Monday, July 7, 2008

How close is close, at Silverstone four drivers within 2 points, historical comparison

I took a quick stroll through historical stats. How exceptional is this season with three drivers tied at 48 points by mid-season and the four top drivers all within 2 points?

I only looked at the season point scoring status at the time of the British Grand Prix, which tends to be roughly at the middle of the F1 calendar. But I did not take the mathematical half point. Obviously one driver having a good or bad race can alter the situation quite greatly from one race to the next, remembering Lewis was 10points behind Massa only this Saturday.. So this is certainly an incomplete analysis, but on quick-and-dirty view, and as the F1 circus is so heavily centered in Britain, and the British GP tends to be at half-point, I think its a fairly representative sampling.

I only went back to 1963, because before that there were less than 10 races per season, so "mid point" British GP only had 4 or 5 races and it is not really that impressive to have near parity with only a few races to consider.

Now, going back through those stats very quickly reveals and reminds, that we have often very boring seasons, when one driver totally dominates the season, say like Michael Schumacher in 2002, running away with the season and the championship not being of any real interest at about half point. Luckily that is not the common case, but there are many of those.

Then the typical scenario is two drivers only being meaningful contestants for the season, like say classic Senna vs Prost duels and Schumacher vs Hakkinen contests. That is the norm.

It is very rare for us to have three drivers in close proximity, within a few points of each other. That of course doesn't mean that the third or fourth placed driver at mid-season cannot win it - Kimi was 18 points behind last season after Silverstone and won the season, but I'm now looking for true "nail-biters" - when have we had a season like this one.

So, lets start with last season. The season ended with Kimi at 110, Hamilton and Alonso both at 109 points and Massa with 94. As I've said many times, it was the most closely contested season, as the drivers were so evenly matched all through the season by their wins. But while the wins were evenly spaced, the points were not. At Silverstone, the British GP was 9th out of 17 races last year, the leader Hamilton was 12 points ahead of second place Alonso, 18 points clear of Raikkonen and 19 points from Massa. So the split between first and third was 18 points, and between first and fourth was 19 points. That is our "benchmark" to compare other close seasons.

We then really have to go far into history to find a truly competitive season next. But the 1987 season was an epic battle between Piquet, Mansell, Senna and Prost (wow, four great champions, and Piquet took it that year). The UK race was a bit before mid point as the 7th race of a 16 race season. And like this year, these four drivers were in three different cars, Piquet and Mansell in Williams, Senna in Lotus and Prost in McLaren. How close was it? Very close. The top 3 were within 3 points of each other and the top four within 5 points. Second and third place were tied for 30 points.

Another very close season, not quite as close as 1987, was the 1977 season, when it was between Lauda, Scheckter, Andretti and Reutemann. Also four drivers in three cars, Lauda and Reutemann in Ferraris, Scheckter in Wolf, and Andretti in Lotus. The British GP was 10th of 16, a bit past mid-point. And the top 3 drivers were within 4 points, very tight, but the top 4 drivers were within 12 points, not that close. None of the four were tied.

The previously most competitive season, at the British GP measurement point, was even further back, in 1974, when the British GP was 10th out of 15, so actually two thirds to the back of the season. This was at the era of Fittipaldi (who won the season) and the early part of Lauda's career. Lauda in a McLaren led at half point by one point ahead of Fittipaldi in a Ferrari, with his team mate Regazzoni in the sister Ferrari two points behind, tied with Scheckter in the Tyrrell. The split between the top 3 drivers was 3 points, and the split between the top 4 drivers, was also only 3 points. And the third and fourth place drivers were tied.

Until this season, that was the most close season, by the British GP. The split between the top 3 drivers was 3 points, and also the split from first to fourth in the season was 3 points. (fifth place was very far behind this quartet)

Now this season. The British GP is the 9th of 18 races, the mid-point. We have 3 drivers tied for the lead, so the top three drivers are split by zero points, and the top four drivers are split by only 2 points. And the four drivers are in cars of three manufacturers (McLaren, Ferrari and BMW). And the three leading drivers obviously are tied. This is more close as the championship points contest, than any previous season (back to the season of 1963) when measured at the point of the British GP.

Yeah, I love it. You could not ask for more of a Formula One season, could you?

Three way tie at mid-season, two points separate top 4 drivers from 3 teams

Wow, Silverstone.

First, too bad about Heikki. Had it been a dry race, he was well poised to win it. But he seems to be closing in on his first win.

