Canada it was certainly not Kimi's fault. He had legitimately passed Hamilton in the pit stop and was poised to win the race, until Lewis crashed into Kimi and took him out of the race. Obviously if Kimi had even come second in the race with Kubica still winning, Kimi would now lead the championship.
And the rare technical problem in France, when Kimi led and his exhaust pipe got loose and caused severe problems. Kimi was leading the race easily from Massa prior to that, and still finished second. Had they finished with Kimi first and Massa second, today Massa would be tied with Hamilton and Kimi only 2 points behind.
Yes, Kimi has had a severe case of bad luck the last three races. But inspite of all of that, the Iceman is the reigning champion and only six points from the lead. And his "strongest" rival, Hamilton, is behind Kimi at this point.
Last season Kimi had embarked on a near-hopeless task of fighting from 22 points behind at this point, when it was clear the McLaren was exceptionally durable and the fastest car. This season Kimi sees that the McLaren is not as fast nor as durable, and in fact it is the Ferrari which is the fastest car this season.
Kimi has never had the luxury of driving the fastest car of the season, and yet he's finished twice as the runner up in the F1 Championship and won it once, when his car was not the fastest.
Now he has the fastest car.
And as to Massa being 6 points ahead of Kimi? I'm sure the Iceman sleeps well, remembering that last year he was fourth 22 points behind the leader, 18 points behind the double-world champion (Alonso) and 5 points behind his own team mate.
This time he is 4 points ahead of his strongest rival (Hamilton). He is only 4 points behind the newcomer to the contest, Kubica, in the unproven BMW; and only 6 points behind the championship leader and his team mate, Massa.
He knows its motor racing, so there will be incidents (Montreal), accidents (Monaco) and technical problems (Magny Cours). As these "M-contests" are now past, it is time for Kimi's luck to turn and him to return to winning ways. I'd say the Iceman is the one most likely to pull it out this season.
But as the four guys are only 10 points between them, this is truly a fiercely competitive season. I love it..
Oh PS, and how about Heikki? Kovalainen is at 20 points, nearly half the points of Hamilton. Heikki has had a lot of bad luck, but he is not really convincing anyone that he deserves that second McLaren seat. If I was told that at 8 races we'd have 4 different winners and one of them a first-time winner, I'd have guessed that to be Heikki, not Kubica. I think Kovalainen is underperforming and must be feeling some pressure at McLaren. Lets hope he gets his season turned around, before he finds himself in a Toyota or Honda for next season..
But before we look at the results, lets go back a year. Last year France was also the 8th race. Last year produced the most competitive F1 season ever, not just at the end, but all through the season. Last year 2007 in F1 at 3 races into the season, 3 different winners. At 8 races four winners each with 2 wins each. At 12 races the four winners had 3 wins each. At 15 races, still 3 racers in contention and each had 4 wins each. And into the final race, those 3 were mathematically in contention, the guy with the least points won the race and won the championship by one point, with the two others tied at 1 point behind the world champion.
So last season was the most evenly contested season ever, with 3 racers genuinely contesting it from the first race to the last, and 4 drivers in contention through much of the season. Two manufacturers running neck-and-neck.
But, last season, after the French Grand Prix, even though each of Hamilton, Alonso, Massa and Raikkonen had 2 wins each, Hamilton's lead over Kimi was a massive 22 points. Kimi had 42 points, Lewis had managed more than 50% more than that, at 64 points in the first 8 races.
Ok, then the French results - Kimi led the race and seemed to be a clear winner, until he had a problem with the exhaust and had to let Massa pass. Massa won, Kimi second, and Trulli surprised all with a Toyota third place. Kovalainen was the best McLaren at 4th and Kubica's worst finish of the season (if we don't count Australia where he did not finish) at fifth.
Now lets look at the season in 2008. Might we be blessed with perhaps even a more competitive season than last year's.
So to start with, the first 3 races - 3 different winners (like last year). Now at France and the 8 race point, yes we have 4 different winners but not that evenly matched in wins, Massa has 3, Lewis and Kimi have 2, and Kubica has 1. So in this way, the season is "not as competitive" as last season.