Nick, Quick Nick Heidfeld, again the bride's maid. Almost everyone spun at one point or another, Felipe Massa doing so many spins you'd think he's auditioning for the Royal Ballet, not racing at the British GP. So the steady driving style of Heidfeld was just what these conditions needed. Heikki spun, Kimi spun, Massa spun, Webber spun, almost every racer spun at some point. But Hamilton didn't spin. So Heidfeld played it safe and patient, but was not awarded a win. Yet another second place finish.

And Rubens. Barrichello got one more podium for his long career, and totally, completely, unexpectedly, for the total backmarker Honda team. What a thrill.

So then there was Lewis. He was downcast after his team mate took pole position. He was stuck on fourth on the grid, on the dirty side on a rainy day. He was not known as the best rainy day racer. And after his aggressive move at the start, which got him ahead of the spinning Webber and the blocked Kimi, right alongside Heikki, Lewis was not able to pass his team mate, and was stuck on second. Trailing in the heavy rain, it would have seemed hopeless for him to even consider a win this day.

Yet through trials to victory. Passing Heikki on the fourth lap, on a fast part of the circuit, the rest was suddenly total domination by Lewis Hamilton, at his home race. He has already had his first victory last year. He has also now this season taken the first race win of the season. And he has won at Monaco, the most glamorous and "desirable" race. So the only meaningful race victory left for him to achieve, was his home race, Silverstone, which he won, and in such strong manner that he lapped all but two cars. A fantastic performance. The only thing left for him is to win the championship. But his individual race win must no doubt be the sweetest of his career and remain vividly memorable for all the trouble it was in the pouring English rain.

THREE WAY TIE

And yes, now we have an amazing season indeed. At exact half-point of the season, we have four drivers tied for 48 points, Lewis Hamilton with 3 wins and best next finishes at nominally first in the McLaren, Felipe Massa with 3 wins also at nominally second for Ferrari, and Kimi Raikkonen with 2 wins but also 48 points, nominally third for Ferrari. And just a tantalizing 2 points behind the trio, lurks Robert Kubica in the BMW, with 46 points.

I cannot remember - and just because I cannot remember of course is no guarantee of it actually being true - of any season ever, where at or past the half-point, there were three championship leaders tied in points, or four leaders all within 2 points of each other.

I have to go do some quick searching of some F1 stats to see if this has ever happened. But if last season was the closest racing with three drivers ending the season within one point, we are actually now headed very literally for an even more close season. Remember last season too there was one point when three drivers were even in points, but that was after 3 races, not after 9.

EMOTIONS?

Lewis has to have received a ton of confidence from that win. A ton of it. This was the one win he really wanted and he got it, only on his second attempt. It is the home race for his team and he had all his family there to witness it. And going into the win his team mate had seemed, for the first time, to have the upper hand.

His team mate, Heikki Kovalainen must have felt severely hit by it. This was his race to win, but Lewis snatched it from Heikki, fair and square. Not on pit stops or strategy, but wheel-on-wheel racing on the track. Must hurt.

Kimi, this time he was a victim of unfortunate strategy and unpredictable rain. He was well poised for a podium finish, challenging Lewis even, before the first pit stops. While Lewis changed tyres, Kimi didn't. I don't know if this was a Ferrari pit crew decision or Kimi's decision, but it could have worked out, if the track had not gotten wetter. Kimi has in the past cared for his tyres so well, to last the intermediate wet tyres into de-facto slick tyres, and raced well with them on a drying track.

But as the new heavy spell of rain fell right after Kimi's and Lewis's pit stop, Lewis was on the right tyre choice, new intermediates barely suitable for the rain, and Kimi on the wrong tyres, old worn intermediates totally unsuitable for the deluge. As we saw with the rapid progress by Barrichello, the best tyre choice for the middle stint was full wet tyres, so Kimi went in the wrong direction.

In those ten laps or so that he was on the track, he lost his places and any chance of a podium. This was not a poor performance of Ferrari, nor was it a poor performance by Kimi on the track (and not knowing who decided on not changing tyres). I would think, Kimi is fairly confident that this is an exceptional case of bad luck of wrong tyres for changing conditions - which can happen to anyone - and is no indicator of his true pace. Just one position higher for Kimi and he'd lead the championship right now.

But I bet Kimi has two powerful agents to motivate him. First, his team mate Massa. Massa had a horrible race, and the number of spins must give Kimi confidence, that in bad conditions, he is the far more reliable driver and with half a season to go, he will outdrive his team mate.

But secondly it is the relative position to Lewis Hamilton. Last year after Silverstone, Kimi was 18 points behind Lewis. This year, even after four unlucky races, Kimi is tied with Lewis, his primary title contender. I'm pretty sure Kimi is not bothered and feels good things are heading his way.