Well, hold on. First, last year by this point it was clear the championship would only between Ferrari and McLaren drivers. This year it is between Ferrari, McLaren and BMW.. So already by this count, we have a more competitive season.
But lets look at the points. Last year at France, the difference between first (Hamilton) and fourth (Raikkonen) was 22 points. This year the difference between first (Massa) and fourth (Hamilton) is.. ten points.
TEN points between first and FOURTH. Wow. This is EXTREMELY close. We may truly have an epic season.
I do like it, that last year's best car is not running away with it - McLaren is not the best this season, in fact McLaren is third in constructor points. And last year's champion is not running away with it, Kimi is third in the championship points with 42.
Now, while we are comparing the two seasons at the 8 race point, lets look a bit at the main rivals.
Lewis Hamilton. Last season he was Mr Consistency, finishing on the podium every race through France and amassed 64 points. He had no failures to finish and very amazingly neither did the sister McLaren driven by Alonso. A perfect car so far. And Hamilton had just started his winnings three races earlier in Canada and won also in the USA Grand Prix, so the rookie had also started winning. The world was smiling at Hamilton.
What a difference a year makes. This year Hamilton has had one retirement - and that was his own fault crashing into Kimi in Canada, so it wasn't that the McLaren was not reliable. But Lewis had only scored 38 points, just more than half the points he had last year. Yes, he still has two wins this season, but when he didn't win, he was not on the podium, he has only 2 other podiums this season in addition to his two wins. He is now more a Mr Inconsistency.
Obviously no point in comparing Kubica to last year. Last year at this point he had half the points of Heidfeld, now he has nearly twice the points that Heidfeld has. Kubica has grown and become a far greater driver this season, but obviously, so too has the BMW-Sauber car improved tons from last year.
But lets look at Felipe Massa. Last year after France, 47 points and two wins. This year Massa has 48 points and three wins. Last year he was third in the Championship and 17 points adrift of Hamilton. This year he leads the championship two poins ahead of Kubica and 10 points ahead of Hamilton. Last year Massa was five points ahead of Kimi, this year he is six points ahead of Kimi. Last year he had 2 wins and 3 podiums, this year its 3 wins and 2 podiums. Massa should be smiling..
..except for Mr Iceman. Consider these stats for Kimi after 8 races.
Kimi last year 2 wins. This year 2 wins. Last year 2 other podiums. This year 2 other podiums. Last year Kimi 42 points? This year 42 points. Last year Kimi was behind Massa by 5 points, this year by 6 points.
Last years in the first 8 races Kimi was 2-6 behind in qualifying to Massa and 5 points behind in points. Then in the remaining 9 races, Kimi totally trashed Massa and outscored him by 21 points from Silverstone to Brazil, to finish ahead of Massa by not a hair, but by an overwhelming 16 points. Yes, perhaps one or two of Kimi's point scores were due to Ferrari team orders towards the end of the season, but that does not explain away even half of the points that Kimi outscored Massa.
So yes, Mr Iceman.. The true Mr Consistency. If he could win the championship last year when two time champion Alonso was in a better car and Hamilton in a better car - and Massa ahead of him at this point, now that Kimi finds Alonso in a weak Renault and Hamilton behind him, he certainly does not fear the fact that Massa has 3 wins to his 2, and leads Kimi by a measerly 6 points..
Last 3 races Kimi has had spectacularly bad luck, in Monaco he slid on a slippery surface on worn tyres from 5th place and crashed into Sutil. Had he finished behind Sutil in that race, he'd now be tied for second. But yes, we might say that this was partially his fault, perhaps.
In Canada it was certainly not Kimi's fault. He had legitimately passed Hamilton in the pit stop and was poised to win the race, until Lewis crashed into Kimi and took him out of the race. Obviously if Kimi had even come second in the race with Kubica still winning, Kimi would now lead the championship.