So then poor Felipe Massa. He had had such a strong first half of the season. Then he first has a pit stop problem in the final qualifying which prevented him from trying for a good lap. He was then compromised for his fuel strategy. And then the wet race and his spins. I would think that after spinning once, and seeing most of the field pass him, he was frustrated. And to spin soon again, and then again, and again - I understood he spun five separate times - this is a race he will want to totally forget. But now Kimi has caught up with him and is tied for points. And if the team will need to make the choice between the two, it now looks rather bleak, for Massa, will Ferrari support their reigning champion, who even with an unlucky pit stop and wrong tyres, and a spin, collected five points; or go with the young driver who can't concentrate and spins five times in a race and makes everybody laugh at the Prancing Horse. Massa is the unhappiest man of the leaders.

And then Kubica? The ultimate poetic justice would have seen Kubica contest the race to the end, finish 7th, take two points, and be joint tied with four on the leader board. That was too much to ask. He had his moment and was unable to finish the race. If that was to happen, then yes, a race where he started from mid-field is of course the time to do it, rather than throw away a likely podium finishing position, like say Webber with his spin in this race.

Still, BMW must be satisfied that again they finished ahead of one of the two top teams. And that their driver pairing is particularly complementary, where Kubica drives with more risks, to outperform on races in the dry, and Heidfeld is Mr sure hands, driving flawlessly in the wet. A good pairing indeed.

This is a wonderful season. But yes, what is it with Red Bull? Webber put his Red Bull onto second and that was not with a lot less fuel than the rivals. Red Bull has been clawing into contention and is very legitimately ahead of Renault, Williams and Toyota. On a good day and with some luck, maybe the opportune pace car or a couple of the front runners take each other out (like Lewis and Kimi in Montreal), Webber might be a surprise winner still this season. That would be delightful. He is not a young kid anymore, and his best days in racing will soon be past, so one would hope he'd have one lucky day in a reasonably fast car, and this season's Red Bull just might be fast enough for him to do it once.

Still, I'd put my money on Heikki being the next new winner in the series..

Saturday, July 5, 2008

Silverstone Quali - what is it with Finns and this circuit?

Congrats Heikki for his first ever pole position.. And just before he did it, I was really happy for Webber, for the brief two or three seconds that he held that elusive pole before Heikki snatched it away. I would have been very happy also for Red Bull to get their first ever pole position.

But what is it with Finns and this circuit, and in particular the qualifying at Silverstone. Actually, looking at the history, we've had 3 world champions (in four seasons) and only twice the winner of Silverstone's Formula One Grand Prix has been a Finnish driver, with Mika Hakkinen for McLaren in 2001, and Kimi Raikkonen last year when he won it for Ferrari. One might say "below par" performance for the Finnish grand prix champions over the years.

But look at the qualifying at Silverstone, and it tells of a different story. Silverstone is one of the fastest race tracks, requiring that banzai lap mentality, like Monza in Italy and Spa in Belgium, truly maddening speed. And for that qualifying, you need to be at your best. In the most demanding racing series, in their fastest races, and in that qualifying moment, when you need to be at your utmost best.

So, back in the 1980s, the British Grand Prix alternated between Brand's Hatch and Silverstone. The first Finnish world champion, Keke Rosberg was driving for Williams-Honda in 1985 at Silverstone, when he put that Williams on pole position. The first time ever a Finn had taken the pole at Silverstone (Keke had also taken pole at Brand's Hatch in 1982). Keke did not manage to turn it into points, he did not finish the race in 1985. But the record books showed him as the first Finnish pole sitter for the Silverstone GP.

But what a lap it was. Not only the fastest lap of the Silverstone weekend. It was not only the fastest lap of 1985. It was not only the fastest lap ever recorded at Silverstone, it stood to remain the fastest lap ever in any race in Formula One, for the next 16 years.. What is it about Silverstone and the Finnish race drivers?

Mika Hakkinen, our two-time world champion won at Silverstone in 2001, for McLaren-Mercedes. He did not win it from pole but from second on the grid. But prior to that, he had taken the pole position at Silverstone twice before, in 1998 (finishing 2nd) and 1999 (did not finish).

Kimi Raikkonen our third world champ won it finally at Silversone last year 2007 from second on the grid, but he had finished on the pole three years earlier, in 2004.

Now Heikki Kovalainen took his first ever pole position of his F1 career, yes at Silverstone. What is it with Finnish race drivers and that challenge of the speed of Silverstone?

Its not just these top drivers. We've had other drivers in F1 who didn't win races, but who somehow managed to do well at Silverstone. JJ Lehto drove in 1991 for a backmarker team, Dallara-Judd. At Silverstone he totally outclassed his partner and put the Dallara on 11th on the grid. He finished the race 13th.