And the rare technical problem in France, when Kimi led and his exhaust pipe got loose and caused severe problems. Kimi was leading the race easily from Massa prior to that, and still finished second. Had they finished with Kimi first and Massa second, today Massa would be tied with Hamilton and Kimi only 2 points behind.
Yes, Kimi has had a severe case of bad luck the last three races. But inspite of all of that, the Iceman is the reigning champion and only six points from the lead. And his "strongest" rival, Hamilton, is behind Kimi at this point.
Last season Kimi had embarked on a near-hopeless task of fighting from 22 points behind at this point, when it was clear the McLaren was exceptionally durable and the fastest car. This season Kimi sees that the McLaren is not as fast nor as durable, and in fact it is the Ferrari which is the fastest car this season.
Kimi has never had the luxury of driving the fastest car of the season, and yet he's finished twice as the runner up in the F1 Championship and won it once, when his car was not the fastest.
Now he has the fastest car.
And as to Massa being 6 points ahead of Kimi? I'm sure the Iceman sleeps well, remembering that last year he was fourth 22 points behind the leader, 18 points behind the double-world champion (Alonso) and 5 points behind his own team mate.
This time he is 4 points ahead of his strongest rival (Hamilton). He is only 4 points behind the newcomer to the contest, Kubica, in the unproven BMW; and only 6 points behind the championship leader and his team mate, Massa.
He knows its motor racing, so there will be incidents (Montreal), accidents (Monaco) and technical problems (Magny Cours). As these "M-contests" are now past, it is time for Kimi's luck to turn and him to return to winning ways. I'd say the Iceman is the one most likely to pull it out this season.
But as the four guys are only 10 points between them, this is truly a fiercely competitive season. I love it..
Oh PS, and how about Heikki? Kovalainen is at 20 points, nearly half the points of Hamilton. Heikki has had a lot of bad luck, but he is not really convincing anyone that he deserves that second McLaren seat. If I was told that at 8 races we'd have 4 different winners and one of them a first-time winner, I'd have guessed that to be Heikki, not Kubica. I think Kovalainen is underperforming and must be feeling some pressure at McLaren. Lets hope he gets his season turned around, before he finds himself in a Toyota or Honda for next season..
Then Demolition Derby part 2 - Canada, and a first-time winner!
Oh, Canada.. Yes, that Hamilton mistake in the pit lane. Demolition Derby part 2, and another race where Kimi had fought back to be competitive, and a crash ruined it. This time it was Hamilton crashing into Kimi and some might say it was poetic justice for Kimi's crash into Sutil in Monaco.
But yes, this then brought us that amazing end to the race, hoping and wishing for Kubica to hold on without any fateful pace cars or other incidents, so he's get his maiden win. And he did win it.
That was brilliant.. First win for Kubica, the first ever F1 winner for Poland, and the first ever win for BMW (and former Sauber) as a constructor. Congratulations all around.
Even more amazingly, both Kubica and BMW took the lead in the championship. And poor Quick Nick Heidfeld, has ever a second place felt so empty as his that day, when he brought the first-ever 1-2 for BMW but this was not his day. Nick had led the race, and with several incidents and pace cars, a little bit of luck his way, and Heidfeld would have been the first-ever BMW winner. As Ferrari and McLaren were bumbling this weekend, it was destined to be BMW in any case..
Congrats Robert and BMW !!
But yes, this then brought us that amazing end to the race, hoping and wishing for Kubica to hold on without any fateful pace cars or other incidents, so he's get his maiden win. And he did win it.
That was brilliant.. First win for Kubica, the first ever F1 winner for Poland, and the first ever win for BMW (and former Sauber) as a constructor. Congratulations all around.
Even more amazingly, both Kubica and BMW took the lead in the championship. And poor Quick Nick Heidfeld, has ever a second place felt so empty as his that day, when he brought the first-ever 1-2 for BMW but this was not his day. Nick had led the race, and with several incidents and pace cars, a little bit of luck his way, and Heidfeld would have been the first-ever BMW winner. As Ferrari and McLaren were bumbling this weekend, it was destined to be BMW in any case..
Congrats Robert and BMW !!
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