Mika Salo, early on his career drove for backmarker Tyrrell-Yamaha (a dog of a car) and when he came to Silverstone, he managed to qualify that car on 14th, ahead of his team mate.

Mika Salo late in his career drove for Toyota, which was a pale version of Toyota today, but could perhaps with a lot of generosity, be called a mid-field team in 2002. Came Silverstone, and Salo qualified his Toyota 8th, yes, ahead of his team mate, but was unable to finish the race.

And last year, when Heikki was with the underpowered Renault, he was under fire early in the season outshadowed by Fisichella, but at Silverstone, Heikki pulled it off, qualifying the Renault at 7th ahead of his successful team mate, and better yet, he finished also 7th, ahead of Fisi.

So what is it about Silverstone that brings out this banzai lap out of the Finnish drivers..

Actually, we can go back even further for a bit of trivia. In 1972 the British GP was held at Brand's Hatch. But that year there was a GP at Silverstone as well, not part of Formula One, but there was a Finnish winner of Silverstone that year, by the first-ever Finnish F1 driver. Not driving an F1 car that year, he was the reigning champion of the Interserie class of prototype sportscars (we know them as the Le Mans cars today) Leo won the Silverstone event as one of his six wins in the 9 race season, finishing with a massive lead over the runner-up, to take his second of three consecutive Interserie championships. What is it about Silverstone and Finnish drivers.

Now, as there have been 21 races at Silverstone since 1985 (1986 was held at Brand's Hatch), and there have been 5 pole positions by Finns - and not by one dominating driver like Michael Schumacher of Germany, by four different Finns - that is almost one in four pole positions since 1985 at Silverstone held by Finns. Something quite special about that circuit. And if not on pole, we've seen Mika and Kimi right up there, second or third several times as well. Yes, what is it about Silverstone and Finns?

Must be the speed...

Now, after this celebration of Finnishness, ha-ha, lets get to today's qualifying.

Was an exciting hour. Shame about David Coulthard, would have liked him in the final 10 especially as the Red Bull was more competitive than one could have expected. As this is his last home GP, too bad.. We'll miss the old "square-head" (DC's head looks almost exactly square, very unusual shape, I always wonder about his helmets ha-ha..)

Heikki, great job. Truly great. I honestly hope for him to turn it now into his first GP win of his career. Would be great for him and the team.

Hamilton. What was with it, that he did not even congratulate his team mate when they were waiting for the weigh-in. Lewis seems very heavily overburdened by expectations and pressure. I hope his head is straight for the race. But as to strategy, judging by Hamilton's sour expression, Heikki should be very well fuelled for a good strategy.

Webber. Great front row, would have loved for him to get the pole position. But I'm pretty sure he is fuelled very lightly, will not be in contention for the win. Points yes, but not for the win. The race has been sacrificed for the glory of the front row start.

Kimi at third, he fought hard but didn't quite make it. I think it will be very much up to Kimi vs Heikki - and wouldn't all of Finland love that - and of course the beautiful ending would be a 1-2 finish with Heikki getting his first win. But McLaren has seemed stronger this weekend, so I don't seriously think Kimi has the chance to win, but he might easily run Heikki hard most of the way. As Silverstone is a circuit where overtaking happens, I expect Kimi to get past Webber early on..

Hamilton. Has not seemed happy with his car and setup all weekend. Heikki has gotten the better of this track (ha-ha, Finns and Silverstone). Yes, podium perhaps, but unless an incident or rain changes things, he is the supporing McLaren driver this race.

Alonso. doing well, Renault often do better at this circuit - their home race - than the average. Kubica, couldn't get into it at all for the final Qualifying. Heidfeld will need to lead BMW this race.

But Massa, where was Massa in the last minutes of Qualifying? He didn't seem to be on the track at all. What happened to him?

But yes, we're set for a very entertaining and exciting race at Silverstone, and I do hope it won't rain, as this is well set up for a good race with the pack mixed up a bit, the two championship leaders in mid-field (Massa and Kubica), and with Lewis and Kimi on the second row, chasing Heikki on pole (sorry Webber, you're really not in it). And judging by some of the speed of Alonso, I would not be surprised to see Fernando even in the mix if the strategy is just right and a little bit of luck comes his way.

And as to Donington, it will be a shame to lose Silverstone after next year - especially as it has been so kind to Finnish drivers in its qualifying. Lets see if they do as well in years to come at Donington.

But for now, I can't wait for tomorrow for Silverstone 2008. Go Heikki !!